Where is the Ammo Really Going?

[Marble]

HEY ! whats wrong with the Ruger American!? lmfao

Idk??? I've killed a ton of shit with mine. Probably more than any other rifle I have.

I have a .223 I shoot out to 400 at squirls and it's pretty impressive.

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[Mosby]

I know a Dr in Texas that has so much ammo, primers and powder, he had to build a separate building on his property to store it. Insurance company told him they wouldn't insure his house otherwise. I bet he doesn't hunt a week a year. His brother has a reloading bench with 2 Redding turret presses and a Hornady progressive. He doesn't shoot 50 rounds a year. Last time I talked with him he was hunting with ammo from Georgia Arms. Why spend thousands and never use it? Never made any sense to me.

 

[hodgeman]

I doubt very seriously Federal is making a million rounds a day. A million is a lot.

The only U.S. companies making a serious bunch of ammo is Federal, Winchester and Remington...and Remington was offline most of the year. Even then, those guys make components for almost everyone else in the business.

My local stores are getting ammo in nearly everyday...and it sells out everyday.

 

[CorbLand]

The problem is that everyone thinks that 1,000,000 rounds is a lot but when you put it into perspective, you learn it’s nothing. If Federal produced 1,000,000 rounds a day for 328 days, that’s enough ammo to give each person in the US 1 round.

Now roughly 40% of Americans own a gun, so that’s about 130 million people. So, if they produced a million rounds a day, year round the allocation for each person is less than 3 rounds.

In order to provide each gun owner with 50 rounds each they would need to produce 17.8 million rounds a day for a year. Even if only a third of gun owners where buying 50 rounds a year, they would need to produce 5 times what they are a day to meet that demand.

Multiply that out by the quantity people are really purchasing.

This is all done assuming that they are only producing one caliber or cartridge too. Like I said, a million rounds a day, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the demand for ammo.

Even if manufacturers could source the materials they needed, you still have limitations on how much can be produced at a time. Nobody saw any of this coming and there was no way to prepare for the sudden surge. It was overnight. We had five 1000 round packs of 556 that sat the shelves since 2016 and were marked down to 350 a piece. We sold them in an hour in April 2020. We were selling 9mm by the case and multiple cases at a time.

It’s not some conspiracy. The government is not buying all the .22 and dumping it in the ocean. It’s simply that there is way way way more demand than supply.

 

[TheGDog]

If I didn’t mouth breath my allergy problem would have killed me long ago.

3 words - Breathe Right Strips!

 

[hunt1up]

I know plenty of guys that buy boat loads of ammo with each scare that comes up and it largely just sits.

After Sandy Hook there was all sorts of panic buying around here. I'll admit that I participated in some hoarding in that one. I was younger and dumber back then though.

 

[USMC-40]

I guess I am part of the 'problem' as described in this thread. I have a decent amount of ammunition stored - primarily 5.56/9mm.

Question is, how much is enough? The dems are talking about taxing it, and probably will try, and possibly succeed. Which means prices we are accustomed to are forever gone. Do I regret my hoarding? Absolutely not. In fact, I live by the motto 'better to have and not need, than need and not have' - especially with firearms and ammunition.

 

[Reburn]

The problem is that everyone thinks that 1,000,000 rounds is a lot but when you put it into perspective, you learn it’s nothing. If Federal produced 1,000,000 rounds a day for 328 days, that’s enough ammo to give each person in the US 1 round.

Now roughly 40% of Americans own a gun, so that’s about 130 million people. So, if they produced a million rounds a day, year round the allocation for each person is less than 3 rounds.

In order to provide each gun owner with 50 rounds each they would need to produce 17.8 million rounds a day for a year. Even if only a third of gun owners where buying 50 rounds a year, they would need to produce 5 times what they are a day to meet that demand.

Multiply that out by the quantity people are really purchasing.

This is all done assuming that they are only producing one caliber or cartridge too. Like I said, a million rounds a day, it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the demand for ammo.

Even if manufacturers could source the materials they needed, you still have limitations on how much can be produced at a time. Nobody saw any of this coming and there was no way to prepare for the sudden surge. It was overnight. We had five 1000 round packs of 556 that sat the shelves since 2016 and were marked down to 350 a piece. We sold them in an hour in April 2020. We were selling 9mm by the case and multiple cases at a time.

It’s not some conspiracy. The government is not buying all the .22 and dumping it in the ocean. It’s simply that there is way way way more demand than supply.

This sounds good math wise. BUT. We didn't all start on zero. I personally wont buy OR SELL ammo at inflated prices. I have enough supply to last me and I'm not going to participate in this market. It will come back down like it always does and there will be a glut of ammo out there. Then after prices normalize I'll buy cheap and stack deep like I always have.

