Wyoming General Points for 2020?

[TheCougar]

Curious what you think will be the minimum points for a regular general elk tag this year? I’m using WY as a backup plan and we’ve got 2.5 points. Last year was 29% at 2 points plus another 14% random. I’m starting to wonder if 2.5 points is a sure thing this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[harge57]

2.5 won't be a sure thing. All those people who didn't draw with 2 points now have 3

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

 

[wapitibob]

And all the groups with 1.5, 1.6667, 1.75 all have one more as well.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

I will play. Gonna take between 3.5 and 4 pp for a gen tag this yr.

 

[Mooseknuckle22]

Gohunt says 2.5 points should draw but it might take 3 to guarantee it. We're going in with 2.66 cause my stubborn dad didn't buy a point one year. I hope we draw and don't have to go to colorado for a 4th year in a row

 

[fatlander]

3 will still guarantee you a tag is my guess. These threads come up every year and guys are thinking there’s going to be a 1-1.5 point creep for Wyoming general tags but it doesn’t happen. Half a point in creep is probably the most you’ll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheCougar]

And all the groups with 1.5, 1.6667, 1.75 all have one more as well.

There’s 748 applicants who were unsuccessful between 1.51 and 2.0 points last year. Tack on an additional 94 applicants who applied at. 1.5 points last year. I think that’s doable for 2.5 points. Maybe not... this far I have proven to be a pretty crappy forecaster of point creep.

I’ve got a 10 hour car ride today and I’ll figure it out and post it.

 

[harge57]

There are a ton of people that didn't apply last year with 2 because they knew it was not a sure thing, but will apply this year with three. They are not in any of the draw odd numbers from WY.

My best guess is 2.75 will be the cutoff. So if you are at 2.5 it is likely just the random draw you are shooting for.



Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

 

[TheCougar]

Alright, so here’s the raw data:

Last year there were 1775 Regular NR General Tags handed out in the preference point draw. Of those tags, 1495 were drawn with greater than 2 points (>2), leaving 280 at the 2 point level, with a draw rate of 27.16%. What you can see as well is 511 tags went to between 2.01 and 2.99 points and 348 tags went to applicants above 3 points. This left 751 applicants at 2 points who didn’t draw in the PP round. There was also a random draw rate of 14%, and I’m going to assume that rate across all point totals at 2 and below. I don’t know the actual data for the random. After the random, there were 646 2 point applicants left last year. Also, there were 254 applicants between 1.5-1.99 points last year, minus the random pass leaves 219 applicants who didn’t draw tags last year and who will be in the
To account for point creep, I’m using the data from 2017-2019 to estimate the increase for 2020 point totals at 2.5 and above. Hey, you’ve got to make the unknown assumption somewhere...

>3 points = 348 (2019 total) * 1.4= 487 2020 apps
3 points = 646 (2019 unsuccessful 2pt apps) * 1.5 = 969 2020 apps
2.5-2.99 points = 219 (unsuccessful 2019 apps at 1.5-1.99) * 1.5 = 328 2020 apps

So assuming 1776 tags in 2020 (cuz ‘Merica), you’re down to 320 tags when you hit <3 points.
Frankly, there’s no way to know what the jump will be, but I’m guessing that the 2.5 level will be short of 100% draw as more and more guys jump off the LE and jump into the general pool. So I guess my 2.5 points as a backup plan, needs another backup plan...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Pwells10]

Alright, so here’s the raw data:

Last year there were 1775 Regular NR General Tags handed out in the preference point draw. Of those tags, 1495 were drawn with greater than 2 points (>2), leaving 280 at the 2 point level, with a draw rate of 27.16%. What you can see as well is 511 tags went to between 2.01 and 2.99 points and 348 tags went to applicants above 3 points. This left 751 applicants at 2 points who didn’t draw in the PP round. There was also a random draw rate of 14%, and I’m going to assume that rate across all point totals at 2 and below. I don’t know the actual data for the random. After the random, there were 646 2 point applicants left last year. Also, there were 254 applicants between 1.5-1.99 points last year, minus the random pass leaves 219 applicants who didn’t draw tags last year and who will be in the
To account for point creep, I’m using the data from 2017-2019 to estimate the increase for 2020 point totals at 2.5 and above. Hey, you’ve got to make the unknown assumption somewhere...

