WEZ hit rates.

[huntnful]

This is not my understanding from reading the link posted, using the app myself, and looking at the low/medium/high inputs AB uses as default.

Yeah that’s kind of how I viewed it as well after watching their YouTube video on how to use the app. If I shoot a 30 shot 1” group with an SD of 12fps. I understand the hit rate may not be EXACTLY in line with those numbers and might need some grace. But entering 2” for the group and 24 for the SD just to make sure I only see worst case scenario seems a box excessive as well.

Also understand a 30 shot 1” group in the field braking position 30 times isn’t realistic. Just an example

 

[Lawnboi]

View attachment 852506

Also FYI this is more like 1842fps using the AB CDM.

This is awesome. Something people on here don’t think about when looking at a cartridge. On paper it holds velocity to upset (which is what everyone talks about) but when you factor in more the 223 really falls short out past 300-350 in field conditions. I knew this when I asked, which is why I wanted to see it.

I’m also a 223 koolaid drinker, but I keep my shots sub 350 with it.

 

[solarshooter]

This is not my understanding from reading the link posted, using the app myself, and looking at the low/medium/high inputs AB uses as default.

This table and footnote are what I'm basing my interpretation on:


To me, this seems clear that these inputs are intended to be +/-2SD. I think it is set up this way so that you can simply take the ES of a sample of 20, and consider that your +/- 2SD range. So for wind error, what was your worst error in 20 calls, for group, what is your 20 shot group size, and so on. I think this also addresses this comment:

Yeah that’s kind of how I viewed it as well after watching their YouTube video on how to use the app. If I shoot a 30 shot 1” group with an SD of 12fps. I understand the hit rate may not be EXACTLY in line with those numbers and might need some grace. But entering 2” for the group and 24 for the SD just to make sure I only see worst case scenario seems a box excessive as well.

In this scenario, you would not multiply the group size by 2, but you would multiply the MV SD by 2, since it is by definition 1 standard deviation.

 

[huntnful]

This table and footnote are what I'm basing my interpretation on:
View attachment 852604
View attachment 852603
To me, this seems clear that these inputs are intended to be +/-2SD. I think it is set up this way so that you can simply take the ES of a sample of 20, and consider that your +/- 2SD range. So for wind error, what was your worst error in 20 calls, for group, what is your 20 shot group size, and so on. I think this also addresses this comment:

In this scenario, you would not multiply the group size by 2, but you would multiply the MV SD by 2, since it is by definition 1 standard deviation.

Interesting!

In the video of the AB guy explaining what to enter in the app he clearly states to shoot your gun over a chrono for several shots, and enter the SD number on the chrono into that spot. Not to double it.

 

[solarshooter]

I think you might be right for the MV SD input at least. The table I linked clearly has MV SD there and that matches the presets for those fields in the app. But it still seems like the other inputs should be +/-2SD...

 

[huntnful]

 

[huntnful]

Good watch for anyone with the app. He does a good job explaining most everything

 

[solarshooter]

Thanks for that link. Definitely clear MV field should be 1SD. I do think the other fields are meant to be 2SD.

 

[solarshooter]

Updated assessment of RSS with correct MV SD entry:

Makes a whole 1% of hit difference haha

 

[wyosam]

Very nice! Looks like you’ve spent some time with the app already! It very new to me. But 30 for the SD on your inputs? That would be an insanely terrible SD for any decent ammo?

Internet SD vs actual real world SD is a lot like rifle accuracy on the internet vs actual accuracy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Harvey_NW]

Internet SD vs actual real world SD is a lot like rifle accuracy on the internet vs actual accuracy.

I agree with you 100%, but in this particular case his inputs are based on statistically valid live fire samples. Not sure if that's part of the discrepancy or not.

 

[huntnful]

Internet SD vs actual real world SD is a lot like rifle accuracy on the internet vs actual accuracy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I get what you’re saying. But there’s no human or “rushed field position” element to SD’s and ES’s. If you have a 30 SD average over 30 shots, your ammo is absolutely trash lol.

 

[id_jon]

Anyone having issues with inputs not staying what you set them as? For me it's only temperature, but it keeps reverting to -1 after I hit the check mark.

 

[LongWayAround]

I get what you’re saying. But there’s no human or “rushed field position” element to SD’s and ES’s. If you have a 30 SD average over 30 shots, your ammo is absolutely trash lol.

I would be curious to see what my velocity is over a group that size.

I put a a few rounds over a borrowed chronograph last week. Hornady 143 eld-x was +/- 40fps for five rounds and AAC 75 bthp was about +/- 50fps for five rounds.

 

[huntnful]

I would be curious to see what my velocity is over a group that size.

I put a a few rounds over a borrowed chronograph last week. Hornady 143 eld-x was +/- 40fps for five rounds and AAC 75 bthp was about +/- 50fps for five rounds.

Oh there can certainly be some factory ammo with 30fps SD’s. I’m sure my Fiocchi .223 ammo is somewhere around there.

 

[ShootOkHuntWorse]

Not to steal your thread here but anyone figure out how to mix the Units? I need moa elevation but mil windage. Effing dumb I know but mil/moa scopes is what I got for now. And I hold for wind not dial.

 

[huntnful]

How bout same inputs you have but move distance to 600 yds, precision to 1.5 MOA and a 147 ELDm @ 2700 FPS.

 

[Megalodon]

Thanks for that link. Definitely clear MV field should be 1SD. I do think the other fields are meant to be 2SD.

I really have no idea, I have read the same stuff you have though. Looking at the outputs based on the inputs I think my best guess is that the inputs should be 1 SD of actual, and then the calculator itself takes the 95% interval (2 SD) into account.

The probabilities you're getting just seem much less than reasonable. Also like I said, look at what they populate with their pre-filled high/med/low confidence.

 

[solarshooter]

I really have no idea, I have read the same stuff you have though. Looking at the outputs based on the inputs I think my best guess is that the inputs should be 1 SD of actual, and then the calculator itself takes the 95% interval (2 SD) into account.

The probabilities you're getting just seem much less than reasonable. Also like I said, look at what they populate with their pre-filled high/med/low confidence.

I think the probabilities are much less than you think! To me, these inputs do make sense as "effective worst case", which can reasonably equate to +/-2SD. Most people have no idea what a standard deviation is, nor do they track enough data or log it such that they could calculate it. To be clear, you could input more "optimistic" numbers, but the more you do that, the less accurate this hit rate calculator will be. It is specifically running 100 simulations of shots, therefore it needs high confidence inputs in order for the results of 100 draws on the same variable to be accurate. If you give it a 5 shot group size for rifle precision, and then take 100 draws on that number, you shouldn't expect to actually see that level of accuracy in the field. MV SD is an exception here because basically all chronographs will output that for you. If they didn't, I think "ES over a 20 shot string" would be a reasonable analog, which is what all the other inputs are (in my understanding of this).

 

[solarshooter]

View attachment 852829
View attachment 852830

What direction is the wind for this sim?