Will Vehicle Prices Ever Decrease?

[MattB]

My house was built for $200k in 2002. Sold again at $400k in 2005. We bought it as a short sale at $315 in 2013, with some weird second mortgage on it, and today is worth $500k. It's been a wild ride.

To keep with the theme, it is 2008 in the used car market right now.

 

[Customweld]

I’ve been debating on getting a new “big” truck. I have a 2012 Tacoma that I drive daily to work. I also have an’01 GMC HD that I have had for 18 years. I use the GMC like a borrowed mule. Skidding logs, pulling trailers on sh!tty roads, just generally beat the snot out of it. It’s old and things are starting to head south on it. I am mechanically inclined, but not to the tune of rebuilding transmissions. Last year, I tore the front end out of it, had it rebuilt and was back at it. I also have. an overhead camper that I haul with it. I’d like to upgrade and can afford to do so, but just can’t bring my self to do it.

 

[CamoPirate]

I’ve been debating on getting a new “big” truck. I have a 2012 Tacoma that I drive daily to work. I also have an’01 GMC HD that I have had for 18 years. I use the GMC like a borrowed mule. Skidding logs, pulling trailers on sh!tty roads, just generally beat the snot out of it. It’s old and things are starting to head south on it. I am mechanically inclined, but not to the tune of rebuilding transmissions. Last year, I tore the front end out of it, had it rebuilt and was back at it. I also have. an overhead camper that I haul with it. I’d like to upgrade and can afford to do so, but just can’t bring my self to do it.

Those ones if I remember correctly are a pretty easy drop and switch, probably cheaper and easier to just buy a used one and swap.

 

[Forestryguy]

I have two different buddies now that bugged me to come moose hunting so I swung it for them to come moose hunting with me at an extreme discount. They both have new houses, $80K+ pickups, and new ATVs but neither of them could swing saving $3K over 12 months for a moose hunt. They were almost offended at the price. It blew my mind and opened up my eyes even more to the way most Americans live.

What the Jones' have has never held much appeal for me and I'm very grateful for it; the Jones' are obviously broke. I really think the chickens will come home to roost on all this stuff just like in 2008.

I work for a guy, every now and then, that has a yard care Buisness. He tells me all the time people complain about how much it costs for weed control and fertilizer applications. But they will buy a $7 coffee daily. It will be even worse this year. Fertilizer is up almost 100%.

 

[go_deep]

I have two different buddies now that bugged me to come moose hunting so I swung it for them to come moose hunting with me at an extreme discount. They both have new houses, $80K+ pickups, and new ATVs but neither of them could swing saving $3K over 12 months for a moose hunt. They were almost offended at the price. It blew my mind and opened up my eyes even more to the way most Americans live.

What the Jones' have has never held much appeal for me and I'm very grateful for it; the Jones' are obviously broke. I really think the chickens will come home to roost on all this stuff just like in 2008.

I'll be your friend for a $3k moose hunt. I don't have a new house, truck, and I don't know who the Jones are. Lol!

Joking a side, your right most people thing they got to have it all, and they got no idea what they could really have if they didn't spend it all.

 

[FLATHEAD]

I have done fairly well for myself, but I am amazed at the numbers of new, 80K$ trucks I see pulling 100-300K$ offshore boats. I can't see sinking that kind of money
into things that depreciate so rapidly.
Course, I'm just a hillbilly, what do I know.

 

[Will_m]

Yes on leasing. The world is moving to rent/lease model. People don’t want to own anything anymore, just pay for it by month. Think Spotify, Netflix, Adobe, Pro Tools, etc.

I know a couple who have never owned a car. Currently have two Porsches and a tundra. Just pay by the month. I bought a tundra for cash not long ago. Saved 20 years for it. The ability to buy a needed item and not have it affect monthly outflow is good.

Sure hurts letting go of that cash, though.

 

[CHSD]

Every time a vehicle gets purchased the state collects sales tax, a dealer pays at least 5 employees ( salesperson, sales manager, finance manager, service tech, title clerk, etc) and we all pay taxes too. Cars are a crucial part of the economy, and people love owning and driving them. They have always been expensive in relation to average income, and they’ve never been safer and better built than they are right now. In the 70’s we traded cars before they hit 100k because we knew they would fail us. That doesn’t happen today. The sky is not falling. And honestly, I pencil a few hundred quotes per month and can count on one hand the number of times a payment exceeds $1k per month- and this is in N.J.

