AK Sheep, Population Observations

[wantj43]

There is excellent

Though some of these data-sets certainly present some challenges, for the most part they provide good insight to the general chacteristics of the sheep harvest.
There are several data-sets from the early 50’s and late 60’s, collected by agency personnel, that in general mirror the harvest data submitted by successful sheep hunters.

 

[cbeard64]

I know this is heresy to AK residents who consider it a God-given right to hunt sheep every year, but it’s past time for all AK sheep tags to be put under a quota/draw system. These numbers don’t lie and they are speaking clearly that everything that can be done needs to be done.

 

[Htm84]

I know this is heresy to AK residents who consider it a God-given right to hunt sheep every year, but it’s past time for all AK sheep tags to be put under a quota/draw system. These numbers don’t lie and they are speaking clearly that everything that can be done needs to be done.

Considering NR success rates are far higher than residents. It would be far more effective to limit NR.

 

[ozyclint]

Non residents have to be guided? hunting guided might be more conducive to success?

outsider looking in.....

 

[cbeard64]

Quota means for everyone. R, NR, subsistence.
Predator control. Big penalties for non-legal rams. Habitat restoration. Trap and transplant. Whatever else the experts think will help.

Y’all got a problem and it isn’t going to solve itself.

 

[IBen]

Considering NR success rates are far higher than residents. It would be far more effective to limit NR.

Resident success rate would be just as high if the tag cost was 850.00.

 

[Atigun]

Quota means for everyone. R, NR, subsistence.
Predator control. Big penalties for non-legal rams. Habitat restoration. Trap and transplant. Whatever else the experts think will help.

Y’all got a problem and it isn’t going to solve itself.

Non of which help heavy winters or late springs, which is the reasoning behind the current population crash. The number of sub-legal rams taken is minimal compared to the amount of 6 & 7 year old full curls legally shot, which is an issue. Predator control would be great, but leading sheep biologists for ADFG openly say the return on investment is not great enough. With that said I will be spending my winter hunting wolves and running my trap line to help keep sheep on the mountain where I can.

Trust me resident sheep hunters and biologists are concerned and are actively seeking what solutions can be implemented, but it is not an issue of overly hunting the resource, it is weather related.

 

[AkMtnRunner]

Non residents have to be guided? hunting guided might be more conducive to success?

outsider looking in.....

Totally. Many resident sheep hunters aren't nearly invested in the hunt, nor do most have the skills of a guide. Perhaps guides shouldn't be allowed for NRs?

 

[Yellowknife]

I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:






2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.

 

[ColeyG]

I spent a lot of time in 19C from 2010 through 2016. I was absent for a handful of years and returned in 2021 and was shocked at the lack of sheep. Based on the week we spent stomping around in the area, I estimated the population was about 35-40% of what what I had come to understand as normal for the area. Seems like the data supports that poor mans survey pretty much exactly. Very sad to see.

 

[cbeard64]

Man I hate to see that.

 

[MBN]

I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:

View attachment 662682


View attachment 662684

2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.

I totally understand and have seen with my own eyes that the sheep population took a huge drop statewide from 2 consecutive bad winter/springs. Using harvest data seems strange to use as a aid for population numbers. Cutting hunter numbers(non res) obviously would cut down the harvest numbers as does hunter participation has dropped with lower sheep numbers. Statewide harvest numbers have steeply declined with hunter success percentages not dropping substantially in many areas. Less hunters makes for lower harvest, With are current management strategy the sheep where doing very well even with a bad winter in 2013 until the 2 consecutive bad winters. Nothing will replace those sheep/rams but time.

 

[Yellowknife]

Non-Resident hunters were active in 19C through 2022, time covered in the chart. Success rates also dropped measurable during those last three years for both NR and Res. It’s a fairly valid proxy for herd health in my mind.

 

[MBN]

Non-Resident hunters were active in 19C through 2022, time covered in the chart. Success rates also dropped measurable during those last three years for both NR and Res. It’s a fairly valid proxy for herd health in my mind.

