50% Decline in Eagle County Colorado's Elk Population Since 2007

[KsRancher]

What has me confused. Is if you look at the 2005 elk population it is 6700 and if you look at the 2016 elk population it is 6500. Those are the numbers off of the Colorado Division of Wildlife elk population That doesn't seem like that big of a reduction to me

 

[HondoArcher]

I wonder what the bear population looks like and how it’s grown since th spring bear season has gone away? Might have something to do with the calving issues.

I just finished a 5 day scouting trip and found lots of bear scat with elk hair in it. In every unit I go to it seems the bear population is on the increase. The unit I just scouted had about 25 calves per 100 cows. Not good.

 

[spike camp]

I just finished a 5 day scouting trip and found lots of bear scat with elk hair in it. In every unit I go to it seems the bear population is on the increase. The unit I just scouted had about 25 calves per 100 cows. Not good.

Elk hair in bear scat doesn’t necessarily mean it’s from calf mortality.
Winter kills, mountain lion kills and naturally deceased Elk, are all fed upon by bears.

 

[Boxerboxer]

What has me confused. Is if you look at the 2005 elk population it is 6700 and if you look at the 2016 elk population it is 6500. Those are the numbers off of the Colorado Division of Wildlife elk population That doesn't seem like that big of a reduction to me

Where are you getting those numbers?

 

[Danimal]

Elk hair in bear scat doesn’t necessarily mean it’s from calf mortality.
Winter kills, mountain lion kills and naturally deceased Elk, are all fed upon by bears.

I get where you are coming from but "Hondo" said that he "just finished" his scouting trip. Let's say that was 2 weeks ago in mid June, why would there be carcasses to feed on? Naturally deceased would be disease or famine issue, mountain lion kills at a high enough rate would be additive mortality not compensatory, and inclement weather at near this time of year being fatal is indicative of your herd not being healthy. All things that should cause alarm. In my opinion if predation from any form (bear, cat, other) is not allowing for sustainable hunter harvest then more aggressive predator control should be explored. If however population numbers are stable then we should probably allow the other (non-human) predators to get theirs too. JMO

 

[Will_m]

I heard all the elk were gone. I suggest heading east for whitetail. No game out west anymore

 

[spike camp]

I get where you are coming from but "Hondo" said that he "just finished" his scouting trip. Let's say that was 2 weeks ago in mid June, why would there be carcasses to feed on? Naturally deceased would be disease or famine issue, mountain lion kills at a high enough rate would be additive mortality not compensatory, and inclement weather at near this time of year being fatal is indicative of your herd not being healthy. All things that should cause alarm. In my opinion if predation from any form (bear, cat, other) is not allowing for sustainable hunter harvest then more aggressive predator control should be explored. If however population numbers are stable then we should probably allow the other (non-human) predators to get theirs too. JMO

Just offering different perspectives...

I live smack dab in the middle of an area with LOTS of bear and cats.
Elk winter here from November to May.
I find dozens of bear piles every year and some do have Deer or Elk hair in them....but the Elk don’t give birth here.
I just know from experience that if there is Elk hair in bear scat around here it’s definitely not from predator/calf mortality.

To answer your specific question...a bear will revisit a carcass for months, just taking a nibble at a time even though it’s pretty much been picked clean.
This could be part of the reason Elk hair is present in bear scat in summer months.
Of course, some Elk calf’s become bear food so there is definitely that possibility but seems to me that is the circle of life in nature.

It’s the pumpkin patch come October and November, slaying cow after cow after cow that I believe is the main cause to this particular Elk herds decline in numbers over the years.

 

[BadgerStateBugler]

I have archery hunted this area from 2013 until present, on a typical outting we see more bears than elk and deer. Additionally, there is a very large area that is over run with cattle. Areas that look to be good elk habitat, well off the roads are trampled and covered in cow crap. From conversations with other hunters that have hunted this area for years and years they feel the elk have been pushed out to the extreme mountain ranges once the cattle grazing increased in the basin we hunt.

