I am on the husky end of the sizing. Wear a xxl. I find it a trim fit. If I were going to wear layers underneath, I would size up.
I am about the same size and I run the xl in the Traverse cold weather hoody. You should be able to get your core layers under neither and still run the hoody without it being to tight. Make sure you get something with wind stop as well for those early morning cold breezes.