Are we headed for another 2008?

[MattB]

Not in shambles currently but steaming straight for a cliff IMO. In my business, our suppliers typically have an annual price increase that is 2-4%. For a year now we have experienced price increases between 5-8% each quarter. We are receiving new price increase notifications daily. The government figure for inflation is way low based on what I am seeing personally. In my 30 years in business, I have never seen anything close to this. Industrial supply business.

Couple inflation with huge supply chain issues, skyrocketing fuel costs, rising interest rates, etc and I do not see how it is possible we are not staring straight into the eyes of a major recession. Obviously, 2008 was the result of a completely different scenario but I think the results are going to look a lot alike.

Supply chain issues and rising fuel costs are the primary factors that are driving inflation, they are not independent.

 

[zion zig zag]

Look at the bright side, if we have another 2008 type event, a lot of really rich people will get much richer at the expense of the taxpayer.

 

[Gutshot007]

Diesel $5.50 gallon(here), inflation double digits, baby formula shortage,ag fertilizer up 300%, computer chip shortage for auto industry , housing prices exploded. Got an email at work today. Contrast dye for CT SCANs and radiology procedures cardiac angiography etc. Down by 80% ! Comes from China for G.E. The supply chain issue is huge. So ya things are going well . Get up everyday and go to work and use your head in your personal finances. Keep plugging along!

 

[flatlanderhuffandpuff]

I have worked hard to minimize the effects a down turn will have on my family and business as I see it as almost an inevitability. I think most people who try to tell you they know what will happen are full of it but it doesn't seem sustainable at all.

Low unemployment but wages aren't keeping up with inflation for the people who will be hardest hit.

Supply chain issues are real and we will continue feeling the pain until we decide to produce in this country again.

 

[Dos Perros]

"Unfortunately, inflation-adjusted wages are falling faster than they have in 40 years."

But the economy is cooookin'.

 

[TFP]

These houses aren't being bought with stated income signature loans, many are being bought with cash in our area. That's a sign of a strong economy most places, Interest rates were kept artificially low for so long they had to correct.

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Or it's people cashing out of inflated economic bubbles and taking all of that inflated value across the country, destabilizing local economies everywhere. The people in most of America didn't magically decide they could afford a $100,000 over asking this year but were unable or prudent enough not to in 2019.

 

[kayvon]

Not at all. Stagflation is primarily a function of 3 things: persistent high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant demand. We have record low unemployment and strong consumer demand, so right off the bat our economy lacks 2 of the 3 criteria.

The inflation we are seeing is a function of supply chain disruption due to COVID and global political turmoil coupled with strong domestic consumer spending - not a more structural issue from an economic perspective. Time will tell how persistent it will be, but given the drivers I do not think it will be a long-term issue.

Except we clearly have persistent high inflation as well as "high unemployment" (I am speaking of labor force participation). The unemployment rate is a measure of how many people are on unemployment benefits which expire weather or not you've found a job. Labor force participation is the better measurement, and it's not recovered since covid and it looks like it never will. Demand will stagnate because nobody has anymore money. Household have massively increased credit card usage since the start of the year. These bills will be harder to pay off because of the rising interest rates.

THE ECONOMY LITERALLY CONTRACTED LAST QUARTER! Let's not ignore the fact that the snakes at the NYT are trying to spin economic contraction as a "recovery". We're halfway into recession already. There's a lot more to cover but the fact is that the downturn will be far worse than most think

 

[Gutshot007]

The great thing about inflation is that we'll all be millionaires ! Bad thing a loaf of bread will be $10,0000

 

[Gutshot007]

Oops one extra zero

 

[redcorn65]

Farming is super fun this year. Drought and sky high inputs. Not to mention supply chain issues and this administration pulling chemicals we normally use off label. Fun times. Especially for a young beginning farmer.


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[amassi]

Or it's people cashing out of inflated economic bubbles and taking all of that inflated value across the country, destabilizing local economies everywhere. The people in most of America didn't magically decide they could afford a $100,000 over asking this year but were unable or prudent enough not to in 2019.

No you dont/can't destabilize an economy by taking money there. You destabilize an economy by removing money

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[kayvon]

Farming is super fun this year. Drought and sky high inputs. Not to mention supply chain issues and this administration pulling chemicals we normally use off label. Fun times. Especially for a young beginning farmer.


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Low key one of the main reasons I got into hunting this year is the real possibility of food insecurity

 

[thinhorn_AK]

Are we headed for another 2008?

No, this is going to be different. The great ‘reset’ that was designed to crash our entire system so that the globalists could move in to save us all with their NWO will not turn out the way they planned. Someone has thrown the proverbial monkey wrench into the globalist’s plans and now the whole world is seeing for themselves the depths of corruption that the evil cabal had stooped to.
We’ll be back to a stable gold standard monetary system and many corrupt officials will be in Gitmo.
Well, that’s what I heard anyway.

Did you hear/read that on the 24 hour campfire???

 

[HNTR918]

God I hope the housing market crashes!!! I might finally by able to afford a home in Colorado.

 

[redcorn65]

Low key one of the main reasons I got into hunting this year is the real possibility of food insecurity

Stock up… I lost track how many meat packing plants have spontaneously combusted this year mysteriously. My grandpa told me that someday you’d have to carry a gun to protect what you got. I always thought he was paranoid but if people get hungry enough we will be out standing guard on our cattle.


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[FLATHEAD]

I have made my best investments after housing crashes.
Recently paid off my house which has, in 3 years nearly doubled
in value.
Now putting that house payment in savings and will be ready
to pounce when the next crash happens.
Bring it.

 

[Dirtbag]

Low key one of the main reasons I got into hunting this year is the real possibility of food insecurity

If it comes down to actually needing to subsist on game our wildlife populations wont last but a few months.

 

[Gman12]

Farming is super fun this year. Drought and sky high inputs. Not to mention supply chain issues and this administration pulling chemicals we normally use off label. Fun times. Especially for a young beginning farmer.


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I feel for my farming buddies. Fertilizer, seed and roundup costs have doubled and tripled. Diesel prices higher now than any time in history. Hard to get tractor repair parts and on and on. They are going to need $10 corn and $20 soybeans to make any money. It sucks all the way around for farmers as they are being hit from every direction at once.

 

[redcorn65]

I feel for my farming buddies. Fertilizer, seed and roundup costs have doubled and tripled. Diesel prices higher now than any time in history. Hard to get tractor repair parts and on and on. They are going to need $10 corn and $20 soybeans to make any money. It sucks all the way around for farmers as they are being hit from every direction at once.

Ya we buy at retail and sell at wholesale. Roundup was 60$ a gallon this year. 10 dollar corn won’t mean much if Mother Nature doesn’t give us moisture and we can’t spray the bugs. Aphids have about ate 700 acres of my alfalfa.


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[bozeman]

Get out of debt, stay out of debt.......then invest consistently over time......IMO the best way to handle an economic downturn.....