>3 points = 348 (2019 total) * 1.4= 487 2020 apps
3 points = 646 (2019 unsuccessful 2pt apps) * 1.5 = 969 2020 apps
2.5-2.99 points = 219 (unsuccessful 2019 apps at 1.5-1.99) * 1.5 = 328 2020 apps

So assuming 1776 tags in 2020 (cuz ‘Merica), you’re down to 320 tags when you hit
Frankly, there’s no way to know what the jump will be, but I’m guessing that the 2.5 level will be short of 100% draw as more and more guys jump off the LE and jump into the general pool. So I guess my 2.5 points as a backup plan, needs another backup plan...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You think the draw change this year might deter some applicants making it differ from your applied data?

 

[TheCougar]

You think the draw change this year might deter some applicants making it differ from your applied data?

There’s no way to know that. Personally, I don’t think so. It might deter people who were just hoping for a random draw on a general or LE. There’s also no way to know how many people who didn’t apply last year and will apply this year. I just used historical trends to make an educated guess. That’s all you can do. I have no data to back this up, but I tend to agree with the general consensus that a lot of guys like me are seeing the writing on the wall for point creep and are going to abandon the LE units in favor of hunting General. That, combined with Wyoming’s cheap system for building BP and the talk of reducing NR LE quotas are going to push more and more people into the general.

 

[Team4LongGun]

Would putting down a specific Elk area number as a preference increase chance of drawing over the GEN?

Or a combo of both such as
1. GEN
2. ##
3. ##

 

[KHNC]

The only thing for sure is the Credit Card companies are going to make a lot of interest money over the next 5 months!

 

[Indian Summer]

And all the groups with 1.5, 1.6667, 1.75 all have one more as well.

Exactly! You’ll need 3. Three point 1 would be even better.

 

[zpooch]

The only thing for sure is the Credit Card companies are going to make a lot of interest money over the next 5 months!

I've never understood this. Why would you float that money for 5 months on a card? If you can't pay for it now you shouldn't think you can pay for it later

 

[elkocd]

You think the draw change this year might deter some applicants making it differ from your applied data?

I actually think it will have some affect. With the late draw there will be a lot of guys who have already drawn other tags and or worked out other plans prior to the WY draw. In my case I will be in for a lot of other tags ranging somewhere between 5-50%. I will also be in for the WY general tag with 3 points. If I draw one of the other tags I will change my WY app to a hail marry hard to draw hunt from the general tag. In the past I would have stayed in the WY general pool and adjusted from there. Most definitely there will be a LOT more app changes in May than normal the way it was. Hard to say if that will actually offset point creep or not tho.

 

[TheCougar]

Would putting down a specific Elk area number as a preference increase chance of drawing over the GEN?

Or a combo of both such as
1. GEN
2. ##
3. ##

Not sure I understand. Preference points are only used on your first choice on the application for Wyoming. So your second ad third choices are only random odds, if that unit is undersubscribed for first choice applicants, which is unlikely.

 

[darcytribe]

I actually think it will have some affect. With the late draw there will be a lot of guys who have already drawn other tags and or worked out other plans prior to the WY draw. In my case I will be in for a lot of other tags ranging somewhere between 5-50%. I will also be in for the WY general tag with 3 points. If I draw one of the other tags I will change my WY app to a hail marry hard to draw hunt from the general tag. In the past I would have stayed in the WY general pool and adjusted from there. Most definitely there will be a LOT more app changes in May than normal the way it was. Hard to say if that will actually offset point creep or not tho.

So you can change your app units up until the draw? Can you change all three choices? If so that would by me time to get in some research and then make changes in units on my app later.

 

[wapitibob]

change deadline is May 8

 

[Team4LongGun]

Not sure I understand. Preference points are only used on your first choice on the application for Wyoming. So your second ad third choices are only random odds, if that unit is undersubscribed for first choice applicants, which is unlikely.

Thanks-although I was confusing and confused-you cleared it up for me