We continue to hunt this area because we like it's scenery, and seem to have the immediate area pretty much to ourselves. Usually run into one or two other hunters/hunting parties per trip. There likely are better areas as far as elk population but being from the Midwest we have limited scouting abilities so we stick to what we know. We are very grateful to have the opportunity to hunt elk on public lands in an OTC Hunter friendly state such as CO.

 

[chindits]

Spike Camp, I find your conclusion questionable as if there aren't elk calves within 20 miles of where you are finding bear scat with elk hair in it as it sounds like you are near winter range. There calving areas aren't that far away from you especially on big snow years. In my area elk calving is often near the top of draws at the sage brush/aspen ecotone within sight of the lowest winter range. The exact location of where the calf is dropped is not really that important since cow/calves are mobile day one and bears are highly mobile foragers. We can blame any number of factors on the Eagle county situation, but there appears to be ample research showing bear calf predation is significant from NM to Yellowstone. I doubt CO is the exception. "Ftguides" provided a link to a NM study summary in post 30 and a short internet search will show multiple studies in the Yellowstone area. If my recollection serves me, even Bugle magazine acknowledged a Montana study indicating bears as the most significant predator of elk calves until September despite the human hunter mantra of wolves wolves wolves.

I also question CPWs usual blame of human encroachment. As previously noted with the Estes Park elk, and even hunted elk in my area will bask in open alpine all summer within site of one of the busiest OHV congested passes, til September. So I am not ready to embrace humans everywhere is changing elk populations. It might change there seasonal behavior, but those cows aren't thinking about holding off on having a calf because there are too many mountain bikers.

imo.

 

[spike camp]

Spike Camp, I find your conclusion questionable as if there aren't elk calves within 20 miles of where you are finding bear scat with elk hair in it as it sounds like you are near winter range. There calving areas aren't that far away from you especially on big snow years. In my area elk calving is often near the top of draws at the sage brush/aspen ecotone within sight of the lowest winter range. The exact location of where the calf is dropped is not really that important since cow/calves are mobile day one and bears are highly mobile foragers. We can blame any number of factors on the Eagle county situation, but there appears to be ample research showing bear calf predation is significant from NM to Yellowstone. I doubt CO is the exception. "Ftguides" provided a link to a NM study summary in post 30 and a short internet search will show multiple studies in the Yellowstone area. If my recollection serves me, even Bugle magazine acknowledged a Montana study indicating bears as the most significant predator of elk calves until September despite the human hunter mantra of wolves wolves wolves.

I also question CPWs usual blame of human encroachment. As previously noted with the Estes Park elk, and even hunted elk in my area will bask in open alpine all summer within site of one of the busiest OHV congested passes, til September. So I am not ready to embrace humans everywhere is changing elk populations. It might change there seasonal behavior, but those cows aren't thinking about holding off on having a calf because there are too many mountain bikers.

imo.

Yes, I live in a wintering zone for Elk(7000’)
The Elk summer about 20 miles to the west(10000’)
In the 15 years I’ve lived here, Ive never once seen an Elk calf.
By the time the cows give birth, they are already in the high county.
Just two years ago, I found a new born Elk calf at almost 11000’!

With regards to Yellowstone and Montana...now we’re talking Grizzlies which is an entirely different conversation.

 

[Blockcaver]

Your wrong if you think black bears are not predators of calves, whether elk or moose. Also deer fawns.

 

[sndmn11]

I think it is interesting that 6 months ago we were told that shed hunting hurts the animals but that hikers/bikers/dogs in the same area have no effect and can still play. Now this is saying the opposite.

 

[spike camp]

Your wrong if you think black bears are not predators of calves, whether elk or moose. Also deer fawns.

If directed at me, I absolutely believe bears catch and kill calfs and fawns.

