Will the Fed break the back of outfitted hunts

[Sierra Hunter]

Curious peoples thoughts on if the Feds interest rate hikes will drive down the cost of hunts that have seen a spike over the past few years. With the cost of gas, supply chain, trending down and interest rates up will there be a readjustment? Or is the market immune, for reference used car prices were 20k on average for tenYears and peaked at 29k after stimulus infusions but are now trending back down. Would be curious to hear from outfitters in particular regarding supply/demand and if COGS are down.

 

[BRTreedogs]

If the outfitters costs are rising as well how do you expect they could lower the price?

It appears you believe outfitters have little to no costs and that they are mostly profit.

The demand may lower because people can't afford it but imo the outfitters won't be able to do a hunt for less.. but demand for tags hasn't lowered.
There costs are the same things that have gone up for everyone else.
Vehicles, fuel, food.
Imo there will be some one that will fill the slot.
But if not I'd expect the outfitter to offer less hunts and work there other jobs more.

 

[Norm555]

Pretty wild to see the cost of sheep hunts spike. I think they were mostly $20k or slightly less in AK a couple years ago but most are $30k or more now. Obviously they're even more expensive in the NWT.

 

[southLA]

If the outfitters costs are rising as well how do you expect they could lower the price?

It appears you believe outfitters have little to no costs and that they are mostly profit.

The demand may lower because people can't afford it but imo the outfitters won't be able to do a hunt for less.. but demand for tags hasn't lowered.
There costs are the same things that have gone up for everyone else.
Vehicles, fuel, food.
Imo there will be some one that will fill the slot.
But if not I'd expect the outfitter to offer less hunts and work there other jobs more.

It is not unlikely that we experience a deflationary period within the next several years, driving down the cost of said variable costs.

 

[IdahoElk]

I think the intended outcome of the Fed raising interest rates is to drive up prices of everything, kill the middle class and imploded the financial system. So I think your outfitter will continue raising rates as a result of their cost of doing business getting higher.

 

[IdahoElk]

It is not unlikely that we experience a deflationary period within the next several years, driving down the cost of said variable costs.

What will cause this "deflationary period"?

 

[CorbLand]

Unless the raising costs of everything puts a crunch on peoples ability to do outfitted hunts, pricing won’t come down. Demand is too high and a lot of outfitters are booked a couple years out.

 

[svivian]

Raising interest rates in theory should drive down costs however there are two factors. One is I would hope/assume most going on guided hunts can afford these and are paying in cash. And Two, we have developed a culture in our world where people decide if they can afford something by what the monthly payment is rather than the amount and length of these loans....

 

[Sierra Hunter]

If the outfitters costs are rising as well how do you expect they could lower the price?

It appears you believe outfitters have little to no costs and that they are mostly profit.

The demand may lower because people can't afford it but imo the outfitters won't be able to do a hunt for less.. but demand for tags hasn't lowered.
There costs are the same things that have gone up for everyone else.
Vehicles, fuel, food.
Imo there will be some one that will fill the slot.
But if not I'd expect the outfitter to offer less hunts and work their other jobs more.

My position is that the fed is attempting to drive down “inflated” costs which would drive down costs for outfitters as well.

 

[fngTony]

Raising interest rates in theory should drive down costs however there are two factors. One is I would hope/assume most going on guided hunts can afford these and are paying in cash. And Two, we have developed a culture in our world where people decide if they can afford something by what the monthly payment is rather than the amount and length of these loans....

Dave Ramsey, is that you? .

 

[HornPorn]

For the growing majority of guided hunters, they have reached a point of wealth where their discretionary spending is not subject to the ebbs and flows of the economy or the markets. Since they represent the demand (we all know which way supply is going), no I don't see hunts getting any cheaper.

 

[Sierra Hunter]

For the growing majority of guided hunters, they have reached a point of wealth where their discretionary spending is not subject to the ebbs and flows of the economy or the markets. Since they represent the demand (we all know which way supply is going), no I don't see hunts getting any cheaper.

This is where I land as well when I think about it

 

[eye_zick]

Inelastic demand.

Look at the prices of the Hunting Expo auction tags. Demand is higher than ever. A downturn from any economic factors would probably take years to clear off the backlog list.

 

[hunt1up]

I'd say it's a hard no on prices coming down. I'm a long time DIY guy but have recently been on and booked a few guided trips. Waiting lists are long and prices are only going up. Supply is greatly being outpaced by demand.

 

[william schmaltz]

No. The demand is insane for top end operations. I have a good friend that takes about 20 groups a year. Most of his clients are return clients and for the few spots that aren't, he has literally hundreds of people waiting in line. And that's without any advertising, hunting shows, or social media. I was out at his place last winter when he made one social media post on a Friday and when we got back to town Sunday afternoon, he already had over a hundred emails of people inquiring to hunt. And that's for DIY and not guided. The demand is nuts. He wouldn't unless his costs forced him to, but he could easily charge double.

 

[tdhanses]

I went to a banquet this past weekend, outfitted hunts here in the US and in Africa went for close to retail, which is much higher than they historically go for. People are still spending money.

 

[MattB]

The cost of outfitted hunts by and large did not go up because of inflation, but rather due to supply/demand. With the continued concentration of wealth in the US, I don't think that higher interest rates will have much of an impact on guided hunt costs.

 

[Dos Perros]

What will cause this "deflationary period"?

Demand destruction.

ETA: and stabilizing supply chains.

 

[roadrunner]

It may cause a few smaller operators to go of business. I'm not an outfitter, but I can't imagine the OBI to be more than 20%.

 

[jmez]

When is the last time anyone here remembers outfitted hunt prices decreasing?