WEZ hit rates.

[stan_wa]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

 

[Formidilosus]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

You don’t have to do that.

At 600 yards in broken terrain, with an average of 10mph wind speeds:

6mph= the average shooter that actually practices, has a kestrel, but rarely shoots in mountainous terrain.


4mph= “Trained” shooter- such as a recent graduate of a mil sniper school that deals with winds, or from someone that shoots relatively frequently in new environments with wind.

2mph= near world class. Shoot thousands of rounds a year in novel broken terrain in high winds, with focused practice.

 

[huntnful]

Something not discussed with the wind is that the magnitude of error in the wind is also super dependent on how windy it.

Also, something to consider is that for longer shots often the wind is not going to be perfectly constant through the whole flight path. With these calculations, it’s just assuming a constant wind throughout the entire flight.


It really hard to be by 8 mph in a wind call in zero wind and much more easy to be 8 mph off on a wind call in 30 mph storm winds.

I think we can settle the debate about whether the wind input should be 2SD meaning 19/20 times your wind call error is smaller than the input or if it’s 1 Sd .
I don’t have the applied ballistics pro to run the simulations. But maybe someone that does could do the following. And check my logic.

1. Pick a rifle and solution doesn’t really matter which one and run a solution with zero wind at let’s say 800
2 . then run the same solution at 8 mph wind wind input .
3. Measure roughly the width that captures 95% of the shots each the simulation.
4 . Subtract the width of step 1 from step 3. You now have a rough estimate of the effect of wind on horizontal error.

5. Divide that by 2 because the wind is plus or minus . this gives you the 2 Sd wind deflection at your in one direction

6. Calculate the wind deflection on an 8 mph shot with abs ballistic solution Be careful not to include spindrift in this.

7. Divide step 5 by 6
If this number is closer to one, then the Wes wind input is asking for a 2SD input
If this number is closer to two, then the Wes is asking for a 1 Sd wind input

My thinkings is as follows you.
If your 95% case wind deflection (results form step 5). is the same as a 8mph wind deflection (from step 6), then we know the input in the Wes is asking for a 2 SD wind input. if the the 95% case wind deflection is equal to a 16 mph wind deflection then we know the Wes is asking for a one SD input.

That sounds like a job for @solarshooter haha.

I don’t think it’s ASKING you to enter anything. The entries are up to you, and the info you want to see IMO. If you shoot on a flat area that hardly has any wind, a 2 MPH could be perfectly acceptable.

 

[Skerhunter]

Not at all. Same data, but 400 yards

View attachment 852971

This is fun thanks for sharing! I would love to see all the creeds and prcs compared in one post but that sounds like too much work !

You have some data on larger calibers you can compare to the 22 creed (like 300 prc 212eld @ 2950?).

 

[huntnful]

This is fun thanks for sharing! I would love to see all the creeds and prcs compared in one post but that sounds like too much work !

You have some data on larger calibers you can compare to the 22 creed (like 300 prc 212eld @ 2950?).

I wish the calculation took recoil into effect but it doesn’t. But I’ll do a few examples of real cartridges that I own and shoot and share the differences. They aren’t much honestly.

I was checking my 6.5-7 PRC vs. a 300 NMI at 1000 yards and the hit rate was only 5% in favor of the 300 NMI, with 100% more recoil

 

[CTXhunter]

Not at all. Same data, but 400 yards

View attachment 852971

You are a gentleman and a scholar

 

[stan_wa]

You don’t have to do that.

At 600 yards in broken terrain, with an average of 10mph wind speeds:

6mph= the average shooter that actually practices, has a kestrel, but rarely shoots in mountainous terrain.


4mph= “Trained” shooter- such as a recent graduate of a mil sniper school that deals with winds, or from someone that shoots relatively frequently in new environments with wind.

2mph= near world class. Shoot thousands of rounds a year in novel broken terrain in high winds, with focused practice.

Would you say just double it with a 20 mph wind ?
Your guidance here is based on aligning real world hit rate % to a wes wind input that give you hit rate that matches your observations ?

 

[Formidilosus]

Would you say just double it with a 20 mph wind ?
Your guidance here is based on aligning real world hit rate % to a wes wind input that give you hit rate that matches your observations ?

