Toyota Deals

[treillw]

Probably not going to find anything, but anyone know a trick to get a good deal on a Toyota?

Looking at the 2023 xle hybrid Rav 4.

Really a bad time to be buying a car!

Thanks!

 

[sram9102]

Sorry I can't be of help but I'm following along. Looking for a Tacoma Q1 23.

 

[Wellsdw]

just bought a new 4runner but looked at multiple models including ravs for the wife. I know the general manager of a particular dealership and he offered me 1250 of msrp on top of rebates off anything new. I took similar offers to other dealers out of curiosity and they basically laughed so I felt like that was as
Good as I was going to get. You CD a save money by not getting add ons also a purchasing the. Later off fb

 

[Sapcut]

Getting a good deal on a Toyota is to not buy a new one. Getting a good deal on a new Toyota is rather oxymoronish.

 

[Gutshotem]

How patient can you be?


This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.

I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.

Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):
Background:

Over the past 2 years, many people took out exorbitant loans on cars.

Car values were inflated (and frankly, still are to some extent).

But many people simply had no choice and bought an overpriced a car.

Well...
Car valuations are now plummeting.

Some cars have declined in value as much as 30% y/y.

And these same people that took out these big loans are now "underwater".

Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth.

And the banks are well-aware of this...
But there is no easy solution.

You can't just put the genie back in the bottle.

This brings me to what happened this morning:
Every Friday I conduct a team meeting to recap our week.

This morning, one of our General Managers opened up DealerTrack — a portal that dealers use to communicate with auto lenders — and highlighted something very concerning:
9 of our lending partners have started WAIVING "open auto stipulations" for consumers.

Wait, wtf does that even mean?

Let me explain using a simple, hypothetical scenario:

1) Consumer takes out an auto loan in 2020/2021 on an overvalued car

2) 2022 comes around and that overvalued car is now rapidly declining in value

3) With the car declining in value, consumer now owes more on the car than it is worth

4) Consumer no longer wants the car. Maybe they outgrew it. Or maybe it keeps breaking. So consumer wants to trade it in.

5) But dealer can't trade the car in because the consumer owes WAY too much on it.

So dealer asks consumer for lots of money down to cover the difference.

6) But of course, the consumer doesn't have $1,000s to cover the difference between what they owe on the car and what it's worth.

And here comes the perfect storm...

7) Dealer can't sell consumer a car,

Consumer can't buy a car,

And, you guessed it, lender can't finance a car!

Everybody loses! Oh no

So what happens next?

8) Lender knows that most consumers are stuck in this situation, and does the following:

WAIVES THE OPEN AUTO STIPULATION.

Meaning, the lender lets the consumer buy the car KNOWING that they already have an open auto loan with another bank!

Why the f*ck would they do this?
Surely the lender knows that consumers that take out a 2nd auto loan are MUCH riskier and have a MUCH high risk of default? Right?

RIGHT?

Yes, but the lender does it because they know that the consumer will default on the other car !!!!

Dog eat dog style.

Let me be clear:
This is NOT normal.

But it's the only way lenders can finance cars and dealers can put cars on the road.

And the implications of this will be tons of repossessions.
I've been a doubter, but after what I saw this morning, I'm now FULLY convinced that a wave of car repossessions will hit in early/mid 2023.

If lenders are willing to backstab each other in order to put more loans on the road, we're in trouble.

This will not end pretty.

 

[Fatcamp]

I think it's a bad time to buy a heavy truck.

I also think it's a great time to buy a car(Rav4).

Two completely different markets.

 

[Ucsdryder]

Wait if you can

 

[Billy Goat]

How patient can you be?

View attachment 489552
This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.

I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.

Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):
Background:

Over the past 2 years, many people took out exorbitant loans on cars.

Car values were inflated (and frankly, still are to some extent).

But many people simply had no choice and bought an overpriced a car.

Well...
Car valuations are now plummeting.

Some cars have declined in value as much as 30% y/y.

And these same people that took out these big loans are now "underwater".

Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth.

And the banks are well-aware of this...
But there is no easy solution.

You can't just put the genie back in the bottle.

This brings me to what happened this morning:
Every Friday I conduct a team meeting to recap our week.

This morning, one of our General Managers opened up DealerTrack — a portal that dealers use to communicate with auto lenders — and highlighted something very concerning:
9 of our lending partners have started WAIVING "open auto stipulations" for consumers.

Wait, wtf does that even mean?