But, I’m highly skeptical that this predation is a significant cause of this particular elk herds decline in numbers...with all other factors considered.

Also, my pumpkin patch comment came off as derogatory, and that was not my intent.
Once you drive through and around these areas during rifle though, you wonder how long the Elk numbers can support the ever growing hunter numbers.

 

[Danimal]

It’s the pumpkin patch come October and November, slaying cow after cow after cow that I believe is the main cause to this particular Elk herds decline in numbers over the years.

I hear you. It's disingenuous for us as hunters to say that we are in no way responsible for the decline. Even recreational hunting can be a problem but that is what our state's game systems are for. Unfortunately manipulating hunters is the easiest and least controversial management tool that an agency can use to manage wildlife. The hard issues like limiting other forms of recreational access, habitat improvements, predator control, etc. are typically under utilized based on political will and financial limitations.

As hunters we should be diligent that if there is a "real" issue that we push for game agencies to address those issues instead of fall back on harvest reductions as a answer.

 

[ckleeves]

If directed at me, I absolutely believe bears catch and kill calfs and fawns.

But, I’m highly skeptical that this predation is a significant cause of this particular elk herds decline in numbers...with all other factors considered.

Also, my pumpkin patch comment came off as derogatory, and that was not my intent.
Once you drive through and around these areas during rifle though, you wonder how long the Elk numbers can support the ever growing hunter numbers.

I disagree. I have seen the way bears can mop up calves. The overhavest is also a huge factor, I’m not by any means pointing a finger at just predation but I believe it is certainly a factor. When you see the same nursery herd throughout the summer and the calf numbers are constantly decreasing in it then something not at all hunting related is going on.

 

[chindits]

No grizz in NM. Compare the number of blacks to Grizz back when these studies were trying to explain elk herd declines up north in the early 2000s. Don’t ponder the cutthroat correlation too long in those studies rather ponder CO social mandate on no spring hunt no bait no dogs. No excuses, us hunters are the only management tool cpw can manipulate with out a law suit putting them on the ropes.

 

[Foldem]

Check out the graph in post 40. A 50% reduction from 2006 levels puts the herd at objective. List B cow tags plus bears or whatever, the herd is at objective. The newspaper article leaves that out.

 

[trophyhill]

Great read!

 

[dcreiss]

Seems like a vaguely similar issue we had in western SD not so long ago. The Black Hills deer and elk herds were losing numbers for years until it became a catastrophic issue with the elk herd. Mountain lions had moved back into the hills and our wildlife agency buried it's head in the sand about alpha predator control until entire herds were completely wiped out. Fast forward to present day where we control lion populations through science based hunting regulation and our deer herd and elk herd is recovering very well. All in an area with extreme tourist traffic and roads every mile or so. Seems like a familiar saga.

 

[Bubblehide]

Seems like a vaguely similar issue we had in western SD not so long ago. The Black Hills deer and elk herds were losing numbers for years until it became a catastrophic issue with the elk herd. Mountain lions had moved back into the hills and our wildlife agency buried it's head in the sand about alpha predator control until entire herds were completely wiped out. Fast forward to present day where we control lion populations through science based hunting regulation and our deer herd and elk herd is recovering very well. All in an area with extreme tourist traffic and roads every mile or so. Seems like a familiar saga.

There was a study completed here in Ca a short few years back in the Mendocino National Forest due to the rapidly declining deer population. In short the accepted theory previous to the study was that predation could NOT have a significant impact on the deer herd population. The study concluded that predation was in fact the main significant factor in the deer herd population decline. You would think this outcome would have created a paradigm shift wildlife management; but from everything i've seen in this state (CA) thus far, their heads are still buried in the sand. Clearly the preferred population management is via predation. Considering human encroachment being the main factor in prime habitat loss withing Ca, such management practices are simply failing our wildlife. I'm just waiting to the wolves to grow in population and start finishing off some of our struggling herds of deer and elk.