Where is the Ammo Really Going?

[CO-AJ]

I have a buddy who is a manager at Scheels. I don't pay attention to this stuff so I was amazed when I went to his store recently and the ammo shelves were empty. He said the same handful of guys shows up every day and buy whatever they can before it even makes it to the shelves. Said they are like hyenas. It doesn't matter what make or caliber it is, they buy it. I mentioned it to a relative of mine a few days later and he showed me photo of a pile of ammo and reloading components that he had accumulated. I looked at the picture and he didn't even own any firearms of the calibers he had in the pile and he doesn't reload. I was dumfounded. He said that he'll use it to sell or barter in the future.

Personally, I have a few dozen rounds for my hunting rifle that I loaded a while back and about 10 boxes of 9mm that I bought years ago when Cabelas had a killer sale. I can easily make that last for a couple years or until whenever prices come down. Hoarding this stuff makes zero sense to me.

Agree, these guys think they are going to make some windfall sale off the stuff they hoarded. I would suggest if it got to where we were that desperate the whole monetary system may have collapsed and these guys are going to be stuck with rounds of 30-40 Krag and some bizarre dies they have no idea what to do with. Makes zero sense. As those of us familiar with weapons already have a good stash we have no reason to panic buy and can wait, therefore I am hoping we see prices drop and availability increase. A couple of "big box stores" near me are starting to get some back on the shelves, which is great to see.

 

[Marbles]

2018 numbers are hugely depressed from actual production capability. In 2018 most manufacturers had laid off a significant number of workers...Remington was running at a quarter or less capacity due to finances and you could barely give ammo away.

As I stated above Federal makes many times more than 1,000,000 per day. I know the OP said he got the numbers from guys that work at Federal but they are grossly wrong.

How about some supporting evidence?

Per NSSF, centerfire (handgun and rifle) ammunition production was 3.6 billion in 2012, 3.7 billion in 2015, and 3.6 billion in 2018 (those are the years I can find data for). Shotshell production was 1.4 billion in 2012, 1.4 billion in 2015, and 1.0 billion in 2018. Rimfire production was 4.5 billion in 2012, 5.4 billion in 2015, and 4.1 billion in 2018. Even if we take the totals (9.5 billion, 10.5 billion, and 8.7 billion) you are talking about at 17.1% reduction in 2018 from 2015. To be more favorable to you, we could say 20.7% more ammunition was produced in 2015 than in 2018.

Being generous, and assuming you know full well that centerfire production has remained stable, and assuming 2015 represented a normal year (rather than a spike in demand, which is what it actual was due to the .22 rimfire bubble), and ignoring that in 2017 only 8.1 billion rounds were produced, and ignoring that demand for ammunition increases under democrat presidents (Obama in 2012 and 2015), sure we can call 2018 "hugely depressed."

Production is not an on/off sort of thing. I would be very surprised if manufactures reached 2015 production levels in 2020. I have my doubts that 2021 production will surpass the 10.5 billion rounds of 2015 as well.

I have no data on Federal's production capacity, if you have more than supposition please share. My point that 1 million rounds a day is not a huge share of the market (even in a "hugely depressed" year) still stands. It actually supports your statement that Federal probably makes more than that. Not sure why you felt my post challanged that and you needed to restate it. In the context of the OP's point, it makes more sense to take his numbers at face value.

This format is easier to read than the paragraph format I used above.

 

[WCB]

How about some supporting evidence?

Per NSSF, centerfire (handgun and rifle) ammunition production was 3.6 billion in 2012, 3.7 billion in 2015, and 3.6 billion in 2018 (those are the years I can find data for). Shotshell production was 1.4 billion in 2012, 1.4 billion in 2015, and 1.0 billion in 2018. Rimfire production was 4.5 billion in 2012, 5.4 billion in 2015, and 4.1 billion in 2018. Even if we take the totals (9.5 billion, 10.5 billion, and 8.7 billion) you are talking about at 17.1% reduction in 2018 from 2015. To be more favorable to you, we could say 20.7% more ammunition was produced in 2015 than in 2018.

