Turkey population

[AMonroe]

Here in Oklahoma the turkey population has declined leading to changes in bag numbers and hunt dates. This is all fine but what bothers me is no explanation in why the numbers are declining. I hunt almost year around and what I noticed is the boom in the predator population. You literally will see bobcats, raccoons and coyotes in daylight hours. Last Turkey season I passed on a mature Tom because he had one of his main tail feathers missing. Definitely looked like something grabbed him. Another confusing thing is I’ve read multiple articles saying controlling predators is not the answer. Last year I shot so many hogs I literally was burned out. Funny thing is all of a sudden hens and mature toms returned to the small parcel of public land that I hunt. The year prior their was no turkeys. Has anyone have had any similar experiences with predator effects on turkeys??


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[MJB]

Don't forget about the raptors

 

[dtrkyman]

So many things putting a hurt on turkeys currently. Definite issue with the amount of predators, egg robbers are probably the worst!

Season structures seem to be an issue, early harvest of dominant toms throw off the breeding cycle, look into Michael Chamberlain's studies about it. It is the only bird we harvest during breeding!

Habitat issues are a real problem, I talked with a biologist in western OK. last year and the lack of roost trees has become a prominent issue, loss of cottonwoods has been impactful, weird thing is I have heard them talk about a cottonwood grove dying off and the birds do not relocate to another grove, crazy!

I hunt a bunch in the Midwest and managed a bunch of hunting ground there, bush honeysuckle is a major issue, it's an invasive and is taking over many wood lots, basically the only thing left in that timber are mature trees and honeysuckle, no good nesting or brooding cover!

Not a social media guy other than forums but look up wildturkeydoc on twitter.

Meateater also had a podcast with him that was excellent as well as the hunting public has a youtube video.

 

[deerhunt1988]

Season structures seem to be an issue, early harvest of dominant toms throw off the breeding cycle, look into Michael Chamberlain's studies about it. It is the only bird we harvest during breeding!

*may be an issue. This has not been proven and is still just a theory.

But a lot of turkey hunting opportunity is being removed, especially for hunters in the southeast (in particular public land hunters), based on this theory. Let's hope it helps, but its pretty eye opening seeing some of the significant changes that aren't based on solid evidence yet. If we were throwing birds off on breeding, you'd think several measurable demographics would change too, such as nesting dates being pushed back , the % of hens attempting a nest would decrease, etc. but these measurements haven't really changed. There is bakoodles of data showing this. What has changed is recruitment AFTER that nest is laid!

States like MO who have their season opening later compared to other states in the southeast/midwest (about the time hens start laying and a few start incubating) are seeing the same decrease just like everywhere else. Arkansas implemented similar season changes a decade ago and still doesn't have much to show for it.

There is a ton of great turkey research going on right now, as much as ever. Let's hope some answers are found soon, although i'm afraid there will be nothing groundbreaking. We simply need the eggs laid to turn into poults and for those poults to survive!

 

[Scottf270]

I started trapping a bit. It was eye opening. Last year 15 coons , 9 possums on around 200 acres.

This year 11 coons, 11 possums, 2 coyotes, 1 red fox, 1 bobcat on 94 acres. Unbelievable.........

 

[dtrkyman]

Arkansas changes their regs more frequently than their underwear, I think they waited too long to respond to the problem.

Back in the early 2000s central Illinois Racoons had gotten distemper, wiped em out! Turkeys exploded, by 2010 coons were back with a vengeance and the turkeys started to plummet, similar timing with the bush honeysuckle invasion.

Missouri has had really poor recruitment, Poult's per hen average is poor to say the least.