I understand that they were on the chart, I also understand the population decreased a lot. I am not just referencing 19C. Just pointing out harvest data without hunter participation numbers can be misleading.

 

[ColeyG]

I understand that they were on the chart, I also understand the population decreased a lot. I am not just referencing 19C. Just pointing out harvest data without hunter participation numbers can be misleading.

You've touched on one of the great conundrums in sheep management here in AK. There is no perfect, or even close to ideal metric for gauging the state of any given sheep population or population as a whole. No one data set, or even group of data really paints the complete picture. 19C has been one of the most consistently surveyed sheep populations in the state and that is one of the main reasons it is getting so much attention these days. It is the easiest to "analyze" as compared to other units that may have never been surveyed.

Surveys take place infrequently at best and when they do happen, are often effected by weather and conditions to the point where the data collected by them is helpful, but far from an accurate inventory.

Harvest data is very valuable, but total number of sheep killed needs to be correlated to hunter participation and effort.

Success rates are usually affected by a number of other factors other than presence of legal rams, again weather being a very significant one.

Boot leather/poor mans surveys from experience hunters, guides, etc. can and should carry a lot of weight, but those observations don't make it into any sort of official record or analysis.

Those that are trying to track what is actually going on with sheep in AK need to ingest all of these data and factors and weigh them against time and experience to get the most accurate picture available, and that is no easy task.

Those that have been trying generally come to the same conclusion. AK sheep are in bad shape and it will probably get worse before (if?) it gets better.

 

[MBN]

You've touched on one of the great conundrums in sheep management here in AK. There is no perfect, or even close to ideal metric for gauging the state of any given sheep population or population as a whole. No one data set, or even group of data really paints the complete picture. 19C has been one of the most consistently surveyed sheep populations in the state and that is one of the main reasons it is getting so much attention these days. It is the easiest to "analyze" as compared to other units that may have never been surveyed.

Surveys take place infrequently at best and when they do happen, are often effected by weather and conditions to the point where the data collected by them is helpful, but far from an accurate inventory.

Harvest data is very valuable, but total number of sheep killed needs to be correlated to hunter participation and effort.

Success rates are usually affected by a number of other factors other than presence of legal rams, again weather being a very significant one.

Boot leather/poor mans surveys from experience hunters, guides, etc. can and should carry a lot of weight, but those observations don't make it into any sort of official record or analysis.

Those that are trying to track what is actually going on with sheep in AK need to ingest all of these data and factors and weigh them against time and experience to get the most accurate picture available, and that is no easy task.

Those that have been trying generally come to the same conclusion. AK sheep are in bad shape and it will probably get worse before (if?) it gets better.

I understand and agree with most of this. Maybe I am an optimist but the sheep have rebounded after weather events before and think that with time they will again.

 

[mtwarden]

Is it possible to view historically low populations and see how quickly (or slowly) they bounce back?

I know weather isn’t the only influence on populations, but has to be a large factor. I’m sure there have been previous back to back (or more) bad winters. Curious how long it takes to bounce back with improved weather.

 

[TWHrunner]

View attachment 624422
From the 2022 ADFG/BOG presentation

I find it to be an awfully strange coincidence that sheep harvest is trucking along just fine and then precipitously drops off in 2020 which is, of course, the year Covid hit and travel became restricted plus peoples wallets took a hit so plans to hunt sheep that fall changed in a dramatic way. But then, harvest doesn’t come back even though everyone becomes a hunter and sheep hunts become the most important thing to do in the World. What’s up with that other than aliens landed and stole the sheep when people took a year off from sheep hunting.

 

[TWHrunner]

I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:

View attachment 662682


View attachment 662684

2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.

Same thing for 19C. Everything is fine in 2019 and then harvest drops in 2020 but doesn’t come back. The drop in 2020 is explainable. 2021 and 2022 is not. Did the sheep get Covid?

 

[TWHrunner]

Is there a graph that shows R and NR sheep tags sold like the harvest data graph?