Being generous, and assuming you know full well that centerfire production has remained stable, and assuming 2015 represented a normal year (rather than a spike in demand, which is what it actual was due to the .22 rimfire bubble), and ignoring that in 2017 only 8.1 billion rounds were produced, and ignoring that demand for ammunition increases under democrat presidents (Obama in 2012 and 2015), sure we can call 2018 "hugely depressed."

Production is not an on/off sort of thing. I would be very surprised if manufactures reached 2015 production levels in 2020. I have my doubts that 2021 production will surpass the 10.5 billion rounds of 2015 as well.

I have no data on Federal's production capacity, if you have more than supposition please share. My point that 1 million rounds a day is not a huge share of the market (even in a "hugely depressed" year) still stands. It actually supports your statement that Federal probably makes more than that. Not sure why you felt my post challanged that and you needed to restate it. In the context of the OP's point, it makes more sense to take his numbers at face value.

This format is easier to read than the paragraph format I used above.
View attachment 292641

Most all these theories and ideas are guys are taking numbers like the OPs at face value. That is the problem. I wasn't exactly challenging your post I was driving the thought on the post to more correct thinking. Same reason I commented to the OPs original post. I have a lot more than supposition. I can physically see the production and know the numbers.

It is just a common theme that as soon as someone throws out a number everyone sticks with that number. Then nobody looks at it and thinks if Federal produces 365,000,000 rounds and for kicks Winchester produces the same and Remington produces the same (which they don't) that is, we will just call it, 1.1Billion rounds....where does the other 7 Billion + rounds come from? They aren't being imported that is for sure even though a lot of ammunition does. And the next runners up like Hornady, Sig, Black Hills, company x, y, and Z make fractions of the big 3 and honestly the rest of the industry combined don't touch the top producers numbers. We are not ammunition built for the military strictly civilian market.

I agree it is perplexing where the heck it is all going. I get the end number of 8billion, 7billion, 10 billion whatever is the number to look at and go WTF? But it can really open eyes when you tell people. X brand makes 2-3million 22lr rounds per day (or more) where does it all go.

 

[Marbles]

Most all these theories and ideas are guys are taking numbers like the OPs at face value. That is the problem. I wasn't exactly challenging your post I was driving the thought on the post to more correct thinking. Same reason I commented to the OPs original post. I have a lot more than supposition. I can physically see the production and know the numbers.

Sorry, I miss understood your intent. Thank you for clarifying.

I agree, people have a habit of latching on to numbers as fact. Even the NSSF numbers are estimations.

 

[Traveler]

Am I missing something? Who is the OP implying is buying all the ammo?

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If you don’t imply you can’t ever be proven wrong. It’s a classic tactic for people that want to stir shit up while having no idea what they are actually saying...”someone, I don’t know who but someone...”

 

[switchback7]

i do have to say that i went to Cabelas today and they had 3 kinds of .223 and 1 kind of 5.56. All the ammo is behind the counter and they have a board with all the ammunition calibers listed. They then had the ones they had in-stock circled. i went for .22LR but left with two boxes of 5.56..

 

[HuntingIndian]

i am a new gun owner (less than 2 years). i ended up purchasing several several thousand rounds of popular ammo (9mm, 308, 22lr, 44, 12g) in the last year at a premium. It really sucks but it is what it is. when i look at it the ammo i have, it's a drop in the ocean compared to people who has been using guns for many years.

 

[switchback7]

i am a new gun owner (less than 2 years). i ended up purchasing several several thousand rounds of popular ammo (9mm, 308, 22lr, 44, 12g) in the last year at a premium. It really sucks but it is what it is. when i look at it the ammo i have, it's a drop in the ocean compared to people who has been using guns for many years.

do you have firearms for the ammo in your cache ? or you just bought up popular rounds?

