Bitcoin

[Silver Wings]

I’m not trying to kick anybody when they’re down, because I’ve been there, but if the current BTC volatility and resulting price drop was a surprise to you then you really need to reconsider who you’re listening to. The TA guys have had this more or less pegged for months. I have come to totally disregard anything Saylor or Pompliano or Natalie Brunelle has to say. It’s always rainbows and unicorns with them. That said, if the plan is to buy and hold then I don’t think you can go wrong…in the long run. If you’re trading they’re going to get you reckt, unless you just luck out on the timing.

 

[Kornet]

In 2010/2011 I decided to drop $500 on some, I think at the time it was around $8-10 a coin.
Took it and put it into a secure cold wallet and on a drive that I then locked up in a separate safe and forgot about it.
I’ve watched it go up and down during the time and a friend that also bought some when I did will call me up all the time telling me what the market is doing and he stresses out about it and all I do is laugh as it’s out of my control and if it crashes oh well, ive lost $500 on dumber things.
The only time ive opened my wallet is to sell a fraction in 2023 to buy the wife a new vehicle otherwise it stays off any market or anything where it could be stolen.
Right now according to my note there are 55.25555xxx coins in my wallet.
I figure if the price goes up to an amount I’m happy with I’ll sell a few complete coins and go hunt Africa for a month or send the wife and kid on a round the world trip.

The best thing to do is to buy them at a good price and “forget” about them and do not keep them in a market no matter how secure they say they are.

 

[WoodDuck]

Cherry picking time frames to compare performance is misleading. Why choose a 5 year time frame? Bitcoin is up ~700% in 6 years. The fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin converts energy into a store of value. Individuals can send (and carry) that value anywhere they please without approval of a third party. I’m not a chart wizard (though I envy those that are) and have no idea where price will be a year from now. The purchasing value of your dollar is decreasing every day, so invest where you have confidence and live your life.

 

[TX_Diver]

Over the last few days there have been some wild posts on Facebook…

Ranging from it’s going up up up
To
Trump crashed bitcoin so the White House could buy more.
to
Epstein was Satoshi and its going to zero…



Best I can come up with is its probably time to log off Facebook for another year or so.

 

[2531usmc]

Cherry picking time frames to compare performance is misleading. Why choose a 5 year time frame? Bitcoin is up ~700% in 6 years. The fundamentals have not changed. Bitcoin converts energy into a store of value. Individuals can send (and carry) that value anywhere they please without approval of a third party. I’m not a chart wizard (though I envy those that are) and have no idea where price will be a year from now. The purchasing value of your dollar is decreasing every day, so invest where you have confidence and live your life.

I think the latest price action pretty much dispels the notion that BTC is a store of value.

 

[fmyth]

I think the latest price action pretty much dispels the notion that BTC is a store of value.

I bought three 1 oz gold Amercian Eagles for $5,515 total on 10/05/12. If I sold them today they are worth 15k but I'd only net 13.5-14k.
Gold = 7.4% CAGR

If I had bought the same $5,515 of BTC on the same day in 2012 I could sell it today $32,170,833.
If I had invested that same $5,515 in the leading S&P 500 index fund I could sell it for $26,310.
BTC = 60% CAGR
S&P 500 = 13% CAGR

I purchased a beautiful home in a retirement community in the far E Valley of Phoenix that same year 2012 for $217,000 on the courthouse steps. Today I could sell that home for $550,000 less fees.
Real Estate = 7.2% CAGR

I'd say that BTC is superior long term store of value. The BTC can be sold within 30 min online. Selling the gold requires me to make an apt and drive 45 miles to a buyer or ship it via Fedex to JM Bullion and waiting up to 90 days for my money. Selling the home would take 90-120 days if I'm lucky.

 

[bozeman]

@fmyth you see what I see. I am amazed at how many bring up silver and gold vs BTC.....I cant find a way that they are superior to BTC....buy and HOLD BTC just like one would silver and gold. The math is the math.....I guess some would rather have the 13-14k instead of 32k......

