Age class vs tag availability, what does it take now?

I guess the easiest way to ask this is explain a situation. While looking at reports for units that can be drawn with 1 point, the info provided for the area often says most bucks taken are 2-4 years old. It seems like around 4.5 is where mule deer really start looking like mule deer, and maybe what some people consider the first year of maturity. So if you are looking for that decent 4x4, are these types of units likely going to be a bust? I'm concerned about the alternative which is point creep in better units. Is it still possible to shoot nice bucks with low points (potentially), or if you aren't invested in a tons of points you are screwed? Like what does it take in the current landscape to not shoot a forky?
A big flaw in tooth data is that the average hunter gets out for a weekend or two and just wants to shoot a buck. Locals are rarely too concerned with looking for even a 4.5-year-old buck or a decent 4x4. There's some great examples in Montana that were covered last year on the Rokcast where the places folks know have the best potential for old deer are some of the youngest average age class killed.

I personally like hunting those places without a lot of hardcore hunters vying for the mature bucks. Those guys are lethal and bring that top end down and make hunting difficult whereas some of my favorite hunts have been OTC for residents, 0-1 point draws, and everyone is just buzzing around on a side-by-side looking for legal bucks and not digging in and putting the work.

Give me a unit that's low points, and/or give me one I can learn from multiple years over a single chance to make the best on a tag one time.
 
A big flaw in tooth data is that the average hunter gets out for a weekend or two and just wants to shoot a buck. Locals are rarely too concerned with looking for even a 4.5-year-old buck or a decent 4x4. There's some great examples in Montana that were covered last year on the Rokcast where the places folks know have the best potential for old deer are some of the youngest average age class killed.

I personally like hunting those places without a lot of hardcore hunters vying for the mature bucks. Those guys are lethal and bring that top end down and make hunting difficult whereas some of my favorite hunts have been OTC for residents, 0-1 point draws, and everyone is just buzzing around on a side-by-side looking for legal bucks and not digging in and putting the work.

Give me a unit that's low points, and/or give me one I can learn from multiple years over a single chance to make the best on a tag one time.
Makes a lot of sense.
 
Let’s run some numbers of an average 1 or 2 point unit.
Let’s say there are 3,000 deer in that unit and the buck to doe ratio is 30:100. That’s 900 bucks in the unit. Now let’s say the mature (5.5 year old or older) deer percentage is 5% of the buck herd. That puts you at 45 bucks you’re looking for in an entire unit. Now let’s say the unit is 525 square miles. That’s one mature buck for every 11.6 square miles.

I would guess some of your numbers to be extremely generous, especially with buck to doe ratio and the % of bucks that live to 5.5


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I would guess some of your numbers to be extremely generous, especially with buck to doe ratio and the % of bucks that live to 5.5


Sent from my

I would guess some of your numbers to be extremely generous, especially with buck to doe ratio and the % of bucks that live to 5.5


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Actually my rough numbers are close as far as buck to doe ratio.
But I agree with the big buck percentage could be high but what is it? 4%, 3% or even less.

Unit A has 2800 deer and takes 1 point for an archery tag. The CPW says the buck to doe ratio is 30:100.
With a mature buck percentage of 5% there would be 42, with 4% it’s 34, and with 3% it’s 25.
Unit B takes 2 points for an archery tag. The CPW says there is 2600 deer with a buck to doe ratio of 35:100. With a mature buck percentage of 5% there would be 46, with 4% it’s 36, and with 3% it’s 27.
 
Actually my rough numbers are close as far as buck to doe ratio.
But I agree with the big buck percentage could be high but what is it? 4%, 3% or even less.

Unit A has 2800 deer and takes 1 point for an archery tag. The CPW says the buck to doe ratio is 30:100.
With a mature buck percentage of 5% there would be 42, with 4% it’s 34, and with 3% it’s 25.
Unit B takes 2 points for an archery tag. The CPW says there is 2600 deer with a buck to doe ratio of 35:100. With a mature buck percentage of 5% there would be 46, with 4% it’s 36, and with 3% it’s 27.
I like this way of looking at it. MT it’s like 9:100 B : D ratio lol, haven’t seen a 160” on public in over 2 years… tough place to be a mule deer fanatic. Literal needle in a haystack, or just hunting ghosts. Feels like the lateral most years. Not sure why people come here to hunt deer unless they just really enjoy rutting mule deer buck meat.
 
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