Andree continued, noting that the aerial count numbers, combined with harvest data and winter condition information, is used to run a computer model that provides a population estimate. In 2002, an estimated 10,600 elk resided in the valley. By 2016, the number had dropped to an estimated 6,554 elk.
Straight from the 2013 update on the E-16 herd management plan:
Significant issues
Outdoor recreation and other human disturbance, habitat loss and fragmentation due to land
development, continued lack of large-scale habitat improvement projects have been the major issues for
this elk herd. Increased predator populations could also be affecting the elk population.
The human population in this area has grown rapidly since the 1970s, as many people are drawn
to the area by the ski areas, wildlife, open space, public lands, scenery and lifestyle. As a result, recreation
and habitat conversion have become the major impacts on wildlife. Land development has led to the
direct loss of habitat quantity and quality in the form of conversion of habitat into houses, other buildings,
and infrastructure; and fragmentation of habitat due to roads, trails, and structures. Outdoor recreation
has become a year-round presence on the landscape, particularly on public lands, and is the largest
indirect impact to the area’s wildlife populations. There is increasing demand for more recreational trails
to be established, as well as frequent use and expansion of unofficial trails, all of which fragment and
diminish the quality of remaining wildlife habitat, and create disturbances to wildlife on a year-round
basis. Human disturbances during critical periods for wildlife can reduce calf recruitment and increase
stress on wintering wildlife. There is now human disturbance during the summer in areas previously used
by wildlife for seclusion. More roads and vehicle traffic, along with increased driving speeds, have
resulted in more roadkill of elk, deer, bears, and other wildlife. Dogs, both on- and off-leash, also present
another stressor on wildlife and a potential source of mortality.
Existing, undeveloped habitat has been degraded not only by human recreational impacts, but
also due to long-term fire suppression and lack of habitat management which has led to older-aged, less
productive forage. Areas close to developments are now unlikely to be allowed to burn due to potential
damage to property. The cumulative effect is that both quantity and quality of habitat has declined for elk
in E-16. Development continues to occur on elk winter range; not at the rate that was observed in the
1980s through the early 2000s but the impact is still present and could escalate depending on the
economy. Without large scale habitat improvements, and probably even with improvements there are
certain portions of this DAU that may need to focus on the continued reduction of the elk population to
try and balance the amount of habitat that is available with the number of elk this habitat can support.
Bear, mountain lion, and coyote populations are believed to have increased over the past several
decades, and their predation on calves (as well as adult elk mortality by lions) could potentially limit the
elk population. Whether predation has a population-level effect on the elk herd depends on how close the
elk population is to carrying capacity, i.e., whether predation is additive or comp