 

[Silver Wings]

@fmyth you see what I see. I am amazed at how many bring up silver and gold vs BTC.....I cant find a way that they are superior to BTC....buy and HOLD BTC just like one would silver and gold. The math is the math.....I guess some would rather have the 13-14k instead of 32k......

It’s odd they never put up any long term charts to bolster their argument.

 

[fmyth]

@fmyth you see what I see. I am amazed at how many bring up silver and gold vs BTC.....I cant find a way that they are superior to BTC....buy and HOLD BTC just like one would silver and gold. The math is the math.....I guess some would rather have the 13-14k instead of 32k......

13-14k vs. 32 Million. Sadly I didn't buy any BTC until a few years after I purchased the gold and real estate.

 

[Beendare]

IF you would have bought MSFT on the IPO,

IF we would have bought anything with the benefit of hindsight….we would all be rich.
Playing the “ what if” game is a loser that messes with your head. The same goes for not having an Entry and Exit strategy. I am the poster boy for learning that the hard way.

Funny how people compare Bitcoin to other investments like gold and houses that have underlying fundamentals value- Bitcoin doesn’t. Zero, Nada. So no comparison.

Plenty of good info on how comparing Bitcoin to precious metal = no correlation.

The question is always; What to do now? At this price….with the knowledge we have NOW.

I don’t know what Bitcoin will do as there is no underlying fundamentals….and as I see it, thats the problem. So its at the whim of crooks, scammers, the greater fool theory and manipulators at every turn. The only thing left is technical analysis….or wishful thinking.

Maybe it will go way up due to all of those influences but if not it will end up being a costly game of musical chairs.

 

[2531usmc]

IF you would have bought MSFT on the IPO,

IF we would have bought anything with the benefit of hindsight….we would all be rich.
Playing the “ what if” game is a loser that messes with your head. The same goes for not having an Entry and Exit strategy. I am the poster boy for learning that the hard way.

Funny how people compare Bitcoin to other investments like gold and houses that have underlying fundamentals value- Bitcoin doesn’t. Zero, Nada. So no comparison.

Plenty of good info on how comparing Bitcoin to precious metal = no correlation.

The question is always; What to do now? At this price….with the knowledge we have NOW.

I don’t know what Bitcoin will do as there is no underlying fundamentals….and as I see it, thats the problem. So its at the whim of crooks, scammers, the greater fool theory and manipulators at every turn. The only thing left is technical analysis….or wishful thinking.

Maybe it will go way up due to all of those influences but if not it will end up being a costly game of musical chairs.

And I think this is the primary concern with BTC….it will end up being a costly game of musical chains.

And in the game of musical chairs, the big investment banks are playing the music and filling the chairs with their insiders. So when the music stops, the insiders are taken care of and the individual investors (us) are left standing.

It’s an insiders game….

 

[Beendare]

And I think this is the primary concern with BTC….it will end up being a costly game of musical chains.

And in the game of musical chairs, the big investment banks are playing the music and filling the chairs with their insiders. So when the music stops, the insiders are taken care of and the individual investors (us) are left standing.

It’s an insiders game….

It's evolved a lot in the last 5 years, a complex game now and the big boys are very good at playing it.

Thats why I think 5 year old comparisons should be thrown out the window.

Many of these big outfits don't care what direction it goes, as long as it moves. They are constantly trading it in either direction. They do the same with stocks and metals but there is an underlying fundamental value with those that keeps the manipulations from breeching certain levels.

Direction? The smaller coins that are first to move are all getting hammered. The derivative market is betting on a downward move. The signs are pointing down. Now that doesn't mean a big manipulator cannot come in and buy forcing the shorts to cover creating big upside. Thats what Bitcoin has evolved to....even if it didn't start that way.

I think we can all agree on one thing, it's not the buy and hold guys building positions that are influencing the price anymore- it's the big outfits. Guaranteed they have their finger on the trigger to take advantage of a move in any direction.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

And I think this is the primary concern with BTC….it will end up being a costly game of musical chains.

And in the game of musical chairs, the big investment banks are playing the music and filling the chairs with their insiders. So when the music stops, the insiders are taken care of and the individual investors (us) are left standing.

It’s an insiders game….

I was feeling like the musical chairs game already happened with the bitcoin etf’s.

