Will Vehicle Prices Ever Decrease?

[Fatcamp]

We planned on buying a camper this spring. With the price of fuel for my old duramax, we figured we would only do a few long (5-6 day) weekends so looked at RV Share to just rent instead. For $100 a day I can rent a brand new camper that's a good size for my family off of there. Don't have to worry about the cost and stress of storage, small stuff that always breaks, upgrades, furnishing, insurance, time cleaning after an exhausting weekend, miscellaneous headaches, etc. As the price of fuel goes up, more and more are being posted to the website as people realize they won't be able to afford using them as much. It pencils out nicely going that route IMO, worth it for people to look into.

Very nice. We will look at that.

 

[ben h]

I think the trend in general will go up, but you may find some bargains out there, but probably not very repeatable unless you're in the auto business.

Some years ago (financial crisis, I think), I read an article that said auto loans have a pretty low default rate, which also pushes loans higher because banks will lend 100% or more in many cases on the purchase price and they'll probably get paid back anyway even though there is no equity. That was odd for me to think about, but it sort of makes sense. If your house lost 20-30% or more like it did for many during the housing crisis, you can lose your house in foreclosure and move in with relatives, friends or do something else. but if you lose your car, your livelihood will be greatly hindered by not being able to go to work, the store or anything. Also a lot of people rely on their vehicles for work, like contractors. Think how expensive a breakdown is, when you are out of a truck, have 4-5 guys sitting and you're losing work? Makes an $800 payment seem cheap compared to a truck being out of service for 2-3 days.

 

[Mds2004]

I don't believe new vehicle prices will go down as the cost of parts and labor is only rising, and most accept it as the new norm.

Once the next bubble pops hopefully the value of used vehicles will drop some but not fully. I was fortunate to purchase my new truck thousands below MSRP as the chip shortage was starting. Now it is difficult to purchase anything below MSRP near me locally. Many even have added dealer markup on top; A dealer 2 hours away had 40k markup on a Toyota Rav4 making it $96,000!

We have been looking at buying a new 5th wheel toy hauler but will hold out until the bubble pops when people will start selling them lightly used. Anything brand new is thousands higher compared to a 2021 or even more compared to a 2020 model, with a lesser quality due to staffing issues and shortcuts. I will wait for the current owners to go through those problems before purchasing.

As for houses being so high, don't think of yourself as Zillow rich because you can sell at a remarkably higher price, as the next house you purchase will only have higher property taxes too. Odds are you will upgrade to a higher-priced home and then be that much more under after the burst.

Apologies for the long rant.

 

[BRTreedogs]

I don't believe new vehicle prices will go down as the cost of parts and labor is only rising, and most accept it as the new norm.

Once the next bubble pops hopefully the value of used vehicles will drop some but not fully. I was fortunate to purchase my new truck thousands below MSRP as the chip shortage was starting. Now it is difficult to purchase anything below MSRP near me locally. Many even have added dealer markup on top; A dealer 2 hours away had 40k markup on a Toyota Rav4 making it $96,000!

We have been looking at buying a new 5th wheel toy hauler but will hold out until the bubble pops when people will start selling them lightly used. Anything brand new is thousands higher compared to a 2021 or even more compared to a 2020 model, with a lesser quality due to staffing issues and shortcuts. I will wait for the current owners to go through those problems before purchasing.

As for houses being so high, don't think of yourself as Zillow rich because you can sell at a remarkably higher price, as the next house you purchase will only have higher property taxes too. Odds are you will upgrade to a higher-priced home and then be that much more under after the burst.

Apologies for the long rant.

Use auto trader .com and don't be afraid to fly out.
I was just looking at New Rav4 for the wife and they seemed normal msrp price. There were a half dozen about 100 miles away for mid to high 30s depending on model.

 

[fmyth]

The CPI report released today showed that used vehicle prices dropped .2% in February.

 

[trazerr]

I think March will show a much larger drop for used vehicle prices. My 2018 Tacoma peaked around $41.5k per KBB a few months ago. Early last week it showed over $39k. Yesterday it was $37.2k. Paid $32.4k OTD so still sitting pretty. Plus, Tacoma's are worth their weight in gold in the PNW, but it seems used vehicles are cooling a hair.

 

[fmyth]

The CPI report released today showed that used vehicle prices dropped .2% in February.

I'm sure our current administration will use this single metric to try to convince us that inflation is going away. They have a way of picking out one positive sign and waving it around like a victory flag.

 

[matthewmt]

Selling 2012 and 2002 tundra in the flathead valley if anyone is looking.

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[Elk97]

If, and it's a big if, fuel prices stay crazy high we could see people dumping their trucks for economy cars. There are a lot of people driving trucks that never use them as trucks and a lot of people have really long commutes. Saw this happen way back during the first big wave of inflation in the late 70s.

 

[grfox92]

I'm bumping that back to the top. Not sure if it's just my area, (NW WY, SW MT) but has anyone noticed a massive decrease in used truck and vehicle prices over the last 3 months? I watch and follow used vehicles via Facebook on a daily basis and have noticed a significant reduction in asking price. Stuff that was routinely $12K-15K is now $8-$12k, Fords, Toyotas, it seems to be across the board. Anyone else seeing this?

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[Dos Perros]

I’ve noticed the toys on Facebook are coming down in price, and lasting longer before selling.

 

[westernarcher]

Yup. snowmobiles are almost unsellable.

