5-10 year plan... AZ or NV? somewhere else?

[bojangles808]

If you wanted to set yourself with a solid mid tier unit (would be down the road for bulls during the rut with a bow).. where you you start building points, arizona or nevada? or another state? (im already building in WY). Was leaning AZ so i could add in the mule deer point or maybe add in the otc hunts since i have to buy the license every year.

 

[DRUSS]

Both have tough odds, I am leaning more towards Nevada to be drawn in first. I have 8 pts there and 9 in Arizona.

 

[jm1607]

AZ you can cash in at some point. Some pretty solid units for 7-11 points.. NV is always random. I would pick AZ over NV if you could only do 1..

 

[bojangles808]

AZ you can cash in at some point. Some pretty solid units for 7-11 points.. NV is always random. I would pick AZ over NV if you could only do 1..

Thats what I was thinking. Not trying to get to a top tier 15-20 point unit just something in that 7-12 range that's still a good hunt

 

[WRO]

You could just put away 500.00 a year and buy a decent land owner tag in NM or a little more and buy a nevada tag.

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[toprut]

If you are not throwing your name in the hat for New Mexico draw each year, you are missing an opportunity in my opinion.

 

[dvm_hunter]

5-10 and I'm going Arizona. But, I'm in the same boat for Wyoming and Utah right now. But, I also put in for New Mexico every year. Man, that place is a mother humper to draw. I'm sure I'll start saving the cash and just buy a landowner tag one of these days.

 

[bojangles808]

If you are not throwing your name in the hat for New Mexico draw each year, you are missing an opportunity in my opinion.

problem is I'd have to plan out in advance with time off. it might cost be a chance to be able to draw a premium tag but id like to be able to know if i was going to draw or not with my points. saving for LO tag is a thought though

 

[Beendare]

AZ you can cash in at some point. Some pretty solid units for 7-11 points..

I hate to burst anyones bubble but that is a pipe dream. You are basing your 7-10 points comment on the past....but now the game in Az has changed. As non res we only get 1/2 the points we used to in the bonus round. Do you have any idea what that is going to do to the point creep? It doesn't take a genius to figure what happens when there are hundreds of guys with more points putting in for units that only give out a handful of tags per unit.

How many years will it take to clear 100 guys ahead of you with them giving out 5 tags in the bonus round.?.....its ugly....but of course you have lotto odds of plucking a tag in the gen round...so as Bill Murray says, "We got that going for us....which is nice"

Even now...the lesser 4 and 5 units in Az take 8 points and climbing. It isn't unreasonable to see the prime units gaining a point or two a year with folks needing 25 points or more to draw in another 10 years....sorry..but check the draw stats with the amount of avail tags and you will see.

 

[bojangles808]

I hate to burst anyones bubble but that is a pipe dream. You are basing your 7-10 points comment on the past....but now the game in Az has changed. As non res we only get 1/2 the points we used to in the bonus round. Do you have any idea what that is going to do to the point creep? It doesn't take a genius to figure what happens when there are hundreds of guys with more points putting in for units that only give out a handful of tags per unit.

How many years will it take to clear 100 guys ahead of you with them giving out 5 tags in the bonus round.?.....its ugly....but of course you have lotto odds of plucking a tag in the gen round...so as Bill Murray says, "We got that going for us....which is nice"

Even now...the lesser 4 and 5 units in Az take 8 points and climbing. It isn't unreasonable to see the prime units gaining a point or two a year with folks needing 25 points or more to draw in another 10 years....sorry..but check the draw stats with the amount of avail tags and you will see.

i feel like this wouldnt affect me as bad bc im not targetting a top tier unit. majority of the nonres that have 10pts right now im sure arent going to cash out now, 10 years in. id still have a tearly shot in the random draw too

 

[realunlucky]

That's his point the guy's with ten points realize they aren't going to draw the unit they hoped and cash thier points on a lesser unit driving up point creep all the way to the lest desirous units pushing them further out of reach.