That’s probably close enough to work. Even 10mph winds in broken terrain is really hard to call, 20mph is functionally impossible for almost all.

 

[huntnful]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

 

[TheM1DoesMyTalking]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

View attachment 853265

The 3-5% difference in hit rates between a 0.5 and 1.5 MOA system is good to highlight here because it's not common knowledge among hunters.

How do these hit rate percentages compare with your experience with these rifles at each distance?

 

[huntnful]

The 3-5% difference in hit rates between a 0.5 and 1.5 MOA system is good to highlight here because it's not common knowledge among hunters.

How do these hit rate percentages compare with your experience with these rifles at each distance?

I’ve honestly never tracked first round hit rates close enough to even speak remotely accurately to a 3-5% potential difference. I just know I rarely center punch the middle of the plate at 1000 yards with any rifle, under any variable wind conditions.

Also though, as the target get smaller the hit rates do increase more, percentage wise, as the rifle’s accuracy increases.

 

[Runwilderness]

Here’s a few guns I currently have. No recoil taken into consideration. Just the numbers.

I did 1.5 MOA and .5 MOA to see the difference, or lack there off.

View attachment 853265

Looking at this makes me think I really need to establish my ‘rifle’ accuracy in various positions…with a statistically relevant group size.

I know my wind holds will be the primary factor at long ranges…and I won’t take those shots. But the question for me is now what MOA loss would cause me to now take that 300-400 yard shot…and which position do I first hit that limit (prone = 1.5 moa for my rifle, but seated supported, seated unsupported, kneeling, leaning on a steep hillside with sage jabbing me in the groin…I don’t have those numbers worked out yet)

 

[stan_wa]

what MOA loss would cause me to now take that 300-400 yard shot

I was thinking the same thing,I have done prone with hunting bipod and light weight rear bag vs bench rest several times and found those to be very similar.

I also want to see how those precisions differ with my 6 cm vs my 28 nos . Irl there is some precision loss with recoil, and the really interesting question I wanna prove to my self firsthand is can I realize the benefit of the lower winds drift with more recoil. It’s mostly academic because getting better at reading wind is obviously the powerful Nob to turn.

 

[huntnful]

Yeah these are definitely numbers related to being proned out with a rear rest IMO. And even then, 2 MOA would be a better predictor. I'm just crunching numbers for numbers sake here.

The recoil on my 3 example rifles would be about:

10lb 22 CM no muzzle device - 8ft lbs
12 lb 6.5-7PRC muzzle brake - 10ft lbs
13lb 7-300 NMI muzzle brake - 13ft lbs

Just me looking at numbers and recoil and what not, the 6.5-7 seems pretty sexual on paper. And is easy AF to shoot in real life.

 

[Runwilderness]

I was thinking the same thing,I have done prone with hunting bipod and light weight rear bag vs bench rest several times and found those to be very similar.

I also want to see how those precisions differ with my 6 cm vs my 28 nos . Irl there is some precision loss with recoil, and the really interesting question I wanna prove to my self firsthand is can I realize the benefit of the lower winds drift with more recoil. It’s mostly academic because getting better at reading wind is obviously the powerful Nob to turn.

Playing with Leica AB+ shot probability analysis, my 147 ELDM load (2645 fps with 20SD) goes from 86% on their elk vital target at 400yds when taking a 6mph wind error and the 0.4mil precision (about 1.5moa) 20round group I shot prone post barrel cut/thread and moving to the Rokstok and drops to only 54% if I let my group open up to 1.7mil (about 6moa) due to a positional change.

If my wind calls improved to 2mph, I’d still me at only 63% if my shooting position forced into a 6moa capable shooter.

 

[huntnful]

Here’s a real world, prone field position, with the heaviest recoiling rifle in that lineup. I think it was 470 yards or so.

You can either bring the equipment necessary, and take the time necessary to improve your stability… or not. But it’s a decision. You don’t have to be unstable as hell and shoot an animal in 17 seconds at 500 yards if you decide not to. It will cost you very few animals. It has cost me 0 animals so far. And when it does cost me an animal, no big deal, because it was my decision.