Will the Fed break the back of outfitted hunts

[sneaky]

Take sheep tags for instance, you have a couple hundred tags available every year for a finite resource. Thousands of people wanting to hunt said resource. Why in the hell would you lower prices when you can't come close to meeting demand?

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[Rich M]

When is the last time anyone here remembers outfitted hunt prices decreasing?

When has anything come down?

They want $2,800 for a 1-day 6-person fishing trip down here and then expect a 20% tip! LoL! Im paying close to that for a 3-day antelope hunt.

Amazing.

Prices are higher than they need to be but plenty of guys will pay the price, hurts the rest of us.

 

[MattB]

When has anything come down?

They want $2,800 for a 1-day 6-person fishing trip down here and then expect a 20% tip! LoL! Im paying close to that for a 3-day antelope hunt.

Amazing.

Prices are higher than they need to be but plenty of guys will pay the price, hurts the rest of us.

Bartender rule #1: if you can’t afford the tip, you can’t afford the drink.

 

[kybuck1]

Post covid is a new world. Most minimum wage jobs are now like 15/hr pay now. The terrible thought process was trying to increase that and nothing else would be affected. Without trying to go down the political rabbit hole I feel like hunts will continue to rise steadily. 10 years from now you'll likely say you wish you would have done a hunt that was multiple thousands less that it is at the time. Wouldn't surprise me if biologist organization or some type of epidemic happens as well along the way that limits tags and prices spike even more because of that. Just like everything in life price/demand type scenario.

 

[kentuckybowman]

No, hunts will continue to go up year over year.

 

[Marshfly]

There is a point in wealth where higher interest rates change from increasing "cost" to increasing return. If you are on the latter side of that curve, you get wealthier as rates increase. People doing $30k hunts every year are on the latter side of that curve.

If that seems crazy to you, learn how to get on the other side of the curve.

 

[Rob5589]

Hunting, especially guided, is a luxury. Prices are going to go up, not down.

 

[t_carlson]

For the growing majority of guided hunters, they have reached a point of wealth where their discretionary spending is not subject to the ebbs and flows of the economy or the markets. Since they represent the demand (we all know which way supply is going), no I don't see hunts getting any cheaper.

The largest generation of hunters (boomers) are retiring and running out of health. We could be experiencing a once-in-history demand spike.

IMO, that’s also been a significant factor in the housing market. People are reaching the age where a winter house in AZ is both financially feasible and practically realistic.

I went to a banquet this past weekend, outfitted hunts here in the US and in Africa went for close to retail, which is much higher than they historically go for. People are still spending money.

That’s because the squeeze hasn’t really started yet.

I was pheasant hunting with a couple of millionaires in the fall of 2008. One of them checked his portfolio at lunch and announced he’d lost 40K that morning. Contrary to what others on this thread may claim, people with “guided hunt money” (whatever amount that is) will lose money in the coming recession. And, they will cut back their spending, even if they still have enough money to go.

Aside from trust fund babies, the rich aren’t dumb with their money. If they are dumb, then they’re not rich for very long.

The best time to make money is in a recession, and they know that. They’ll lose some of it, and then circle the wagons and wait.

I’m predicting hunt prices will at least stagnate for a long time, if not drop.

 

[Marble]

I dont think the economy will return into normal growth until inflation returns to normal levels and there is someone more suitable in the Whitehouse to breathe confidence into the broader market.

I would predict a recession of some type, lasting most of a year. After, the economy will slowly fight its way to a standard annual GDP and prices will stabilize.


Prices of luxury items can be well below market value. That would include guided hunts. Generally, most things return to their standard growth rate, on the same path they were on before and stabilize where they were at prior to all of the chaos.

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[Glory]

The largest generation of hunters (boomers) are retiring and running out of health. We could be experiencing a once-in-history demand spike.

IMO, that’s also been a significant factor in the housing market. People are reaching the age where a winter house in AZ is both financially feasible and practically realistic.


That’s because the squeeze hasn’t really started yet.

I was pheasant hunting with a couple of millionaires in the fall of 2008. One of them checked his portfolio at lunch and announced he’d lost 40K that morning. Contrary to what others on this thread may claim, people with “guided hunt money” (whatever amount that is) will lose money in the coming recession. And, they will cut back their spending, even if they still have enough money to go.

Aside from trust fund babies, the rich aren’t dumb with their money. If they are dumb, then they’re not rich for very long.

The best time to make money is in a recession, and they know that. They’ll lose some of it, and then circle the wagons and wait.

I’m predicting hunt prices will at least stagnate for a long time, if not drop.

I think you are right. Every year a lot of boomers are dropping out of the hunting/fishing pool and that will only accelerate. I think the little surge in demand will be short lived.

 

[MallardSX2]

There are a lot of people who are getting into hunting in today's world that don't know how to hunt, and they have no choice but to use guides. I think it will continue to go up in cost.

50 years ago, most people didn't "need" to use guides as most people actually did know how to hunt. They may have gone with an outfitter to just get to a basecamp, but more often than not, they didn't have someone holding their hand telling them when to shoot and what to shoot.

The dumber people get, them more things are going to cost. Because, quite frankly, that's the way the world works. If you don't know something, and you have to pay for it, be it advice or skill that is out of your capability as a human, other people can almost name their price.....

Guides have really fed hard on this in the last few decades. Tag allocations, prices of hunts, gohunt, taghub, huntinfool etc etc.

 

[kybuck1]

The Covid epidemic totally changed the mindset for a large portion of the population. All of a sudden instead of crowded beaches, large cities, etc they camped and spent time outdoors. A lot of these same people have friends that hunt and fish and peaked their interest. There is a big population in the 25-35 age group that are a holistic mindset with organic on their mind. Good jobs that pay a lot, not much time off, and no real hunting experience to do it themselves. 5K in the past is the new 10K for this crowd. The high dollar hunts will continue to draw big prices just simply due to demand. There is no bubble to burst its a new standard.

 

[def90]

Guided hunts are a luxury item/expense. The price an outfitter charges is going to be decided by what the market will pay. As long as the guide service maintains a good reputation and has a waitlist of hunters prices will only go up.

 

[S.Clancy]

The best possible outcome is a period of no appreciation. Outfitted sheep hunts aren't really applicable to typical demand destruction because they are reliant on the top 5% of earners. The top 5% usually don't take it in the teeth during anything, outside of maybe the great depression.

 

[WalterH]

Speaking to Alaska specifically, guided hunts and other related hunting services like transportation, etc. will only get more expensive. Demand exceeds supply and will continue to do so, and service providers expenses continue to grow.

 

[TheTone]

I think there are a number of outfitters that have realized they can go with fewer clients at higher rates and maybe have the same revenue with less work and probably less cost to them

 

[WalterH]

I think there are a number of outfitters that have realized they can go with fewer clients at higher rates and maybe have the same revenue with less work and probably less cost to them

I know for a fact that several guides and transporters have done exactly that for the coming year. Scaled back trips, increased rates. Less work and stress for the same or better income. Can't blame them. One also told me that they are weeding out pain-in-the-ass past clients as part of the scale down as well. Not many good reasons to deal with PITAs if you don't have to...