WEZ hit rates.

[stan_wa]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

 

[Formidilosus]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

You don’t have to do that.

At 600 yards in broken terrain, with an average of 10mph wind speeds:

6mph= the average shooter that actually practices, has a kestrel, but rarely shoots in mountainous terrain.


4mph= “Trained” shooter- such as a recent graduate of a mil sniper school that deals with winds, or from someone that shoots relatively frequently in new environments with wind.

2mph= near world class. Shoot thousands of rounds a year in novel broken terrain in high winds, with focused practice.

 

[huntnful]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

That sounds like a job for @solarshooter haha.

I don’t think it’s ASKING you to enter anything. The entries are up to you, and the info you want to see IMO. If you shoot on a flat area that hardly has any wind, a 2 MPH could be perfectly acceptable.

 

[Skerhunter]

Not at all. Same data, but 400 yards

View attachment 852971

This is fun thanks for sharing! I would love to see all the creeds and prcs compared in one post but that sounds like too much work !

You have some data on larger calibers you can compare to the 22 creed (like 300 prc 212eld @ 2950?).

 

[huntnful]

This is fun thanks for sharing! I would love to see all the creeds and prcs compared in one post but that sounds like too much work !

You have some data on larger calibers you can compare to the 22 creed (like 300 prc 212eld @ 2950?).

I wish the calculation took recoil into effect but it doesn’t. But I’ll do a few examples of real cartridges that I own and shoot and share the differences. They aren’t much honestly.

I was checking my 6.5-7 PRC vs. a 300 NMI at 1000 yards and the hit rate was only 5% in favor of the 300 NMI, with 100% more recoil

 

[CTXhunter]

Not at all. Same data, but 400 yards

View attachment 852971

You are a gentleman and a scholar

 

[stan_wa]

You don’t have to do that.

At 600 yards in broken terrain, with an average of 10mph wind speeds:

6mph= the average shooter that actually practices, has a kestrel, but rarely shoots in mountainous terrain.


4mph= “Trained” shooter- such as a recent graduate of a mil sniper school that deals with winds, or from someone that shoots relatively frequently in new environments with wind.

2mph= near world class. Shoot thousands of rounds a year in novel broken terrain in high winds, with focused practice.

Would you say just double it with a 20 mph wind ?
Your guidance here is based on aligning real world hit rate % to a wes wind input that give you hit rate that matches your observations ?

 

[Formidilosus]

Would you say just double it with a 20 mph wind ?
Your guidance here is based on aligning real world hit rate % to a wes wind input that give you hit rate that matches your observations ?

That’s probably close enough to work. Even 10mph winds in broken terrain is really hard to call, 20mph is functionally impossible for almost all.

 

[huntnful]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

 

[TheM1DoesMyTalking]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

View attachment 853265

The 3-5% difference in hit rates between a 0.5 and 1.5 MOA system is good to highlight here because it's not common knowledge among hunters.

How do these hit rate percentages compare with your experience with these rifles at each distance?

 

[huntnful]

The 3-5% difference in hit rates between a 0.5 and 1.5 MOA system is good to highlight here because it's not common knowledge among hunters.

How do these hit rate percentages compare with your experience with these rifles at each distance?

I’ve honestly never tracked first round hit rates close enough to even speak remotely accurately to a 3-5% potential difference. I just know I rarely center punch the middle of the plate at 1000 yards with any rifle, under any variable wind conditions.

Also though, as the target get smaller the hit rates do increase more, percentage wise, as the rifle’s accuracy increases.

 

[Runwilderness]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

View attachment 853265

Looking at this makes me think I really need to establish my ‘rifle’ accuracy in various positions…with a statistically relevant group size.

I know my wind holds will be the primary factor at long ranges…and I won’t take those shots. But the question for me is now what MOA loss would cause me to now take that 300-400 yard shot…and which position do I first hit that limit (prone = 1.5 moa for my rifle, but seated supported, seated unsupported, kneeling, leaning on a steep hillside with sage jabbing me in the groin…I don’t have those numbers worked out yet)

 

[stan_wa]

what MOA loss would cause me to now take that 300-400 yard shot

I was thinking the same thing,I have done prone with hunting bipod and light weight rear bag vs bench rest several times and found those to be very similar.

I also want to see how those precisions differ with my 6 cm vs my 28 nos . Irl there is some precision loss with recoil, and the really interesting question I wanna prove to my self firsthand is can I realize the benefit of the lower winds drift with more recoil. It’s mostly academic because getting better at reading wind is obviously the powerful Nob to turn.

 

[huntnful]

Yeah these are definitely numbers related to being proned out with a rear rest IMO. And even then, 2 MOA would be a better predictor. I'm just crunching numbers for numbers sake here.

The recoil on my 3 example rifles would be about:

10lb 22 CM no muzzle device - 8ft lbs
12 lb 6.5-7PRC muzzle brake - 10ft lbs
13lb 7-300 NMI muzzle brake - 13ft lbs

Just me looking at numbers and recoil and what not, the 6.5-7 seems pretty sexual on paper. And is easy AF to shoot in real life.

 

[Runwilderness]

I was thinking the same thing,I have done prone with hunting bipod and light weight rear bag vs bench rest several times and found those to be very similar.

I also want to see how those precisions differ with my 6 cm vs my 28 nos . Irl there is some precision loss with recoil, and the really interesting question I wanna prove to my self firsthand is can I realize the benefit of the lower winds drift with more recoil. It’s mostly academic because getting better at reading wind is obviously the powerful Nob to turn.

