Build shop now or wait until 2023?

[Kansas_Husker]

I need some help from you Rockslide experts!

I’m building a new 40’ x 60‘ shop either this fall or next year in 2023. Wanted to throw this out to some contractors or knowledgeable folks that have an idea what material costs may do in the next 12 months. Build now or wait?

Not borrowing $$$ so interest rate changes are irrelevant.

Thank you for your input!

 

[thinhorn_AK]

My 40x60 shop was built in 2020, glad one not looking for materials right now.

 

[Desk Jockey]

Lots of smart people saying we have passed peak inflation RATE, meaning the rate of inflation is gonna slow but we will still be facing above average inflation for a while. While that seems to make sense to me, I wouldn’t say we are out of the woods for a bit of a recession and maybe a bubble burst on the housing front. If that happens, best guess is it isn’t as bad or as long as 2008. All that goes out the window if Russia or china start doing weird shit.

sounds like you have the money set aside and it isn’t money you need to stay afloat.

if that is the case, then one way to think about it, is that inflation is haircutting the value of that money you are sitting on. So depending on where inflation goes, that money will buy 4-6% less next year than it does now.

lumber Futures were $305 when the pandemic started. They spiked at $1500. Now they are $650. I am not seeing $80 sheets of ply wood anymore, but plumber prices in my area are still up and it will take a while before those cheaper prices filter to consumers. Housing construction is also slowing down so that should take some froth out of the lumber market. I wouldn’t say it is a good time to build something based on materials costs but I also wouldn’t say it is likely to be much better in a year unless the bottom drops out of the economy and lumber demand craters. I think the lumber industry and a lot of others are liking these prices and any return to pre pandemic levels will be slow In anything but a serious recession / demand drop off.

rambling a bit, but I guess I would say build now as long as you have enough money put away that you can withstand a nasty little recession. I can’t see prices being so much cheaper in a year that it will matter - maybe 5-10% - and they could go up by just as much, or more. Plus, you will have Use of the shop sooner.

 

[Rich M]

You going with a steel building? Can probably get a decent deal on the building itself, the concrete and utilities may be diff.

I'd get the project started and believe that it might not be done until 2023.

 

[woods89]

Steel is currently high ( and apparently there are some availability concerns), lumber is high, etc.
That said, as far behind as we are on housing, I doubt you will get a better deal in 2023. I could very easily be wrong, though.

 

[Sridge outdoors]

I don’t think prices are going to drop on builds. If raw drops, transpo goes up. If I can afford it I’m doing it. I know what’s what now. Stuff changes for the cheap, oh well. It goes up, oh well. But in both I have my shop

 

[98XJRC]

Lumber is beginning to drop again. Futures dropped from just over 1k March to mid 6's now. What that means for you is by the time you get your permits and get moving on the build the lumber itself will become more affordable. Steel is an entire other game though. I don't necessarily see the steel prices dropping much here in the short future. There is not a single piece of material that you will be placing in your shop that will not cost more than it did 3 years ago.

We are seeing cost increases in concrete as well. The fuel increases are hurting the quarries not to mention having to pay the drivers and quarry employees more just to get people to show up to work. It's been a real struggle and makes things additionally challenging when trying to keep a schedule with weather mixed in. I can't count the number of issues I've had with concrete on the job I'm currently running. Miss a pour date, back of the line and waiting another 1-2 weeks to get on the schedule again.

We are gearing up to place an addition on our home. My estimate is proving to be significantly off on cost, however I'll be able to get the shell up and exterior finished then pick away at the interior myself. My best advice is that if you are comfortable with the current prices then make your move. Availability and pricing at this point is anyone's guess.

My father in law built a 36x60 pole barn last year. He was able to save some costs by providing a significant down payment and purchasing the metal months prior to starting the build. That may be something to consider with the contractor your using as it will lock in your material price as steel has only continued to climb.

 

[Wrench]

Living through 08.... I'd wait. I bought my 48×60 for $12,000 cash when the market was more like 3x that. Timing and cash are valuable assets. If you find the guy that financed his building and then lost a job and can't pay the rest off....you could save even more.

 

[Clarkdale17]

Steel prices are insane right now and the lead times we are seeing for steel fabrication on commercial buildings are extremely long. Lumber prices are fairly high but are starting to come down. In reality pretty much all building materials are high right now.

If shit hits the fan soon like we all think it will prices and demand should be dropping significantly. The question is if you think that will happen in the next 12 months or not. I'd be waiting it out for times to get tough and contractors are looking for jobs rather than a surplus but that's just my opinion.

 

[Sridge outdoors]

Living through 08.... I'd wait. I bought my 48×60 for $12,000 cash when the market was more like 3x that. Timing and cash are valuable assets. If you find the guy that financed his building and then lost a job and can't pay the rest off....you could save even more.