"The Missouri Department of Conservation (MDC) has conducted a wild turkey brood survey annually since 1959. During the survey, MDC staff and citizen volunteers record turkey observations during June, July, and August to determine the success of the hatch. Data are collected at the county level and reported statewide and by Turkey Productivity Region, which are counties grouped by similar land cover composition (Figure 1). Each year, hundreds of staff and thousands of citizens participate in the survey, and we are grateful for their contribution. I would also like to thank those staff involved with distributing survey cards and entering the thousands of turkey observations obtained during the survey. The turkey brood survey provides important information for the Conservation Department’s Wild Turkey Management Program, and the large dataset we have obtained since the survey was initiated would not have been possible without the dedication of staff and our citizen volunteers. In 2021, MDC staff and citizen volunteers recorded observations of over 75,000 turkeys during the three-month survey. The 2021 statewide Poult-to-hen ratio (PHR) was 1.0, which was the same as the 2020 PHR and 11% greater than the previous five-year average (Figure 1, Figure 2, Table 1). However, this year’s PHR was 17% lower than the 10-year average and 23% lower than the 20-year average (Table 1). Regional PHRs in 2021 ranged from 0.7 in the West Prairie Region to 2.4 in the Mississippi Lowlands Region (Table 1). Compared to the five-year averages, production in 2021 was greater in the Lindley Breaks, Mississippi Lowlands, Northwest, Ozark Border, Ozarks East, Ozarks West, and Union Breaks Regions but lower in the 2 Northeast Region (Table 1). Production in the West Prairie Region was equal to the five-year average for that region (Table 1)."

Across the country I would say habitat and predators are the main issues! Out west the drought has likely caused problems.

Seems to be death by a thousand cuts!

I have seen potential evidence of the early harvest theory, I had two who doubled from a large flock, I was out scouting two days later and that bunch which still had 2 toms and a bunch of jakes in it were fighting like I have never seen, sorting things out after the two were taken. I had watched that flock for a week and saw nothing of that type behavior.

 

[AMonroe]

Wow! Thanks for all the insight! I guess I’ll still try and do my part. I’ve taken down a few nest predators and this boar.

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[deerhunt1988]

Back in the early 2000s central Illinois Racoons had gotten distemper, wiped em out! Turkeys exploded, by 2010 coons were back with a vengeance and the turkeys started to plummet, similar timing with the bush honeysuckle invasion.


Across the country I would say habitat and predators are the main issues! Out west the drought has likely caused problems.

Seems to be death by a thousand cuts!

I have seen potential evidence of the early harvest theory, I had two who doubled from a large flock, I was out scouting two days later and that bunch which still had 2 toms and a bunch of jakes in it were fighting like I have never seen, sorting things out after the two were taken. I had watched that flock for a week and saw nothing of that type behavior.

Agreed that habitat and predators are the main culprits, as well as climate/weather patterns. We've had some abnormally wet springs in parts of the eastern U.S. in the past decade that have really hurt too. Whether it be flooded grounds in floodplains (that can virtually eliminate a hatch in severe cases, like some of the events we've seen inside the MS River levee), or cold and wet weather during nesting/hatching times (which is speculated to lead to poorer reproduction). I've saw May precipitation data overlaid with recruitment data, and there is often a direct correlation with increased precipitation and decreased reproduction. Some of the best hatches I've seen have came during drier spring/early summer months. Then like you mentioned, at the opposite end of the spectrum, we have the droughts out west that can hammer a hatch. Several years back when parts of Texas were in severe drought, turkey numbers really plummeted in areas hit the hardest. It can really be boom or best there. I've witnessed Rios in western Oklahoma roosting in those dead cottonwoods. Mother nature can deal some tough hands!

In my state we had a distemper outbreak a couple years back and the region that had some of the most distemper reports did have one of its best hatches in over a decade.

No doubt that once the dominant bird is removed from the flock, some fighting may occur to reestablish the pecking order. I've witnessed a tom with a flock of hens being killed early season and those hens not having a gobbler with them for a couple of days after. But then again, I've seen the flock gobbler removed and another take his place the very next day. If there is a situation where we are killing them too early and its negatively affecting reproduction, IMO, it is likely to be in very low population/density areas. I believe it would be the exception, not the standard. With the explosion of growth in turkey hunter numbers, technology advancements (cell cams, strutter decoys), change in tactics (fanning), WAY WAY more "dominant" gobblers die earlier now days than ever before.

 

[Stefan]

I used to have a bunch of turkeys in my pasture but with the predator population exploding and a limited ability to reduce said population because of land owners it will only get worse. Also doing my part, him and his buddy were going after my ducks. No more

 

[bradr3367]

I agree with the OP. I think that predators take a major toll on the turkey population. Raptors as well. I've always said that everyone who hunts upland birds and turkeys should be allowed a limited quota or 5 hawks per year.

 

[dtrkyman]

No denying predators have an impact, but I believe quality habitat is the key.