 

[HuntingIndian]

do you have firearms for the ammo in your cache ? or you just bought up popular rounds?

ofcourse i do have firearms for those ammo. otherwise what am i gonna do with the ammo? throw and hope for the best? LOL

 

[switchback7]

ofcourse i do have firearms for those ammo. otherwise what am i gonna do with the ammo? throw and hope for the best? LOL

LOL you'd have to have one hell of an arm!!

 

[Marble]

i am a new gun owner (less than 2 years). i ended up purchasing several several thousand rounds of popular ammo (9mm, 308, 22lr, 44, 12g) in the last year at a premium. It really sucks but it is what it is. when i look at it the ammo i have, it's a drop in the ocean compared to people who has been using guns for many years.

Is there a particular reason why you bought so much? This isn't a question I'm gonna use to bait you into something. I'm just really interested as to why you bought so much.

At times I've bought a thousand or so .223 when it was on sale and I was going squirrel shooting. Or I was low on .22 and found a deal and bought a thousand. But I've never wanted large amounts of 9mm or any other pistol round, or larger rifle rounds.

12 gauge I'll buy a case at a time (if I can find it) and it may last me a summer if I have league or 3 years if I don't lol.

Thanks!

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[Mule3006Elk]

Is there a particular reason why you bought so much? This isn't a question I'm gonna use to bait you into something. I'm just really interested as to why you bought so much.

At times I've bought a thousand or so .223 when it was on sale and I was going squirrel shooting. Or I was low on .22 and found a deal and bought a thousand. But I've never wanted large amounts of 9mm or any other pistol round, or larger rifle rounds.

12 gauge I'll buy a case at a time (if I can find it) and it may last me a summer if I have league or 3 years if I don't lol.

Thanks!

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Following.
Same I only buy when needed and not large quantities.

 

[5MilesBack]

I load my own for most of the guns I have, but I buy 9mm and .223/5.56 when no one else wants it. You know, when literally everyone had the chance to buy for really cheap.......and didn't. Then I unload it all when literally everyone seems to want it for ridiculous prices.......just like I do with the stock market. Humans have a tendency of following the same patterns over and over. I just try to do my part to help train them up.

 

[HuntingIndian]

Is there a particular reason why you bought so much? This isn't a question I'm gonna use to bait you into something. I'm just really interested as to why you bought so much.

At times I've bought a thousand or so .223 when it was on sale and I was going squirrel shooting. Or I was low on .22 and found a deal and bought a thousand. But I've never wanted large amounts of 9mm or any other pistol round, or larger rifle rounds.

12 gauge I'll buy a case at a time (if I can find it) and it may last me a summer if I have league or 3 years if I don't lol.

Thanks!

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

sure. trying to think back 2 years ago when i first started and remember what my thought process was.

gee the world's gone crazy. i need a gun.

well i dont know anything about guns. so i start reading up on guns and laws, very confusing and discouraging to get a CCW permit for a handgun. but found i dont need one for long guns. went and took NRA Basic Shotgun Shooting Course, to get familiar with shotgun. went and bought the biggest 12g bullpup shotgun there is (later realized i had no practical use for it, and eventually sold it). ended up with a nice 12g over under shotgun.

i wised up and took NRA Basic Rifle Shooting Course, then bought a m1 rifle. i was happy for a bit. i ultimately wanted to own a handgun, so i had take courses and apply for CCW permit, then got one. collected a couple of 9mm pistols. but ammo got expensive, without practice these guns are useless, well 22lr is still affordable. i bought a nice 22lr pistol and tons of ammo for it. i can practice with it extensively while i still can use 9mm sparsely.

then i realized i always wanted to hunt, guns are just one of many tools to get there. i started learning about hunting (books, youtube etc). i realized i dont have right tools.After reading quiet a bit, i bought a nice bolt action 308 rifle which for most NA game should be enough with right shot & grain (not gonna debate about 270, 300, 30-06, 338 etc as i have ZERO experience other than book knowledge). i am happy with it (for now). i bought enough hunting rounds for the rifle. i wanted a backup gun while hunting or scouting. so i bought a 44 mag revolver (after debating about 454 casull).

anyhow thats how i ended up different firearms and ammo (Mind you, i havent set foot on the ground by this point)

i am a token n00b to the extreme.

my learning curve for hunting is hilarious as well.

