2024 co elk recaps

[IrkedCitizen]

Over the years Ive used 32 years worth of PPs - on only 4 LE draws

I've been hunting Colorado since 2007 and have only drawn three first choice tags totalling 15pp used. The third one just drew this week so I haven't hunted it yet. I am 2/2 on the prior first choices. See if I can't keep the streak alive!

Edit: three first choice ELK tags

 

[DanimalW]

2018 was the year they stopped charging full tag price at time of application. So super cheap to just put in for points. I think there were a few other changes to the draw system that year also

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It only cost $10 once they issued the credit 6 months later. Now it actually costs around $120 each year for a NR.

 

[tboltz34]

I crunched some more numbers on point creep. I only included archery units/tags because I didn't feel like spending an eternity compiling data.

What I'm trying to find is the average number of points needed to draw. This is a weighted average because I factored in the number of tags given for each unit.

I classified the level of the unit based on how many points it took to draw in 2023.
0 Points: Zero
1-4 Points: Low
5-14 Points: Mid
15+ Points: High

The chart below shows every single unit from 2019-2023. You can see the average number of points DECREASED from 2019 (needed an average of 1.67 points to draw) to 2023 (needed an average of 0.76 points to draw. This is because a large number of tags went from OTC to draw and these units have been drawing at zero points. Because this is weighted, it is skewing the data.
View attachment 718665

The next chart shows all the units EXCEPT the zero point units. I believe this is a better representation of the overall point creep for Colorado archery tags. On average, each unit is creeping 0.49 points per year.
View attachment 718666

This chart shows only low units that required 1-4 points to draw in 2023. On average, these units are creeping 0.39 points per year.
View attachment 718668

This chart shows only the mid units that required 5-14 points to draw in 2023. On average, these units are creeping 0.875 points per year.
View attachment 718669

The last chart shows only the high units that required 15+ points to draw in 2023. On average, these units are creeping 1.2075 points per year.
View attachment 718670

I'll let you all draw your own conclusion.

I'd love to add 2024 data to this because then we can see how to R/NR allocation change has shifted the data. Additionally, I love to add data before 2019 so we can understand what point creep was like before COVID. However, I already spent too much time compiling data. Maybe some day I'll add more!

I did compile the 2024 data.

2019-2023 average point creep vs 2024 point creep:
1-4 points: 0.39 vs 0.76
5-14 points: 0.88 vs 1.28
15+ points: 1.21 vs 1.69
Overall: 0.49 vs 1.08



As expected, point creep was significantly worse for NR elk archery tags because of the reduction in tag allocation.

 

[TCUHunter34]

Different species but someone used 15 preference points on bear. This unit has 101 of the 150 total tags will be going to secondary and leftover draw

 

[IrkedCitizen]

Different species but someone used 15 preference points on bear. This unit has 101 of the 150 total tags will be going to secondary and leftover draw

Probably spent big points on deer or elk for the same unit

 

[RyanT26]

We seem to be at a point that if you cannot draw it right now, you’ll never catch it.

 

[IrkedCitizen]

The next 5 primary draws are going to be wild. It already started with this year but it's going to be worse.

A muzzy buck tag had a hunter use 14pp when it draws into 1pp.

 

[taskswap]

Well this is frustrating. I won't say the unit but it might not be hard to guess. My first choice took 6 points to draw last year, and I had 6. I assumed point creep might be a risk but somehow I did not draw, but the recap says somebody with 5 points got a tag. (As well as one with 6 but not me obviously.) How?

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Well this is frustrating. I won't say the unit but it might not be hard to guess. My first choice took 6 points to draw last year, and I had 6. I assumed point creep might be a risk but somehow I did not draw, but the recap says somebody with 5 points got a tag. (As well as one with 6 but not me obviously.) How?

Did you apply individually or with a group?

 

[tboltz34]

We seem to be at a point that if you cannot draw it right now, you’ll never catch it.

The data for the last few years does show that point creep can be over one, which would mean it cannot be caught. This is especially true at the mid and high point units. However, fundamentally, point creep cannot stay over one forever. Thats because only one point can be added each year.

What I think is happening is there’s been a lot of point banking for a long time since points can be accumulated while hunting OTC. People are now cashing in on those points because of all the craze. They are now realizing point creep is real and the unit they were originally targeting is further out of reach than expected. They are settling for a relatively worse unit and burning more points than needed to draw the tag- bringing up point creep even further.

I do expect point creep will continue for a long time (maybe forever), but not at the rate we have been seeing. I believe it will slow down- when I don’t know. People are pot committed since they have already been buying points and when they burn them, I think more people will be reluctant to hop back in. The data is already showing there are less people re-entering at the zero point level than the prior year. Additionally, once hunters that joined during the Covid years realize how hard it is, we should be seeing less jump back in. This is just my humble optimistic opinion!

Also, if every units goes to draw, the entire landscape will change. Likely for the better when talking about point creep.

 

[IrkedCitizen]

They are settling for a relatively worse unit and burning more points than needed to draw the tag- bringing up point creep even further.

Relatively worse unit? Every unit west of I-25 has deer and elk. Every one of those units has 180" bucks and 300" bulls in them. Difficulty level between units can vary but every unit has trophy animals in them!

 

[MuleyFever]

Alright which hunt planning website blew up my spot?

I was wondering the same thing. The unit we applied for had 23 apps with 5 or more points this year and only 4 apps with 5 or more last year. It really jumped.

 

[tboltz34]

Relatively worse unit? Every unit west of I-25 has deer and elk. Every one of those units has 180" bucks and 300" bulls in them. Difficulty level between units can vary but every unit has trophy animals in them!