On those quotes you have penciled out, how many months are the loans for? I completely agree that the auto industry is vital to our economy. Are people coming in with large down payments to avoid the 1k payments every month? I am also curious how many people bring a trade and a down payment with them, or is it mostly just trades?

 

[Yoder]

What’s it worth now?

Just checked. $155k according to Zillow. Not bad. 17 years and over $50k in repairs just to break even. I should start a new show on how to make a fortune flipping houses.

 

[Graybush]

On those quotes you have penciled out, how many months are the loans for? I completely agree that the auto industry is vital to our economy. Are people coming in with large down payments to avoid the 1k payments every month? I am also curious how many people bring a trade and a down payment with them, or is it mostly just trades?

Most people are putting money down and financing between 60 and 72 months. About 40% have a trade, and most of those have positive equity.

 

[Throwin Darts]

Big interest rate hikes coming and consumer confidence hit an 11 year low. I think I’ll wait a bit and see better prices before long

 

[h2so4]

I don't think new vehicle prices will drop to much in the future. maybe a couple of grand per vehicle, but that isn't really much. Ford just increased the price of the F150 across the board by $1,500 on Monday. Glad I ordered mine last Friday. 3% below invoice, FYI. Don't get suckered into paying above MSRP or sticker. I have the luxury of time, so I don't have to have it right now, which saves about $10k.

 

[h2so4]

We need a "flip phone" in the automotive industry.

I believe you are referring to the ford maverick..

 

[mac53]

I went looking the other day. The dealer had 2 trucks that I was interested in.
One was a 2019 Ram 2500 Tradesman with 15000 miles they were asking 47,500 for it. The other was a 2022 1500 Big Horn with the Hemi for 50,000.

Couldn't believe the closeness of the prices and what they offered for my truck.

They offered me 23.000 for the truck that I bought used for 23.700 last year. It has 80,000 miles on it.
With the rebate on the new truck and what little down payment I would end up not upside down.

So I have been debating on if I should trade or not.

 

[spaniel]

When production (chips) can return to normal and meet demand, I'm sure prices will come down. But not down to what they were. If I could avoid buying now (with a 2yr horizon) I would. Same with powder/primers.

I bought a 2016 F150 in 2018 for ~29K. In Nov 2021 I totaled it hitting an iced bridge towing a camper (camper still in limbo). Knowing the truck was likely totaled I searched out a replacement and got a 2018 that was almost the exact truck...41K. About the same miles I'd bought the 2016 at. The kicker is that while I added >50K miles to the 2016 while I owned it, they paid me a couple thousand more for it than I paid for it so it eased the pain of the replacement.

 

[Fatcamp]

Wonder how demand for fifth wheel campers and heavy trucks will be in 8 weeks?

At these prices many won't be able to make payments and buy fuel.

 

[aftriathlete]

Wonder how demand for fifth wheel campers and heavy trucks will be in 8 weeks?

At these prices many won't be able to make payments and buy fuel.

I’ve been thinking the same thing the last week, plus I can’t tell you how relieved I am to have just sold the 3/4 ton diesel daily driver last month now that a gallon of diesel at my local station here is $5.49 today. I don’t think the Tacoma I got is much better on fuel economy, about 18 mpg, but at least it’s regular unleaded. In late 2008 you could get full size trucks for a song, I wouldn’t be surprised if this softens the market for gas-thirsty vehicles in the near future.

 

[Coldtrail]

Be interesting to see what this gas crisis does to the new vehicle market, I would think lots of families that "needed" a new $70,000 truck for grocery gettin' and hauling hockey sticks might be wishing they kept the 4 cyl sedan, not to mention the premium gas burning rec vehicle industry.....although a decrease in rec vehicles tearing around the woods won't cause me any loss of sleep

 

[william schmaltz]

Wonder how demand for fifth wheel campers and heavy trucks will be in 8 weeks?

At these prices many won't be able to make payments and buy fuel.

We planned on buying a camper this spring. With the price of fuel for my old duramax, we figured we would only do a few long (5-6 day) weekends so looked at RV Share to just rent instead. For $100 a day I can rent a brand new camper that's a good size for my family off of there. Don't have to worry about the cost and stress of storage, small stuff that always breaks, upgrades, furnishing, insurance, time cleaning after an exhausting weekend, miscellaneous headaches, etc. As the price of fuel goes up, more and more are being posted to the website as people realize they won't be able to afford using them as much. It pencils out nicely going that route IMO, worth it for people to look into.

 

[BRTreedogs]

Id think at $5 plus a gallon big block trucks will start dropping.