 

[Timeless61]

Is there a particular reason why you bought so much? This isn't a question I'm gonna use to bait you into something. I'm just really interested as to why you bought so much.

At times I've bought a thousand or so .223 when it was on sale and I was going squirrel shooting. Or I was low on .22 and found a deal and bought a thousand. But I've never wanted large amounts of 9mm or any other pistol round, or larger rifle rounds.

12 gauge I'll buy a case at a time (if I can find it) and it may last me a summer if I have league or 3 years if I don't lol.

Thanks!

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Not who you directed this to, but I think it’s all how much someone shoots or plans to shoot. This can even be buying x amount for z years. I also have thresholds I don’t like to get below depending on the caliber; the same goes for reloading components as well. I try to have at least enough components for a barrel from the start. If I do that I don’t run into issues down the road with availability. Overall I prefer not to limit my shooting based on availability or prices in the near term so that means buying more at once when things are cheaper preferably.

I am newer here but have been on other shooting/hunting forums and it seems that members here (at least the ones commenting at times) do not shoot a great amount. I did not think anything of the person buying several thousand rounds of different calibers.

 

[KHNC]

Well, this ammo buying craze earned me a 30 day ban on The Facebook. Some slimy douche got his picture took selling 9mm for 75.00 per box on the side of the road in Texas. I commented "Run The Fkr Over,LOL". Got a 3 day ban which I disagreed with. The reply from FB, "You are now banned for 30 days for inciting violence"

Lol. B a stards.

 

[CorbLand]

Well, this ammo buying craze earned me a 30 day ban on The Facebook. Some slimy douche got his picture took selling 9mm for 75.00 per box on the side of the road in Texas. I commented "Run The Fkr Over,LOL". Got a 3 day ban which I disagreed with. The reply from FB, "You are now banned for 30 days for inciting violence"

Lol. B a stards.

I would take that as a win and just delete my account.

 

[timekiller13]

It's just a bunch of panic buying. I was just at my local gun store, they are pretty well stocked on ammo right now. While I was standing there browsing the fishing stuff, older guy walks in with his wife and says "Any limit on ammo?" Guy behind the counter said "One box per cartridge, per customer. And one case limit on 9mm, 223 and 45 acp, 12 gauge per customer" The old dude and his wife subsequently bought a case each of 9, 45, 223 and 12 gauge shotgun shells. They also each got one 50 round box a piece of 380, 40, 38, and one 500 round box of 22 lr each. These two people were in their late 70s early 80s, easily. Aint now way they are shooting all that. Hell, the wife could barely hold the 500 round box of 22LR, so I know she ain't shooting no 12 gauge shotgun. Old dude will probably take it to the flea market and sell it for double. Or, just hoard it in his basement and then brag to all his other old buddies at the cafe that he has thousands of rounds of ammo.

 

[EastMT]

Basspro had every caliber this morning, not a ton but all the sought after ones. 6.5cm, 308, 06, 223, 9mm, 45, 40. Looked like a couple cases of each arrived.

Also scored 1000 WIN 5.56 primers, haven’t used them before but need some coyote loads so I’ll figure it out.

I don’t need any but have family in LE that need some plinking rounds so I picked up the 5 box limit for him, HOPEFULLY people are stocked up enough it calms down soon.

Is it wrong to double the price for family? JK!

 

[Marbles]

Is it wrong to double the price for family? JK!

Only if they are in-laws, than it should be triple.