 

[Mule3006Elk]

Truth is we probably aren't being told the truth. We the people are trying to sort out the truth based on non-truth. I call BS along the supply lines, if in fact, the manufactures are producing the quantity they claim. Which they do claim ammo production is normal! I've been on a waiting list for 6+ month, few online well known ammo distributors (Midway etc.), and have received zero product arrival notifications.

 

[mtnwrunner]

I don't think you can believe anything you hear. And it don't really matter......the one thing I know for absolute certainty is its not on the shelf.

Randy

 

[5MilesBack]

Here's a thought...was there a conspiracy to buy up all the toilet paper when Covid hit?

Apparently. Last year in Feb or Mar I was in Costco, and I was literally the only person there that didn't have two large packages of toilet paper in their cart. I finally had to ask someone if they were giving it away.......and why everyone had it in their carts. They said they heard there was a shortage because of covid. So there I was scratching my head on why a respiratory virus would cause normal every day people to run out and load up on toilet paper of all things. Definitely a conspiracy......the covid conspiracy. My wife ended up buying one of those packs from Costco several months later......that is some of the worst toilet paper I've ever used. Apparently most of those people had never tried it before.

Perhaps it's the same thing with ammo. A bunch of idiots were told to stock up on ammo because of covid, so they did.......and still are. But I've been in Sportsman's Warehouse maybe 3 or 4 times in the last 6 months and every time I was there, they have a sign in the front with any ammo they have in stock. They've had 9mm in stock every time I've been in there. It's 55 cents a round and I wouldn't buy it, but they have had it. Apparently people lined up for hours before the new Scheels store opened here recently. The news was asking people in line why they were waiting so long for the opening. Every one of them said "because we heard they would have ammo"....LOL.

Sounds like most people that are buying right now or trying to buy right now aren't middle aged white men. It's a bunch of folks that weren't prepared to begin with before the shortage started. Most of the middle aged white men I know, already had their over-supply of ammo and components long before covid hit. Those are the guys that still have primers in their basements that are in packaging from decades ago.

 

[CO-AJ]

my cabelas does not have an ammo section, either. just a section for reloading components

i think they are straying away from their business model after bass pro scooped them up. they now have an almost bigger section of knick knacks and home furnishings/gifts than ammo and reloading. getting pretty pathetic.

 

[Marble]

My. 02 is paranoia has led to more paranoia. It's happened before and will probably last into next year. As far as reloading supplies, I'm good until next year for the guns I've always hunted with. But for some new guns, I can't get shit to reload for them.

I got two 6.5 PRC rifles and cant get brass or bullets for either. I think I'm good on powder.

My hunting buddy is out of H1000. So I'll probably give him some of mine.

I think when this happened around 2009 or 2010 it was a 2 year cycle.

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[switchback7]

i think they are straying away from their business model after bass pro scooped them up. they now have an almost bigger section of knick knacks and home furnishings/gifts than ammo and reloading. getting pretty pathetic.

yeeep, and getting away from the fantastic warranty they used to have, too. I wont shop at cabelas unless i absolutely have to now. I DID just buy a .22 from them.. lol

 

[CorbLand]

This sounds good math wise. BUT. We didn't all start on zero. I personally wont buy OR SELL ammo at inflated prices. I have enough supply to last me and I'm not going to participate in this market. It will come back down like it always does and there will be a glut of ammo out there. Then after prices normalize I'll buy cheap and stack deep like I always have.

No, we didnt all start at zero but that is not my point. My point is OP thinks that there should be more ammo on the shelves because Federal is producing 1,000,000 rounds a day. In reality 1,000,000 a day is not enough to supply every gun owner in the US with one box of 9MM a year but people aren't buying one box a year, they are buying two a week or more. All I am saying is we live in our own world and think that 1,000,000 rounds a day? Thats so much ammo when really, in the grand scheme of everything, its nothing.

You should stock up during the good times. I came of age in the heart of the Obama era and told myself that I wouldn't get caught with my pants down in the future. I started purchasing things as I had the money and over the last 8 years or so, I have accumulated a lot. I haven't bought much since May of 2020 and definitely haven't paid the insane prices people are charging. When things calm down again, I will watch for deals and buy a little bit more. Nothing wrong with stocking up during the good times.

 

[CHSD]

I watched a guy back in October walk into Walmart and ask if they had any .223 he could go shoot through his AR. Walmart obviously did not have any as they had cleared them out over a year ago. They had very little ammo on the shelves but did have about 15 boxes of 30-06. The guy asked how many boxes he could buy. The Walmart associate told him as many as you want. He proceeded to buy all 15 boxes. The guy he was with ask him how much he shot his 30-06 and he told him just sighting in for deer season. He boldly stated, "I have to buy it, its the only ammo that I have been able to find."