 

[AMonroe]

I believe predation and habitat do go hand in hand. I have not noticed any big changes in habitat in this specific location. There is a refuge about 300 yards away from this location, and it has good turkey habitat, with cover, water and roosting areas. This morning after dispatching another nest predator, I was rewarded by watching two Jakes and a Tom. Fly across the road from the direction of the refuge, cross the field right where I took the hog. Then literally entered the entrance to the wood line the hog came out of. I can’t say for sure why this happened but it definitely put a smile to my face. I appreciate the knowledge shared by other hunters here and will start looking at raptors. Just need to check our regulations here. In retrospect, my respect for turkeys is on a level even above Whitetails.


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[Fordguy]

Here in Oklahoma the turkey population has declined leading to changes in bag numbers and hunt dates. This is all fine but what bothers me is no explanation in why the numbers are declining. I hunt almost year around and what I noticed is the boom in the predator population. You literally will see bobcats, raccoons and coyotes in daylight hours. Last Turkey season I passed on a mature Tom because he had one of his main tail feathers missing. Definitely looked like something grabbed him. Another confusing thing is I’ve read multiple articles saying controlling predators is not the answer. Last year I shot so many hogs I literally was burned out. Funny thing is all of a sudden hens and mature toms returned to the small parcel of public land that I hunt. The year prior their was no turkeys. Has anyone have had any similar experiences with predator effects on turkeys??


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The Oklahoma properties that I hunt have so many coons, coyotes and bobcats that turkeys have almost no chance. I trap coons, but no matter how many I trap there are always more. I've had live traps with 4 coons stuffed into a single trap, not at all uncommon to find 2 in a cage style live trap. When I put out cameras I've had nights where I have pics of a dozen coyotes. Bobcats I see semi regularly, and sometimes in daylight. Last year I saw a few turkeys, but no poults survived that I saw.

 

[pk_]

I can tell you we went thru this down here in FL starting about 12-15 years ago. We are finally coming out the other side and populations are rebounding about as fast as they disappeared. I can’t put my finger on what changed. But I know we were losing nests because I quit seeing hens with poults and I quit seeing groups of jakes. I would say at its worst we had 10-20% of the population we once had, and right now we are probably up to 50-60% and they just started to noticeably rebound in the last 3 years…

Habitat is the same. Burn schedules are the same. There has been a huge reduction in the hog populations thru expanded hunting opportunities but man, when turkey populations were at their peak(in my lifetime) the woods were also full of hogs.

I really can’t say what to do other than hammer the predators and nest raiders (if legal) just before nesting season and try to have good nesting habitat(or focus your efforts where it exists).

It never gets talked about(not that I hear) but, I really think states should consider taking hens out of the fall season.

 

[deerhunt1988]

I can tell you we went thru this down here in FL starting about 12-15 years ago. We are finally coming out the other side and populations are rebounding about as fast as they disappeared. I can’t put my finger on what changed. But I know we were losing nests because I quit seeing hens with poults and I quit seeing groups of jakes. I would say at its worst we had 10-20% of the population we once had, and right now we are probably up to 50-60% and they just started to noticeably rebound in the last 3 years…

Habitat is the same. Burn schedules are the same. There has been a huge reduction in the hog populations thru expanded hunting opportunities but man, when turkey populations were at their peak(in my lifetime) the woods were also full of hogs.

I really can’t say what to do other than hammer the predators and nest raiders (if legal) just before nesting season and try to have good nesting habitat(or focus your efforts where it exists).

It never gets talked about(not that I hear) but, I really think states should consider taking hens out of the fall season.

What a lot of people forget, or don't even realize, is that turkey populations are naturally cyclical. There have always been peaks and valleys after the initial reintroduction explosion. That being said, the peaks have been shorter and valleys deeper the past decade in many regions. Hopefully we start to see more situations like the one you mentioned, where the turkeys make a nice rebound. It may take a long stretch of cooperation from Mother Nature (several dry springs/early summers) to get them back on course. When you can get 2-3 good consecutive hatches, populations can rebound in a hurry. But you can look at the brood data from a lot of the struggling regions and see that they aren't getting those consecutive years of good hatches. May have one good hatch, then one poor one. Two decent ones, then two poor ones, etc. Its just hard to turn a population around when that is the case.