Warm winter mule deer population predictions?

[vishnevian]

We’ve been having some pretty unusually warm winter here in WA state.

Anyone think this will positively impact the deer population during the 2026 October season? Higher survival rates through the winter? Better quality more well fed deer? Am I thinking about this correctly?

 

[Muleyczy]

It’s definitely better than a winter like 22-23. Somewhere in between I think is ideal, but I’d take warm over being buried.

 

[robby denning]

They’re doing great. If we get good moisture through the spring, it could be a great year. Just don’t wanna slip into more drought now. But this winter is making up for what we lost in 22/23. It’s just a big cycle with deer. But hoping we can get back more to normal than these big swings.

I talked to a biologist last week who brought up an interesting find. They captured a fawn in December that only weighed 51 pounds in an area that they usually weigh 70 to 90 pounds. He had to think it through on why such a light fawn on such a good year, and then he realized, on a normal year that fawn would’ve been dead.

 

[BigAntlerGetter]

Warm winters can cause just as much damages and bad winters.

Sure it makes it easier for them to survive the winter but the other issue is lack of forage in the spring summer and fall. Last summer was bad in my area lack of forage hand antler growth seem a bit stunted from bucks were been watching. Then seen some deer herds go into winter skinnier than normal, many of our large bucks didn’t seem to come out the rut as healthy as usual And have had issues putting weight back on.

Let’s hope for some weather and rain this summer


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[Customweld]

As long as we get decent spring rain, I think we'll be ok. I've been out on the winter ground quite a bit this year and the animals look great. Normally, I see way more elk on the winter range, but they must be up higher. That's great for muleys. If it's dry next year, there may be some issues. One thing not talked about too much is the lack of cold weather and the survival of moose winter ticks.
An interesting anecdote, an orchard owner in Emmett was saying, by his experience we are 30 days ahead of where we should be in spring orchard development .

 

[BigAntlerGetter]

As long as we get decent spring rain, I think we'll be ok. I've been out on the winter ground quite a bit this year and the animals look great. Normally, I see way more elk on the winter range, but they must be up higher. That's great for muleys. If it's dry next year, there may be some issues. One thing not talked about too much is the lack of cold weather and the survival of moose winter ticks.
An interesting anecdote, an orchard owner in Emmett was saying, by his experience we are 30 days ahead of where we should be in spring orchard development .

The orchard development is something that can really break a mild winter, if everything starts budding early and we have one decent freeze it won’t be good.

Here in CO of we lose the acorns, service berry and choke cherries we will
Have a very bad bear year. 2 summers ago when all the bears were down low near towns we lost a ton of fawns and calves early and it kept the elk and deer pushed up the mountain more.

I can’t remember how many bear killed fawns and calves I found early summer 2024, but I seen it in our fall herds with the lack of weanlings, which puts a huge damper on recruitment numbers and will affect them for several years beyond.


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[Customweld]

The orchard development is something that can really break a mild winter, if everything starts budding early and we have one decent freeze it won’t be good.

Agreed, It's almost a guarantee that we have a frost in late March/early April. Peaches and Cherries are usually hit the hardest where I'm at.

 

[robby denning]

As long as we get decent spring rain, I think we'll be ok. I've been out on the winter ground quite a bit this year and the animals look great. Normally, I see way more elk on the winter range, but they must be up higher. That's great for muleys. If it's dry next year, there may be some issues. One thing not talked about too much is the lack of cold weather and the survival of moose winter ticks.
An interesting anecdote, an orchard owner in Emmett was saying, by his experience we are 30 days ahead of where we should be in spring orchard development .

yes on the ticks/parasites. cold weather has it's upsides.

I saw my first Robin this morning. I checked my images and it was March 5th last year for my first.

 

[MtnMuley]

I think the super easy winter and lack of snow in most areas did our muleys wonders. Food sources were abundant at all elevations and the deer stayed pretty spread out in every area I've checked. The low valleys didn't have nearly the deer as a typical winter which also helped them survive this predator cesspool issue we have when they group lower. We've had a fairly wet overall winter even with the lack of snow and the moisture went in the ground. However, I am curious to how the new grasses will prevail with nearly all older grasses still standing with the lack of a snowpack. I've never seen a year here where the majority of grasses weren't laid down. Overall, with the struggling deer numbers due to predation, fire scarred winter ranges, and mismanagement, I think this was the best possible winter we could have had to benefit their populations.