Let me explain using a simple, hypothetical scenario:

1) Consumer takes out an auto loan in 2020/2021 on an overvalued car

2) 2022 comes around and that overvalued car is now rapidly declining in value

3) With the car declining in value, consumer now owes more on the car than it is worth

4) Consumer no longer wants the car. Maybe they outgrew it. Or maybe it keeps breaking. So consumer wants to trade it in.

5) But dealer can't trade the car in because the consumer owes WAY too much on it.

So dealer asks consumer for lots of money down to cover the difference.

6) But of course, the consumer doesn't have $1,000s to cover the difference between what they owe on the car and what it's worth.

And here comes the perfect storm...

7) Dealer can't sell consumer a car,

Consumer can't buy a car,

And, you guessed it, lender can't finance a car!

Everybody loses! Oh no

So what happens next?

8) Lender knows that most consumers are stuck in this situation, and does the following:

WAIVES THE OPEN AUTO STIPULATION.

Meaning, the lender lets the consumer buy the car KNOWING that they already have an open auto loan with another bank!

Why the f*ck would they do this?
Surely the lender knows that consumers that take out a 2nd auto loan are MUCH riskier and have a MUCH high risk of default? Right?

RIGHT?

Yes, but the lender does it because they know that the consumer will default on the other car !!!!

Dog eat dog style.

Let me be clear:
This is NOT normal.

But it's the only way lenders can finance cars and dealers can put cars on the road.

And the implications of this will be tons of repossessions.
I've been a doubter, but after what I saw this morning, I'm now FULLY convinced that a wave of car repossessions will hit in early/mid 2023.

If lenders are willing to backstab each other in order to put more loans on the road, we're in trouble.

This will not end pretty.


View attachment 489553

I have felt like something like this has been coming. It's almost a repeat of the housing market from '08 on.


You end up owing more than it's worth, so walk away from it.
People do it all the time, it's not going to take a very big percentage of loan holders to cause a huge ripple.

 

[Desk Jockey]

Not sure it will work in Montana but back east, it’s possible to strike up conversations with a few dealers with driving distance. They are more willing to discount than you might think. Credit costs have really slowed down the auto market. I do agree that holding off could be the smart move. If the economy tanks, prices will continue to dip.

 

[MattB]

How patient can you be?

View attachment 489552
This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.

I'm now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.

Here's what I discovered (and what no one knows):
Background:

Over the past 2 years, many people took out exorbitant loans on cars.

Car values were inflated (and frankly, still are to some extent).

But many people simply had no choice and bought an overpriced a car.

Well...
Car valuations are now plummeting.

Some cars have declined in value as much as 30% y/y.

And these same people that took out these big loans are now "underwater".

Basically, they owe banks more on these cars than they are worth.

And the banks are well-aware of this...
But there is no easy solution.

You can't just put the genie back in the bottle.

This brings me to what happened this morning:
Every Friday I conduct a team meeting to recap our week.

This morning, one of our General Managers opened up DealerTrack — a portal that dealers use to communicate with auto lenders — and highlighted something very concerning:
9 of our lending partners have started WAIVING "open auto stipulations" for consumers.

Wait, wtf does that even mean?

Let me explain using a simple, hypothetical scenario:

1) Consumer takes out an auto loan in 2020/2021 on an overvalued car

2) 2022 comes around and that overvalued car is now rapidly declining in value

3) With the car declining in value, consumer now owes more on the car than it is worth

4) Consumer no longer wants the car. Maybe they outgrew it. Or maybe it keeps breaking. So consumer wants to trade it in.

5) But dealer can't trade the car in because the consumer owes WAY too much on it.

So dealer asks consumer for lots of money down to cover the difference.

6) But of course, the consumer doesn't have $1,000s to cover the difference between what they owe on the car and what it's worth.

And here comes the perfect storm...

7) Dealer can't sell consumer a car,

Consumer can't buy a car,

And, you guessed it, lender can't finance a car!

Everybody loses! Oh no

So what happens next?

8) Lender knows that most consumers are stuck in this situation, and does the following:

WAIVES THE OPEN AUTO STIPULATION.

Meaning, the lender lets the consumer buy the car KNOWING that they already have an open auto loan with another bank!

Why the f*ck would they do this?
Surely the lender knows that consumers that take out a 2nd auto loan are MUCH riskier and have a MUCH high risk of default? Right?

RIGHT?

Yes, but the lender does it because they know that the consumer will default on the other car !!!!

Dog eat dog style.

Let me be clear:
This is NOT normal.

But it's the only way lenders can finance cars and dealers can put cars on the road.

And the implications of this will be tons of repossessions.
I've been a doubter, but after what I saw this morning, I'm now FULLY convinced that a wave of car repossessions will hit in early/mid 2023.

