Bitcoin

[BuckSmasher]

Mini crashes and the bear cycle are baked into the cake at this point. The average time from the halving to the cycle’s ATH is about 70 weeks. For the first 20-30 weeks we will have big money rolling in. This will be the time when all the news people and politicians will be screaming about the warnings and asking for regulation while they’re buying it in the evenings. Then they will change their tone and honey d!ck the average retail investor and drive up price. For 20-30 weeks we will see average Joe who already missed out on 10x gains FOMO in to not miss the next 10x. I’ve said rather tongue-in-cheek sell when Coinbase hits #1 in App Store, well that’s when that part happens. We call those guys exit liquidity. That’s when we see the big institutional sell offs. The headlines about scams and probably something about how China outlawed something will be back. Retail guys that didn’t practice risk management and did zero research who lost their ass go back to the office warning their coworkers. Finally they all give up and get out. That gives us the final push down. If we’re lucky, everything has pulled back 60-80% at this point. This thread gets resurrected with the “I told you so” crowd. Those of us that have already took the ride for 2-3 cycles buy. And this thread gets resurrected in 2028 by someone asking if they should buy.

Or it goes to $0 manage risk accordingly
It doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes

Hmmm this is interesting!

 

[RockAndSage]

Crypto/tokens are the future. Question is will BTC dominate or dollar par prevail?

If the institutions lose confidence in BTC, they will pump it to sell to retail buyers. Once the retail investors begin to lose confidence, it’s game over because the retail investors are always the last to know.

And I think the BTC vibe has shifted. 6 months ago, the story was how high will it go now the common discussion is how low can it go….where is support?

Not that anybody really cares what I think, but I think BTC now is a game for the professionals. Simply too dangerous for the little guys.

The extreme volatility of BTC between the peaks and troughs of bull and bear markets is part of what is so interesting to me about it, causing exactly what you describe between how high/how low discussions. It's kinda unique that way. But everything else in the crypto market still generally seems to be pegged to it emotionally and psychologically. It'll be extremely interesting to see which utility token starts to significantly decouple from it.

 

[dieselchessy]

Ill admit I don't understand Bitcoin at all.
Institutional and government acceptance would seem to go counter to bitcoins lure of a non-government controlled currency.
A digital currency would seem to be primed for complete government control and tracking. Every transaction requires data system involvement.

 

[Dos Perros]

20yrs at a very minimum

What is your assessment that in 20 years time we 1) still don’t know the founder of Bitcoin and 2) supercomputers haven’t broken the encryption?

 

[Pezboat]

What is your assessment that in 20 years time we 1) still don’t know the founder of Bitcoin and 2) supercomputers haven’t broken the encryption?

I wouldn’t worry about #2. If a super computer can break the encryption of bitcoin, it can hack your personal bank accounts, retirement, brokerage, etc.

 

[2531usmc]

I think the bigger concern would be a supercomputer developing a superior encryption methodology that renders BTC obsolete.

 

[Dos Perros]

I wouldn’t worry about #2. If a super computer can break the encryption of bitcoin, it can hack your personal bank accounts, retirement, brokerage, etc.

Sure, but don't you think the impacts would be different if both happened?

Big players in the investment world limit exposure to this asset class for this precise reason...are you saying you know more than them?

 

[Silver Wings]

Sure, but don't you think the impacts would be different if both happened?

Big players in the investment world limit exposure to this asset class for this precise reason...are you saying you know more than them?

Big players limit their exposure to EVERY asset class, because diversification/risk management. Same as everyone, everywhere.
I do know more than them about my tolerance for risk, my goals, ect…
Isn’t that what it boils down to for every individual investor?

 

[Beendare]

Now you guys have me hooked on watching Bitcoin.....

This was a bit shocking to me....one outfit doing 99% of the buying. I don't see how that can be construed as good.