Point creep effects everyone top to bottom.

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[Beendare]

That's his point .......
Point creep effects everyone top to bottom.

^^ exactly

Hey, I know Im being a bad news bear on this but the guys saying, "5 to 10 years to draw a tag" are basing that on the old system...old info without accounting for Point Creep.

The lesser units; 4,5 and 6 are as easy to draw as they used to be...becuase of the creep. it took 8 points [ in BR] last year to draw U4 or U5. A few years ago they took 4-5 points. And a few years from now it will take 10-11. It takes a very long time to catch up....and all the while you are paying for the license.

If you have the dough to do it...no worries...and at least now you have a longshot chance of pulling a tag in the gen draw. But at$160 a yr for the license...plus tag fees...in 20 years you will be out appx $3500....and probably still no primo tag. If you get frustrated and shoot for a lesser unit like 4,5....its still going to be 15 years+ [maybe] if you are just starting now....$2400+

As Bob and I have pointed out.....when you have backlog of hundreds of guys and only a handful of tags trickling out every year...the backlog [point creep] grows. AZFG has maxed out their funding on the backs of non res hunter applicants.

Don't shoot the messenger....just trying to help new guys with accurate info.

 

[DEHusker]

I keep getting my point every year in AZ, WY, etc for the following reasons. Yes, point creep sucks. Yes, there are not many tags. Yes, there are few units/seasons that are "primo." However, you can't win if you don't play. Also, whose to say that AZ won't completely revamp their draw in a few years when they realize that nobody is going to apply anymore when it becomes evident that drawing a tag will be almost impossible without max points to start with? The creep will trickle down to all units. Then wait till another horrendous drought and they really cut tags again...The only hope for non-near max point holders is a shot in the random draw. The random draw is still better than these crazy state "dream tag" drawings. I really want to hunt AZ someday so I'll keep applying. The real issue is going to arise if states like CO get rid of their OTC system. Can't see that happening anytime soon but if it does, that's when the wailing will begin! LOL.

 

[DEHusker]

If you are not throwing your name in the hat for New Mexico draw each year, you are missing an opportunity in my opinion.

I agree. Does anyone here think it's worth it to apply for the "outfitter draw." Or it is better, overall, to buy a landowner tag or get lucky in the "DIY draw?"

 

[dvm_hunter]

I agree. Does anyone here think it's worth it to apply for the "outfitter draw." Or it is better, overall, to buy a landowner tag or get lucky in the "DIY draw?"

I haven't drawn in New Mexico in 5 years. So there's that, but I still think applying for regular tag and saving for a landowner tag in the mean time. I know I put in for very low odds units, but when I draw the tag it'll be awesome.

 

[NoWiser]

I have 4 AZ points now. Hope to have 7 next year. I expect to draw a lesser AZ unit early archery in about 10 more years. I started applying my dad 3 years ago and will probably just quit applying him. Even late rifle is going to be creeping like a bass turd, which is the hunt I was planning on him drawing before he gets too old. I don't see that happening now. Just the way it goes.

 

[Jason Snyder]

If you're a bowhunter, I think I would look at Nevada for elk. However, I'm admittedly very unfamiliar with AZ.

 

[DWarcher]

If you're a bowhunter, I think I would look at Nevada for elk. However, I'm admittedly very unfamiliar with AZ.

Unfortunately Nevada's early archery hunts all end before mid-September which can make it tougher for rutting action. This year I think the 16th is the latest any of those hunts go with several ending before September 1st..

I would do mid-tier Arizona all day long. The stats from last year really didn't show guys in the max tier jumping ship.

 

[Bob b]

Arizona, they don't give out many non-resident elk tags in Nevada you could apply a long time before drawing one. This will be my 16th year applying there and no tag yet! But this is the year)

 

[NoWiser]

And, if you are starting out now, your chances of drawing Nevada are going to go down for many years before they start increasing.