Correct. They can be relatively worse for a variety of reasons. Trophy potential, number of animals, steepness of terrain, ease of access, amount of public land, amount of pressure, or any difficulty like you have mentioned. The number of points required to draw is how the general population perceives a unit. Right or wrong. Which is why some people are willing to wait 25+ years.

 

[chindits]

Someday you all will be talking about the points I burn on an antelope tag. I really don’t want to hunt them but I keep getting a pp for when I can’t hunt elk anymore.

 

[Hnthrdr]

Alright which hunt planning website blew up my spot? The number of nr applicants doubled from last year (but less tags went to nr this year so it creeped from 3 to 6 points). And it went from a low percentage chance to draw with 2 points to a 34% chance with 3 points for a resident. And that is with more tags available this year.

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Check huntin fool…

 

[IrkedCitizen]

Preference points were never designed to be a guage for trophy potential. They were a tool to gather points when you were unable to hunt so that when you had time to hunt you had preference over those who were hunting every year. Why this disconnect occurred is anyone's guess but it happened.

Too many people get it in their heads that since they have used 10, 20, 30pp that they must kill a giant and that score requirement ruined their hunt. Where they passed 300 class bulls for the notion that they could potentially turn up a bigger and couldn't. Or they pass a 300 and end up shooting a raghorn just so they don't go empty handed. This is too often the case.


Now my story:
In 2022 I used RES 13pp for a third season rifle bull tag in a "trophy" unit. It took me 14 years to accrue those 13pp. I know in the scheme of things this pails in comparison to other hunters. Nonetheless I spent 14 years planning and gather the gear. I had all the gear you could dream. Obviously I had the "330"+ or bust!!!" mentality.

Fast forward to the hunt, I saw a lot of animals and even managed to find one that surpassed my goal. I was unable to capitalize on him but I saw him nonetheless. I ended up killing a solid 6x6 on the last day of season that officially scored 304-4/8". I do not regret my bull. He looks amazing on my living room wall. My issue with the hunt? I hunted it solo! None of my family or friends could make it out on my hunt which had been in the works for 14 years. Nobody was there to relish in the fruits of my efforts with me. Sucks. I will always give them crap about it until the day I die.

Like I mentioned above, ALL UNITS WEST OF I-25 HAVE TROPHY ANIMALS IN THEM!! Stop getting hung up that you must hunt a specific unit because the quality of animals is better. It isn't. The grass isn't greener. Chances are still likely that when you find the animals they will be on private land. Grab your family and friends and go enjoy time in the woods.

10, 20, 30pp does not mean that you are going to kill an animal. Last year a Rokslider used 28pp in a trophy unit and I don't think he had a bull closer than 300 yards and he hunted over 20 days of the archery season. He hunted solo by choice, hiked his butt off, and was unfortunately unsuccessful. He hunted his hunt though even when people were offering to come help him.

 

[tboltz34]

Preference points were never designed to be a guage for trophy potential. They were a tool to gather points when you were unable to hunt so that when you had time to hunt you had preference over those who were hunting every year. Why this disconnect occurred is anyone's guess but it happened.

Too many people get it in their heads that since they have used 10, 20, 30pp that they must kill a giant and that score requirement ruined their hunt. Where they passed 300 class bulls for the notion that they could potentially turn up a bigger and couldn't. Or they pass a 300 and end up shooting a raghorn just so they don't go empty handed. This is too often the case.


Now my story:
In 2022 I used RES 13pp for a third season rifle bull tag in a "trophy" unit. It took me 14 years to accrue those 13pp. I know in the scheme of things this pails in comparison to other hunters. Nonetheless I spent 14 years planning and gather the gear. I had all the gear you could dream. Obviously I had the "330"+ or bust!!!" mentality.

Fast forward to the hunt, I saw a lot of animals and even managed to find one that surpassed my goal. I was unable to capitalize on him but I saw him nonetheless. I ended up killing a solid 6x6 on the last day of season that officially scored 304-4/8". I do not regret my bull. He looks amazing on my living room wall. My issue with the hunt? I hunted it solo! None of my family or friends could make it out on my hunt which had been in the works for 14 years. Nobody was there to relish in the fruits of my efforts with me. Sucks. I will always give them crap about it until the day I die.

Like I mentioned above, ALL UNITS WEST OF I-25 HAVE TROPHY ANIMALS IN THEM!! Stop getting hung up that you must hunt a specific unit because the quality of animals is better. It isn't. The grass isn't greener. Chances are still likely that when you find the animals they will be on private land. Grab your family and friends and go enjoy time in the woods.

10, 20, 30pp does not mean that you are going to kill an animal. Last year a Rokslider used 28pp in a trophy unit and I don't think he had a bull closer than 300 yards and he hunted over 20 days of the archery season. He hunted solo by choice, hiked his butt off, and was unfortunately unsuccessful. He hunted his hunt though even when people were offering to come help him.

Congratulations on the awesome bull and a great experience! Hunting is still hunting, no matter how many units it took to draw. There is never a guarantee.

 

[TheCougar]

I’m treading water. Not gaining ground and not losing ground. I’m hoping to hunt a unit in 2 years. Hopefully by then I’ll be able to get it and then quit playing the CO game. Sort of frustrating. You would think I would be slowly gaining ground, but it isn’t happening. I’ve been one point behind the unit for 5 years running.

 

[taskswap]

Did you apply individually or with a group?

Individually.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

Individually.

Is the applicant who drew at 5 pts in the same residency pool as you?