If lenders are willing to backstab each other in order to put more loans on the road, we're in trouble.

This will not end pretty.


View attachment 489553

I doubt that happens to any meaningful degree. While it happened with houses in the ‘08 recession, I don’t think these situations have nearly the parallels people are thinking they do.
1) Virtually every car loan ends up with negative equity as they are generally 100% financed and vehicles depreciate a significant amount the day they are driven off the lot. Vehicles are also a depreciating asset. Not so with houses.
2) Most people aren’t savvy enough to even understand the negative equity aspect, as most don’t focus beyond the monthly payment amount.
3) There is no good economical alternative to owning a car like there is with renting a house.

Time will tell, but this sort of this strikes me more as hot take created by self-proclaimed internet financial guru to garner clicks.

 

[dtrkyman]

Some dealers did not jack up pricing like others during the peak, wife bought a new Lexus during the height of all the car BS, got a 1500 dollar rebate from lexus off the sticker.

Paid cash so no loan BS issues.

Local Jeep dealer at the time had a 5k market value hike on every vehicle on the lot, 35 grand or 85 grand the price gouge was the same!

 

[Scottf270]

Anyone could see this whole economic situation is not gonna end well. Same stupid pattern of low rates for too long, too much credit to those with little or no ability to ever pay it back, etc. Everyone drunk on the Federal Reserve punch bowl.

Even Trump wanted rates to stay too low. Then add in COVID stimulus and supply chain shutdowns, paying people to sit on their ass, etc. This one's gonna hurt and I really hope it does. Many folks need to feel some real pain for stupid actions.

 

[Mosby]

I looked over.a multi state region for my wife's car. Large difference in pricing, mark ups and trade in values between dealers, manufacturers and markets. You have to be an aggressive buyer in todays market if you want to save any money or not get screwed.

 

[Coveyleader]

I have a 2021 with 10k miles on it, TRD off-road, TRD Rims with KDSS I’ll sell for 50k.never been off the pavement once woman driver mint!

 

[Sapcut]

This new car borrowing, buying, lending, upsidedowning and repeat is just hilarious. It's disturbing and sad how many humans MUST buy a new vehicle rather than get caught dead in a quality used one resulting in the financial dumpster fire mentioned above.

 

[RS3579]

Buying a certified used Toyota gets you a better warranty 60,000 vs 100,000 power train. Get a low mileage 2022 and you can have most of the 36,000 mile warranty left with the added power train. 5 year vs 7 year also on power train. I opted not to get the extended warranty on the 36,000. It’s a Toyota you’ll probably never use warranty before the 100,000 7 year warranty runs out. Good luck in your search.

 

[Ucsdryder]

Buying a certified used Toyota gets you a better warranty 60,000 vs 100,000 power train. Get a low mileage 2022 and you can have most of the 36,000 mile warranty left with the added power train. 5 year vs 7 year also on power train. I opted not to get the extended warranty on the 36,000. It’s a Toyota you’ll probably never use warranty before the 100,000 7 year warranty runs out. Good luck in your search.

Be careful on a 2022 low mileage. Good chance you’ll be paying OVER msrp and kbb/nada will justify the price. The only way to know is to pull the msrp.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

In NW OregonSW Washington it looks like most of the dealers have the Rav4s at or right below MSRP online. My father-in-law was looking to buy one a week ago, so I just went through looking at them..

Check out CarGurus.com

You can filter results for models, options, colors ect. You can set the search radius from you very close, or nation wide.

You can then sort from lowest price to highest price.

In my region pretty much every Toyota dealer has all thier inventory listed on that website.

Pretty easy to find the best listed price on their for exactly what you want to buy.

 

[PNW bow hunter]

Probably not going to find anything, but anyone know a trick to get a good deal on a Toyota?

Looking at the 2023 xle hybrid Rav 4.

Really a bad time to be buying a car!

Thanks!

Your timing actually probably isn’t that bad.
6-8 months ago lots of dealers would have had to order a rav4 for you.
Many of them wouldn’t order you one unless you had a trade in, and they got it cheap. You may of had to wait a while for your new vehicle, trade your vehicle in under value, and pay over MSRP.

Supply/ demand things have balanced out significantly at the moment I think.

 

[RS3579]

Be careful on a 2022 low mileage. Good chance you’ll be paying OVER msrp and kbb/nada will justify the price. The only way to know is to pull the msrp.

Yeah. I saw this issue when I was looking at the new vs certified. It’s sometimes not worth the extra mileage warranty with the certified.