 

[SteveAndTheCrigBoys]

Not in WA/OR, though I stopped looking about a month ago after basically giving up and finally buying. Got what I want though at a reasonable price compared to the last 3 years.

 

[CorbLand]

N. Utah.

Sleds, quads and side by sides are coming down and sitting.

Pickups are coming down but not drastically. Toyotas are still holding their value. Maybe a 5-10% decrease across the board on all pickups.

 

[9.1]

Yup. snowmobiles are almost unsellable.

Global warming.

 

[100percent]

I'm bumping that back to the top. Not sure if it's just my area, (NW WY, SW MT) but has anyone noticed a massive decrease in used truck and vehicle prices over the last 3 months? I watch and follow used vehicles via Facebook on a daily basis and have noticed a significant reduction in asking price. Stuff that was routinely $12K-15K is now $8-$12k, Fords, Toyotas, it seems to be across the board. Anyone else seeing this?

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Not my monkey OR circus but, thought I would share a snippet from an update by my fleet rep. He‘s a cocky little rascal but, I hope he is just half right!


“Makers are attempting to get their finances in order post covid with all that has occurred including chip crisis, multiple union strikes and ev debacle. EV= Executive Vacuum! They are bleeding, shareholders screaming and executives are extremely nervous! They now have the components and are doing what they know best (and what they must do)—turning up production! Unions are getting paid regardless… Used cars are starting to pile up as Dealers attempt to prolong the once in a lifetime profits! Most dealers actually faired well through this but, the makers have been taking it on the chin! They have a full production mindset and inventory will build through year end. Dealers will be forced to take new inventory or lose incentives! Consequently, dealers will be heavily burdened to liquidate used inventories (already experiencing dramatic cliff in wholesale market). Dealer attempts at holding SRP pricing along with current rate rash curbing demand, new inventory will stagnate after the “newness” of availability wears off into new year. Makers will not stop the train of new inventory but, they will have to protect the dealers! The games will likely begin Q2 25 ahead of several new model introductions with consumer discounts, rebates and financing offers. Declining consumer fitness will drive makers to lower risk assessments and stretch terms with house lending arms.“

 

[Wheels]

Not my monkey OR circus but, thought I would share a snippet from an update by my fleet rep. He‘s a cocky little rascal but, I hope he is just half right!


“Makers are attempting to get their finances in order post covid with all that has occurred including chip crisis, multiple union strikes and ev debacle. EV= Executive Vacuum! They are bleeding, shareholders screaming and executives are extremely nervous! They now have the components and are doing what they know best (and what they must do)—turning up production! Unions are getting paid regardless… Used cars are starting to pile up as Dealers attempt to prolong the once in a lifetime profits! Most dealers actually faired well through this but, the makers have been taking it on the chin! They have a full production mindset and inventory will build through year end. Dealers will be forced to take new inventory or lose incentives! Consequently, dealers will be heavily burdened to liquidate used inventories (already experiencing dramatic cliff in wholesale market). Dealer attempts at holding SRP pricing along with current rate rash curbing demand, new inventory will stagnate after the “newness” of availability wears off into new year. Makers will not stop the train of new inventory but, they will have to protect the dealers! The games will likely begin Q2 25 ahead of several new model introductions with consumer discounts, rebates and financing offers. Declining consumer fitness will drive makers to lower risk assessments and stretch terms with house lending arms.“

Looks like they will flood the market and offer 0.9% interest for 96 months on their $90K 1/2 ton pickups... And then blame the Union because the workers make a livable wage.

 

[CB4]

As mentioned dont be affraid to fly or drive somewhere. Use facebook and autotrader to your advantage. Bought my truck 300 miles south and saved roughly 5k. I rented a car one way for $50 and drove the truck back. Bought my wife's suv 600 miles away and flew there for $200, paid for an uber then drove it back. Saved almost 7k on that one. Comparing them to local prices.

My inlaws bought a new expedition while on vacation in FL a couple years ago as it was thousands cheaper than anything locally as well.

Here in Iowa I do think truck prices are starting to level out and even seeing below MSRP prices. Large SUVs are still very unreasonable but those are the only two I ever look at.

 

[grfox92]

As mentioned dont be affraid to fly or drive somewhere. Use facebook and autotrader to your advantage. Bought my truck 300 miles south and saved roughly 5k. I rented a car one way for $50 and drove the truck back. Bought my wife's suv 600 miles away and flew there for $200, paid for an uber then drove it back. Saved almost 7k on that one. Comparing them to local prices.

My inlaws bought a new expedition while on vacation in FL a couple years ago as it was thousands cheaper than anything locally as well.

Here in Iowa I do think truck prices are starting to level out and even seeing below MSRP prices. Large SUVs are still very unreasonable but those are the only two I ever look at.

Agreed. I will go on FB Market place and punch in locations surrounding me. It's amazing (but obvious) how different the Market is 3 hours away in a little city in Montana compared to rural Wyoming, just more vehicles available.

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[Skerhunter]

I get a report every month that includes the estimated trade-in value for our nice truck. Price has dropped $20k in the last 6 months. It’s currently about $10k-15k higher than pre-covid prices (exactly what I paid for it). Hopefully we see those prices again, but who knows.

What has me curious is what happens when everyone goes to trade in their $80-$100k truck they bought at the peak, that’s now worth $10-20k on trade?