Playing with Leica AB+ shot probability analysis, my 147 ELDM load (2645 fps with 20SD) goes from 86% on their elk vital target at 400yds when taking a 6mph wind error and the 0.4mil precision (about 1.5moa) 20round group I shot prone post barrel cut/thread and moving to the Rokstok and drops to only 54% if I let my group open up to 1.7mil (about 6moa) due to a positional change.

If my wind calls improved to 2mph, I’d still me at only 63% if my shooting position forced into a 6moa capable shooter.

 

[huntnful]

Here’s a real world, prone field position, with the heaviest recoiling rifle in that lineup. I think it was 470 yards or so.

You can either bring the equipment necessary, and take the time necessary to improve your stability… or not. But it’s a decision. You don’t have to be unstable as hell and shoot an animal in 17 seconds at 500 yards if you decide not to. It will cost you very few animals. It has cost me 0 animals so far. And when it does cost me an animal, no big deal, because it was my decision.

 

[Formidilosus]

As for actual accuracy with regards to hit rate, there is a reason the shoot2hunt target was made.


Take a target like that, and measure the on demand ability to establish the precision for the WEZ.

Rifle shot cold- no zero check, no adjustments; aim center for every shot no matter where they are hitting. Start standing with rifle in hand, go prone- fire one shot. Unload, standup. Then go prone again- fire one shot. Repeat for at least 10 rounds- all rounds count. Better if you do 20 or 30 rounds. Your worst shot tells you the “accuracy/precision” to out in the WEZ.

This was shot by a shooter cold first thing. Flew in, the next day put all his hunting gear on and started in the drill. Untimed-




For him and this setup he has a 1.75 MOA system.

Then, do the exact same thing except each string you have 10 seconds to go from standing to prone and fire one shot.

Same shooter as above- 10sec time limit-


Here he is 2.5 MOA for the system.


This is the only way to get an accurate number for the WEZ on precision. Your group sizes while zeroing, etc. are functionally useless. It’s a “hit rate” which means point of impact is centered, not a “great group .5 MOA from center” thing.


The 10 second per string timed version…. Is actually what shows up in the field on demand- whether someone takes rushed shots or not. People in the field on animals do not shoot as well as they do on the flat range.

 

[huntnful]

As for actual accuracy with regards to hit rate, there is a reason the shoot2hunt target was made.


Take a target like that, and measure the on demand ability to establish the precision for the WEZ.

Rifle shot cold- no zero check, no adjustments; aim center for every shot no matter where they are hitting. Start standing with rifle in hand, go prone- fire one shot. Unload, standup. Then go prone again- fire one shot. Repeat for at least 10 rounds- all rounds count. Better if you do 20 or 30 rounds. Your worst shot tells you the “accuracy/precision” to out in the WEZ.

This was shot by a shooter cold first thing. Flew in, the next day put all his hunting gear on and started in the drill. Untimed-

View attachment 853487


For him and this setup he has a 1.75 MOA system.

Then, do the exact same thing except each string you have 10 seconds to go from standing to prone and fire one shot.

Same shooter as above- 10sec time limit-
View attachment 853489

Here he is 2.5 MOA for the system.


This is the only way to get an accurate number for the WEZ on precision. Your group sizes while zeroing, etc. are functionally useless. It’s a “hit rate” which means point of impact is centered, not a “great group .5 MOA from center” thing.


The 10 second per string timed version…. Is actually what shows up in the field on demand- whether someone takes rushed shots or not. People in the field on animals do not shoot as well as they do on the flat range.

That’s a good way to establish more legit numbers to enter for sure.


“Whether someone takes rushed shots or not” though? I would say in the field the unrushed shots are more like that rushed shots at the range. But if you THEN proceed to rush shots in the field, it will be much worse than the rushed shots at the range. They can’t possibly be the same whether you rush them or not.

By “rushed” I’m talking about rushing to create a subpar support. Not rushing to break a fast shot after being setup

I mean I have videos through the scope shooting animals unrushed in the field. I don’t see anything extreme that would cause concern with extreme reticle movement and such.

 

[huntnful]

To be clear, I’m not saying I shoot the same in the field. I’m saying you can take time and use devices to shoot better.

If someone wants to “rush” and drop to a knee and take an unsupported shot at 200 yards in 15 seconds. They could take 25 seconds and use a bipod or front rest and double their hit rates.

The hit rates are subjective to the level of stability they choose to achieve prior to shooting.

 

[Formidilosus]

“Whether someone takes rushed shots or not” though? I would say in the field the unrushed shots are more like that rushed shots at the range. But if you THEN proceed to rush shots in the field, it will be much worse than the rushed shots at the range. They can’t possibly be the same whether you rush them or not.

By “rushed” I’m talking about rushing to create a subpar support. Not rushing to break a fast shot after being setup

No. Support can be whatever you want- the targets above were shot off a pack and rear bag; however bipod, etc is fine if it is used.


What I am saying is that say someone does 20 untimed shots into the 1 MOA circle. Then, when they are timed at 10 seconds per shot (from the same position/rest) that group has rounds out to 2.5 MOA. That same shooter misses 1 MOA targets in the field (especially on animals)- whether timed or not, that even when accounting for wind- they should not have. But when you go back and look at how many shots miss or would have missed a 2.5 MOA target, it is none- or very very few.

In other words the “group” on the 10sec per shot timed portion is a much better indicator of say the 95% probability of that shooter mechanically being able to hit targets.