The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Beendare]

Anybody investing in SANA? I'm new to this and thinking about buying. I'm t1 diabetic, so follow this sort of thing and I believe they have a cure. They're having some luck with cancers also.

I used to invest in these small biotech stocks- no more and here's why- SANA is a classic example.

Sure SANA has a promising drug...and the NEJM thinks so too....but this before there is any real testing. Do you know how long out will take to bring this drug to market? They do not even have a phase one trial yet. Probably a decade. A very high percentage of these drugs never make it past phase one trials.

They burned through $47M in a short period and will most likely have to go to the markets and raise money- probably multiple times which dilutes the existing stock- a lot.

Who knows, this could be a monster- just like it's possible you could have a winning lotto ticket in your pocket.

BUT if it doesn't work out, you will lose just about all of your money- a pretty big hole to climb out of. You will have to make 100% on something else just to break even and those aren't easy to find. The rabbit hole of continuing to look for these big score type penny stocks typically gets you very little after a decade of trying.

For every guy that chimes in, "I made a killing" there are 100 more that won't tell you they had their cases handed to them in these penny stocks.

Now if you bought VOO and QTEC (or VGT), which puts you in 1,000 of the top companies, the historical return is about 20% or more.(combining VOO with a tech ETF). Your $10,000 ten years ago would be $40,000 plus now. 20 years ago and it is $200,000. Thats not F U Money but dollar cost averaging into solid stuff for decades gets you millions.

Sorry to throw cold water on your idea....

 

[MountainTracker]

You guys smell that??? Someone cooked the numbers, the inflation numbers….haha


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[gabenzeke]

I used to invest in these small biotech stocks- no more and here's why- SANA is a classic example.

Sure SANA has a promising drug...and the NEJM thinks so too....but this before there is any real testing. Do you know how long out will take to bring this drug to market? They do not even have a phase one trial yet. Probably a decade. A very high percentage of these drugs never make it past phase one trials.

They burned through $47M in a short period and will most likely have to go to the markets and raise money- probably multiple times which dilutes the existing stock- a lot.

Who knows, this could be a monster- just like it's possible you could have a winning lotto ticket in your pocket.

BUT if it doesn't work out, you will lose just about all of your money- a pretty big hole to climb out of. You will have to make 100% on something else just to break even and those aren't easy to find. The rabbit hole of continuing to look for these big score type penny stocks typically gets you very little after a decade of trying.

For every guy that chimes in, "I made a killing" there are 100 more that won't tell you they had their cases handed to them in these penny stocks.

Now if you bought VOO and QTEC (or VGT), which puts you in 1,000 of the top companies, the historical return is about 20% or more.(combining VOO with a tech ETF). Your $10,000 ten years ago would be $40,000 plus now. 20 years ago and it is $200,000. Thats not F U Money but dollar cost averaging into solid stuff for decades gets you millions.

Sorry to throw cold water on your idea....

No, I get it and I do actually know give or take how long and how expensive it is to bring something to market. However, I think it's at least possible they get bought. I'm not planning to sink tons of money in it, but if I bought in now and planned to either lose it all or sell if or when it gets to, say, 12, is that a crazy idea? I do think even if it never gets to market they should be able to get through phase two and I can't see why the results would change given the technology they're using.Thanks for the response and information

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[Beendare]

if I bought in now and planned to either lose it all or sell if or when it gets to, say, 12, is that a crazy idea?

Look, I am just relaying to you what decades of investing in the markets by myself and buddies has taught me. I'm just saying, it's important NOT to lose money in investing and to keep building as the losers really set you back. Plus inflation kills the average person over time.

The way to combat that is to own physical assets like Real Estate (though the wrong segment can kill you there too) and Stocks of successful growing companies that keep you ahead of inflation. 20% might not sound like much to a guy with $5,000, but when its $500,000.....thats $100,000 profit in a year.

It's called the power of compounding and it's too bad we weren't taught this in high school....that and the negatives of inflation.

These small biotechs have been a bust for everyone I know with only a couple working out.

I could be wrong and don't know if SANA is going to be a huge winner. Think about how hard it is for a tiny company versus a Merck, Novo, Lilly that can spend $47m on a drug candidate like its throw away money.

There is a limit to the amount of research we can do relative to the big pro outfits. There are signs that these small companies will be winners like: Does one of the big drug companies own warrants on their stock? Are there multiple big investment companies large holders? Did they partner with a big drug company on their upcoming phase 1 trial?

Those are the kinds of things we need to know on these types of investments...otherwise we are throwing darts. Even then, the big companies splash money around to these small companies like bets on a roulette table and it's no guarantee they will succeed.

 

[MuleyFever]

Time in beats timing. Where would you put $10k right now.