I’m trying to remember, but how did 08’ end? I know changes in Washington, and different acts and a bunch of stuff I’m too dumb to understand but; did the prices dramatically fall or was. Sublte drop with an increase in incomes?

 

[Wrench]

You had people with HUGE debt because credit was given like air and a massive recession. The housing market all but stopped and cash buyers were about the only ones buying. People who could unload anything with a payment did, but at greatly reduced prices.

 

[87TT]

I built a 40x40 shop last year and hit some stuff right and some not so right. It is hard to time it because if something gets held up in the chain, other stuff can go up or down by the time you can proceed. Add the fact that if you get it sooner, there is more time to use/enjoy it in your life.

 

[displacedtexan]

Are you doing wood or steel framing?

Plumbing or just electric?

 

[grfox92]

I need some help from you Rockslide experts!

I’m building a new 40’ x 60‘ shop either this fall or next year in 2023. Wanted to throw this out to some contractors or knowledgeable folks that have an idea what material costs may do in the next 12 months. Build now or wait?

Not borrowing $$$ so interest rate changes are irrelevant.

Thank you for your input!

I've been waiting to build my house for 2 years until I see a realistic flatline of lumber prices. I'm building in cash also and I'll be damned if I'm going to spend double or triple on my materials now if they are going to go back down.

7/16 OSB was up to $56 a sheet last month. Today it's $32. Last year it was up to $86 one day........in 2019 it was $11.97

It will never get back down to $12 a sheet, but it's not worth $32 and it's definetly not worth $56. The reason I'm focused on this one product is it seems to have dictated the prices fluctuation in all other building materials.

Maybe I'm wrong and $32 is the new number. I'll wait though. I'm in a nice townhouse in town and in no rush.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[grfox92]

I've been waiting to build my house for 2 years until I see a realistic flatline of lumber prices. I'm building in cash also and I'll be damned if I'm going to spend double or triple on my materials now if they are going to go back down.

7/16 OSB was up to $56 a sheet last month. Today it's $32. Last year it was up to $86 one day........in 2019 it was $11.97

It will never get back down to $12 a sheet, but it's not worth $32 and it's definetly not worth $56. The reason I'm focused on this one product is it seems to have dictated the prices fluctuation in all other building materials.

Maybe I'm wrong and $32 is the new number. I'll wait though. I'm in a nice townhouse in town and in no rush.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

I leaned a little too much into my personal frustration with the lumber prices, so while I stand by my original post I will add; if there builds is going span over a years time, you could get your concrete and utilities in.

Go to your lumber yard, home Depot or Lowe's, or wherever your getting your materials and have them put together your lumber package. You can leave it as an open quote and not pay for it yet. When the market goes to a place your are comfortable, pay for it.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[98XJRC]

7/16 OSB was up to $56 a sheet last month. Today it's $32. Last year it was up to $86 one day........in 2019 it was $11.97

It will never get back down to $12 a sheet, but it's not worth $32 and it's definetly not worth $56. The reason I'm focused on this one product is it seems to have dictated the prices fluctuation in all other building materials.

In November of 21 7/16 was back to just under $18 per board. I'd anticipate that being closer to the new average than the fluctuation we're seeing currently. I will also add that when you see lumber prices beginning to drop is the time to start your permitting process that way when they are at the number you are comfortable with you are not risking another price spike and are ready to pull the trigger at that time.

 

[CorbLand]

If the last two years has taught me anything, its if you need it, just do it. I put off buying a house and a newer pickup waiting for a good deal or better pricing. Both of which has cost me dearly.

Nobody knows what this market is going to do. It could crash tomorrow to another great depression or it could stagnate out for 10 years and this is the way it is. In times of rampant inflation, the single worst thing that you can have is cash.

 

[Idaho_Potato]

I've been waiting to build my house for 2 years until I see a realistic flatline of lumber prices. I'm building in cash also and I'll be damned if I'm going to spend double or triple on my materials now if they are going to go back down.

7/16 OSB was up to $56 a sheet last month. Today it's $32. Last year it was up to $86 one day........in 2019 it was $11.97

It will never get back down to $12 a sheet, but it's not worth $32 and it's definetly not worth $56. The reason I'm focused on this one product is it seems to have dictated the prices fluctuation in all other building materials.

Maybe I'm wrong and $32 is the new number. I'll wait though. I'm in a nice townhouse in town and in no rush.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

Just out of curiosity, where do you look to benchmark that price? Home Depot?

 

[Kansas_Husker]

Are you doing wood or steel framing?

Plumbing or just electric?

Are you doing wood or steel framing?

Plumbing or just electric?

Steel building, wood frame, plumbing & electric both

 

[tdhanses]

No better time then the now if you can afford it. Reason I say this is historically everything increases in cost, you may get some deals here and there but overall the cost is whaat it is and if you want to use it now is the time.

I also feel lumber will stabilize much more so then it was in 2021 where it was all over the place.