Its funny to me how the went in to go blaze through some ammo with his AR and ended up with 300 rounds of 30-06 he shoots once a year.

More power to the guy for getting his supply. Just seems silly to me.

I have not problem stocking up on ammo. I prefer to buy a box here and there and building it slowly over time. I just wonder how many of these people will stock up so they do not have to panic buy the next time an ammo panic happens.

 

[WCB]

This got me thinking a lot. Yesterday had chat with my neighbor, he's been working at Federal Cartridge for nearly 20-years in Anoka, MN. He told me yesterday that that they make and produce 1-million Rounds of ammo per day there between Rimfire, Centerfire and Shot-shell, mind you he said again 1-million per day/3-shifts. They get shipped to Distributors then. One of my best friends/Hunting Buddy also works there but is the Buyer for all Ammo Components to keep the lines going and he confirmed this as well.

This is just one of the Manufactures People, just one of Many who produce Ammo. My neighbor really thinks there is one group out there buying up most of the ammo from the Distributors or once it goes to market.

Take a wild guess who's buying it all up or at least most of it. This really got me thinking.

He thinks this group is buying up close to 75% of all ammo once at Distribution. There should be more on the shelves out there.

Just my 2-cents. I know this has been Discussed to death but he gave me some real numbers on one of the manufactures, just one of them.

Yes, those two guys are great to have as friends if you know what I mean......lol

Federal makes WAY more than 1,000,000 a day. Federal and Winchester are by FAR the two largest manufacturers (minus government facilities). They are very similar in output and there is no way they are supply less than 1 billion rounds combined.

I know for a fact in the late years of Obummers term Federal produced over 5.5 Billion rounds. Heck Federal just reported 3 quarter revenue of over $500million you don't do that making 1million a day. This info is not hearsay either.

 

[Marbles]

A little perspective.

How Much Ammunition is Produced for the United States Market?

The United States has entered another ammunition bubble, where demand has exceeded the ability of manufacturers to supply.

www.ammoland.com

So, if demand for ammunition in 2018 allowed production of 8.7 billion rounds for the US market (excluding Lake City production for the military), even assuming manufactures can squeeze out an additional 1 billion rounds to meet demand increases that is only an 11.5% increase in supply. A 15-20% increase in civilian demand at the moment is probably an under estimation, but would be more than enough to outstrip supply.

The fact that Federal produces 0.365 billion rounds a year hardly demonstrates anything, other than that they produce less than 5% of normal demand (2018) when operating at maximum capacity.

 

[NoWiser]

I have a buddy who is a manager at Scheels. I don't pay attention to this stuff so I was amazed when I went to his store recently and the ammo shelves were empty. He said the same handful of guys shows up every day and buy whatever they can before it even makes it to the shelves. Said they are like hyenas. It doesn't matter what make or caliber it is, they buy it. I mentioned it to a relative of mine a few days later and he showed me photo of a pile of ammo and reloading components that he had accumulated. I looked at the picture and he didn't even own any firearms of the calibers he had in the pile and he doesn't reload. I was dumfounded. He said that he'll use it to sell or barter in the future.

Personally, I have a few dozen rounds for my hunting rifle that I loaded a while back and about 10 boxes of 9mm that I bought years ago when Cabelas had a killer sale. I can easily make that last for a couple years or until whenever prices come down. Hoarding this stuff makes zero sense to me.

 

[WCB]

A little perspective.

How Much Ammunition is Produced for the United States Market?

The United States has entered another ammunition bubble, where demand has exceeded the ability of manufacturers to supply.

www.ammoland.com

So, if demand for ammunition in 2018 allowed production of 8.7 billion rounds for the US market (excluding Lake City production for the military), even assuming manufactures can squeeze out an additional 1 billion rounds to meet demand increases that is only an 11.5% increase in supply. A 15-20% increase in civilian demand at the moment is probably an under estimation, but would be more than enough to outstrip supply.

The fact that Federal produces 0.365 billion rounds a year hardly demonstrates anything, other than that they produce less than 5% of normal demand (2018) when operating at maximum capacity.

2018 numbers are hugely depressed from actual production capability. In 2018 most manufacturers had laid off a significant number of workers...Remington was running at a quarter or less capacity due to finances and you could barely give ammo away.

As I stated above Federal makes many times more than 1,000,000 per day. I know the OP said he got the numbers from guys that work at Federal but they are grossly wrong.