The ETF’s, things like MSTY and MSTR allowed a huge flood of people with the fear of missing out to more easily buy into bitcoin. It doesn’t appear that this has gone well for lots of them. I would imagine it will be hard to get an enormous group of new buyers again like was created when the ETF’s and stocks based off bitcoin were created.

Lots of folks got scalped, I wonder who’s holding all the scalps!

 

[Newk]

Over the last few days there have been some wild posts on Facebook…

Ranging from it’s going up up up
To
Trump crashed bitcoin so the White House could buy more.
to
Epstein was Satoshi and its going to zero…



Best I can come up with is its probably time to log off Facebook for another year or so.

yep. mainstream social media is the devil! algorithmic scrolling serves to reaffirm our greatest fears (the strongest human emotion). tricks us into believing life a burden... as if being alive is anything other than the greatest gift!

 

[fmyth]

I was feeling like the musical chairs game already happened with the bitcoin etf’s.

The ETF’s, things like MSTY and MSTR allowed a huge flood of people with the fear of missing out to more easily buy into bitcoin. It doesn’t appear that this has gone well for lots of them. I would imagine it will be hard to get an enormous group of new buyers again like was created when the ETF’s and stocks based off bitcoin were created.

Lots of folks got scalped, I wonder who’s holding all the scalps!

IBIT Blackrocks ETF went live in Jan of 24 and is up 41.7%.
FBTC Fidelitys ETF went live in July of 24 and is up 44.87%.
MSTR started buying BTC in 2020 and is up 667%.
MSTY went live Feb of 24 and is up 56.2%.

Who got scalped?

Long term investors are still winning in all of these "BTC" ETFs/Stocks.

Short term investors who sell on dips got wrecked but that's the same with any stock/ETF. If you choose to sell during a dip you get what you get.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

IBIT Blackrocks ETF went live in Jan of 24 and is up 41.7%.
FBTC Fidelitys ETF went live in July of 24 and is up 44.87%.
MSTR started buying BTC in 2020 and is up 667%.
MSTY went live Feb of 24 and is up 56.2%.

Who got scalped?

Long term investors are still winning in all of these "BTC" ETFs/Stocks.

Short term investors who sell on dips got wrecked but that's the same with any stock/ETF. If you choose to sell during a dip you get what you get.

Didn’t bitcoin price go way up as and after these were “created” or “went live” and has since crashed?

It seems like what happened?

It looked to me like a whole new group of bitcoin investors jumped in the game, and have since had second thoughts.

I would imagine some won big, and some lost big.

There is obviously way less people lining up to buy bitcoin now or the price wouldn’t be so low.

 

[fmyth]

Didn’t bitcoin price go way up as and after these were “created” or “went live” and has since crashed?

It seems like what happened?

It looked to me like a whole new group of bitcoin investors jumped in the game, and have since had second thoughts.

I would imagine some won big, and some lost big.

There is obviously way less people lining up to buy bitcoin now or the price wouldn’t be so low.

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MSTY is a high yield dividend fund that is designed to have NAV erosion over time. The MSTY chart you posted does not show the dividends paid out since inception. When you include the dividends in the total return since inception you get + 56% total return for the 2 years the ETF has been traded.

 

[fmyth]

And I think this is the primary concern with BTC….it will end up being a costly game of musical chains.

And in the game of musical chairs, the big investment banks are playing the music and filling the chairs with their insiders. So when the music stops, the insiders are taken care of and the individual investors (us) are left standing.

It’s an insiders game….

 

[fmyth]

Here's the US single family home sales price chart for the last 10 years. Look at all those price dips. There is NO investment that only goes up. Every investment has the potential for loss. Timing is everything. As a real estate broker I lived through the 2007 housing crash and met many homeowners and investors that got wrecked because they bought between 2003-2007 and had to sell between 2008-2014. I had the displeasure of facilitating more evictions than I care to remember.

 

[MountainTracker]

Just fun info, if you bought when this thread started you wouldn’t be in the negative you’d be at the same place we are today. Just how btc has operated since the beginning.

Being informed and buying at the correct price applies to all investments.


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