Strategy stands alone as it comprises 99% of all Bitcoin treasury buying these days​

HERE

 

[Dos Perros]

Big players limit their exposure to EVERY asset class, because diversification/risk management. Same as everyone, everywhere.
I do know more than them about my tolerance for risk, my goals, ect…
Isn’t that what it boils down to for every individual investor?

I think so, except people are generally stupid. And people almost certainly think they are smarter than they actually are.

I think the point I didn't quite make was...use your funny money on this stuff. Plenty of middle term upside to do that and probably a level up from degenerate sports gambling. Absolutely do not use any money you'll need to eat in the future.

 

[Silver Wings]

I think so, except people are generally stupid. And people almost certainly think they are smarter than they actually are.

I think the point I didn't quite make was...use your funny money on this stuff. Plenty of middle term upside to do that and probably a level up from degenerate sports gambling. Absolutely do not use any money you'll need to eat in the future.

The first couple sentences are universal truths.
The rest is one man’s assessment…which may turn out to be prophetic, who knows?
As far as the big players, the experts…99% of whom were blindsided by what happened in 2008…thanks, but I’ll just do my best to weed through the information available to me as best I can and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Historybuff]

Everybody is an expert when bitcoin is dipping and acting like a bear market lol

 

[BuckSmasher]

Everybody is an expert when bitcoin is dipping and acting like a bear market lol

Well, everyone is an expert when it is up 5% everyday also. That is why it so interesting about it. Bitcoin is almost a rorschach test.

If it dips below 30 I'm gonna dip my toe in. Don't want to miss the run to a million!

 

[fmyth]

Now you guys have me hooked on watching Bitcoin.....

This was a bit shocking to me....one outfit doing 99% of the buying. I don't see how that can be construed as good.

Strategy stands alone as it comprises 99% of all Bitcoin treasury buying these days​

HERE

Strategy's purchases are not 99% of BTC trade volume. If you are comparing publicly traded BTC treasury companies then yes Strategy's weekly BTC purchases may have been 99% of the total purchased by the group. For almost 5 years they were the ONLY BTC treasury company which means their purchases made up 100% of BTC treasury company purchases.

https://bitcointreasuries.net/

 

[Beendare]

Interesting link fmyth...from one of the articles;

Strategy held 672,497 BTC at an average cost of approximately $75,000 per coin as of December 31, 2025. The firm now holds 717,131 BTC, after purchasing 2,486 BTC in recent days, according to executive chairman Michael Saylor. The firm's current average purchase price is roughly $76,027 per coin.

If I owned Bitcoin I would be watching them like a hawk. I wonder what the price would have to drop to for them to be insolvent? As far as I can see- their assets are all Bitcoin. There is nothing backing it...but more Bitcoin. So if the price comes down I suppose it's not like the Bond market where they have to sell assets..or those assets are backed by something they have to liquidate.

I suppose as long as they haven't borrowed against it or leveraged it the whole thing won't come tumbling down- it's just worth less.

 

[fmyth]

Interesting link fmyth...from one of the articles;

Strategy held 672,497 BTC at an average cost of approximately $75,000 per coin as of December 31, 2025. The firm now holds 717,131 BTC, after purchasing 2,486 BTC in recent days, according to executive chairman Michael Saylor. The firm's current average purchase price is roughly $76,027 per coin.

If I owned Bitcoin I would be watching them like a hawk. I wonder what the price would have to drop to for them to be insolvent? As far as I can see- their assets are all Bitcoin. There is nothing backing it...but more Bitcoin. So if the price comes down I suppose it's not like the Bond market where they have to sell assets..or those assets are backed by something they have to liquidate.

I suppose as long as they haven't borrowed against it or leveraged it the whole thing won't come tumbling down- it's just worth less.

The price of BTC would have to drop below 8k before MSTR would be in trouble. They have 2.5B in cash reserves, enough to cover 3 years of interest and dividends on their convertible debt and preferred stock.