The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

I did some back testing on portfolio visualizer going to put 90% of my portfolio with 50% VGT and 50% SCHD. That combination averages an annual return of 19.3%. 100% VOO averages 15.4% and 1/3 each VOO, SCHD and
VGT averages 18%. I am going to set aside 10% for indivual stocks to "play with" but for the most part i'm doing more harm than good trying to chase rips in the market.
 
I did some back testing on portfolio visualizer going to put 90% of my portfolio with 50% VGT and 50% SCHD. That combination averages an annual return of 19.3%. 100% VOO averages 15.4% and 1/3 each VOO, SCHD and
VGT averages 18%. I am going to set aside 10% for indivual stocks to "play with" but for the most part i'm doing more harm than good trying to chase rips in the market.
Going to do something like this with about 25k from a CD that just matured. Curious what you guys would do as far as buy in time line. Go in 1k a week, 500 a week? Its earning 3.3% just sitting.
 
I did some back testing on portfolio visualizer going to put 90% of my portfolio with 50% VGT and 50% SCHD. That combination averages an annual return of 19.3%. 100% VOO averages 15.4% and 1/3 each VOO, SCHD and
VGT averages 18%. I am going to set aside 10% for indivual stocks to "play with" but for the most part i'm doing more harm than good trying to chase rips in the market.
There's probably a simple answer to this, but why SCHD?
 
There's probably a simple answer to this, but why SCHD?
Not that it runs inverse but i would say the coorelation of SCHD is negative or unrelated to VOO and/or VGT. So when the tech stocks are in an dip SCHD usually is going the other direction, plus the increasing dividends YoY. SCHD evens out the drawdowns when tech dips. Someone else may have a better explination/TA but this is my basic understanding.
 
Someone else may have a better explination/TA but this is my basic understanding.
Mby one explanation. When investors are looking to rotate out of growth they at times might look to rotate into value, SCHD is a value stock. It holds companies such as: Home Depot, Merck & Co, UnitedHealth Group, Amgen, and Abbott Laboratories, etc….

When the heat in the kitchen gets a bit too warm you might want to chill out a bit with something more stable.
 
Oracle still dropping. Any reason not to buy at this point?
I'm sure you noticed the markets change in the last month. It seems that attitudes have changed on Tech. Many big hedge funds and such are taking profits- and it makes sense as tech, especially semi's have run up hard.

The market took software companies out and shot them last year with the thought that AI is going to put them out of business. I own Adobe, buying in small increments as it drops. That one has the additional stigma of no CEO and CFO right now. My thought is the business would do even better leveraging AI- but it seems it's going to take awhile for that to materialize.

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Look at those^ good performance numbers.

Oracle is in a similar boat to ADBE. They laid off thousands of folks last year dropping their head count a lot. That makes sense to me as they can leverage AI also. Looking at their metrics the market has both ADBE and ORCL way undervalued. It could be I'm wrong but these sure seem like good companies that can leverage AI to their advantage.

The Semi's can't get a bid. Of course its because those have run up hard....but look at their metrics; MU sold out through 2027, huge 80% plus growth and profit margin above 50%.

Supposed hot shot Michael Burry is shorting it. I think he is dead wrong though he has picked up 10% on the announcement. Sorry MB but this is not the old memory cycle- at least for another few years.

NVDA stagnant- but they are doing all of the right things, their sales and profit are still through the roof. TSM still makes 92% of all the top chips with huge profits and growth. My thought is eventually the market will recognize these metrics.

The market [supposed] pros are locking in profits becuase they are scared and short term oriented. I think another couple quarters of watching these Semi co's make nothing but money could see a change in the thinking of these big investment orgs- thats my hope anyway.

Same with the Tech ETF's. Whats not to like owning a bunch of high growth and big profit companies that are becoming more and more of our lives especially if you have a long time horizon. The key to these is to DCA in as they are volatile.

EDIT- I meant to add; Stocks like MU, TSM, NVDA- and even ORCL and ADBE are different from something like SpaceX in that they are established and have a track record of profits. These companies HAVE earnings, unlike a SpaceX that is pie in the sky.

To say these companies are going to completely go away is a big leap- IMO. I think profit margins might get squeezed at the software companies but they can offset that with lower headcounts.

Sure businesses can be wiped out by tech progress like inReach/Zoleo with recent phone satellite tech but this is different. I'm just a guy....but it sure seems like the supposed experts are making some wild assumptions.
 
Oracle still dropping. Any reason not to buy at this point?
No guarantees in life, and especially not stocks, but this is something to consider if you're thinking ORCL has upside. Link HERE.


Eddie


P.S. I would have bought ORCL today, but Schwab continues to piss me off beyond all pissivity with how they do things and how their web site works, or doesn't. I need a new brokerage, but I'm too lazy to change.
 
No guarantees in life, and especially not stocks, but this is something to consider if you're thinking ORCL has upside. Link HERE.


Eddie


P.S. I would have bought ORCL today, but Schwab continues to piss me off beyond all pissivity with how they do things and how their web site works, or doesn't. I need a new brokerage, but I'm too lazy to change.
Fidelity has been good to me overall. A few hiccups in option trades, but overall great.
 
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