The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[2531usmc]

Musks comments are self serving for sure especially with the promise of robots. His cutting edge companies are interesting but have been more sizzle than steak. He has a big loyal following and that has propped Tesla up. Folks have made money from him but is it one of those, "Past Results don't predict future returns" things?

With E cars that are 1/3rd the price of a Tesla....Lidar sensors being more effective than video.....and solar systems with a couple batteries costing $50k....I think it's tough sledding there.

Robotics is promising but profitability is a bit too far away. I like Musk....but not to invest in his companies.

You would think intuitively that lidar + video is more effective than video alone, but I think the issue is when the car’s Lidar and video come into conflict. The processing power (and associated cost) to resolve that may prove Musk right in the long run.

 

[Poser]

I think Tesla missed the mark on the pricing of the Cybertruck. When they offered it this February for $59,995 they sold out all of 2026 production and part of 2027 in 2 weeks. I know someone that ordered one on the last day of the sale and received a late 2027 production date. There are only 200-300 used Cybertrucks for sale in the US and the average price is holding above 75k.

There's somewhere in the realm of 10,000 units that are sitting in surplus as of Q1 2026. If you look back to 2025, the estimates are the same. That's ~$800 million dollars of inventory that have been sitting on parking lots for 2 years now. They have reduced production on these due to the surplus. 2025 had a 48% decline in sales over 2024. Q4 2025 was a 68% decline. Musk had projected Tesla manufacturing 250,000 units annually. The most they ever sold in a year was 39,000 in 2024.

Used market? I speculate that not many people are trying to sell them because there isn't much demand, the deprecation is high and the trade in value is comparatively low. Obviously, there is some market for them, but, overall, if you bought one, you're best finical decision is probably just to keep driving it.

I wouldn't bet against Elon.

I'm not "betting" against him financially by shorting relevant stocks if that's what you mean, but I predict his arch will be that of going down in spectacular flames of failure and it will be almost entirely of his own doing. I do appreciate the visionary aspects and the world does need visionaries, but his extreme kookiness, political meddlings and DOGE corruptions largely overshadow those societal benefits of being a visionary. There's a way he could have played being a visionary, he didn't play it and he ultimately will not recover from it.

 

[IdahoBeav]

Have the F150 Lighting and Chevy Silverado EV been more successful than the Cybertruck?

 

[BBob]

F150 Lighting

Discontinued, that is the full EV model. They’ve now gone to a goofy hybrid design. Let’s see how that works out. It was reported that they lost money on all that they sold even at the much higher price than initially advertised.

 

[2531usmc]

Have the F150 Lighting and Chevy Silverado EV been more successful than the Cybertruck?

But wasn’t the

Have the F150 Lighting and Chevy Silverado EV been more successful than the Cybertruck?

if I recall, Ford and Chevy were pretty much legislated into the ev trucks.

 

[sasquatch]

I think Tesla missed the mark on the pricing of the Cybertruck. When they offered it this February for $59,995 they sold out all of 2026 production and part of 2027 in 2 weeks. I know someone that ordered one on the last day of the sale and received a late 2027 production date. There are only 200-300 used Cybertrucks for sale in the US and the average price is holding above 75k. If Tesla would continue to sell them for $59,995 they'd sell all they could build. I wouldn't call that a flop. The Tesla Model Y has been the world's best selling car for 3 years in a row now.

I don't own a Tesla but I did "drive" a Model Y recently. The full self driving was amazing. You have to experience it to believe it. I'll be buying a Model Y for my Mom in 2028 for her 80th birthday and paying for the self driving subscription. She still drives fine during the day and hasn't had any accidents yet but admits that her night vision is poor and it limits her driving to daylight hours. Full self driving will be a game changer for the elderly, and people with disabilities that prohibit them from driving.

I wouldn't bet against Elon.

Just wait until Self driving can prove to be safer, insurance companies will then take over to force people that directing as ins prices will spike for anything but self driving.

I don’t think people realize how connected everything is to where big Corp and force us the direction they want.

We are not a very tough society anymore that endure tough sledding


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[fmyth]

There's somewhere in the realm of 10,000 units that are sitting in surplus as of Q1 2026. If you look back to 2025, the estimates are the same. That's ~$800 million dollars of inventory that have been sitting on parking lots for 2 years now. They have reduced production on these due to the surplus. 2025 had a 48% decline in sales over 2024. Q4 2025 was a 68% decline. Musk had projected Tesla manufacturing 250,000 units annually. The most they ever sold in a year was 39,000 in 2024.

Used market? I speculate that not many people are trying to sell them because there isn't much demand, the deprecation is high and the trade in value is comparatively low. Obviously, there is some market for them, but, overall, if you bought one, you're best finical decision is probably just to keep driving it.



I'm not "betting" against him financially by shorting relevant stocks if that's what you mean, but I predict his arch will be that of going down in spectacular flames of failure and it will be almost entirely of his own doing. I do appreciate the visionary aspects and the world does need visionaries, but his extreme kookiness, political meddlings and DOGE corruptions largely overshadow those societal benefits of being a visionary. There's a way he could have played being a visionary, he didn't play it and he ultimately will not recover from it.

You should call or visit your local Tesla store. There are zero new Cybertrucks available for sale in the US. According to Tesla, the 10,000 surplus units you mentioned above do not exist. You can order one today and get delivery in 2027.

 

[Fowl Play]

The reason there are no new cybertrucks is because SpaceX bought them all to use as fleet vehicles (because they weren’t selling)… so kinda fixing his own books there. Don’t get me started on that truck, I actually sold all my Tesla stock when I saw the design. It’s too polarizing. Has amazing features though. If he had made it look like a conventional truck it would have been one of Tesla’s best sellers. Only recently bought back in to Tesla after he finally focused back on his companies after his political dabblings.

Overall I wouldn’t bet against Elon (or really his team of world class engineers). But he definitely always doubles down. Any other person on earth would have relaxed on the gravy train that is Starlink, but instead he’s full throttle on Starship and now AI data centers in space (fixes power, regulatory, and cooling issues). Both of which are unfathomably difficult projects. If SpaceX IPO’s at near $2 trillion it will be crazy. But if starship and data centers take off you’ll wish you had invested. High risk, high reward is his mantra. Tesla is all ahead full on robots and fully self driving taxis, that’s why they are canceling the Model S and Model X so they can dedicate those assembly lines to those. Time will tell how big of the market share they get. China will be a huge competitor in those arenas.

 

[BBob]

Buy it now? NVO- Novo Nordisk is probably my top pick right now.

Inverse Cramer is in effect.

Cramer said he doesn't want to own Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) as they are not good at what they do and would rather buy some Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)

 

[NDGuy]

Msft earnings holy fack.

40% Azure Growth

 

[CorbLand]

Msft earnings holy fack.

40% Azure Growth

You see Googles?

 

[NDGuy]

You see Googles?

I love google been holding awhile

 

[LFC911]

I have a buy order in for PLTR at 125

 

[Pramo]

Be cautious on underestimating AI and how impactful it is. I've been CTO of 3 companies and currently build real-time processing system that handle billions of dollars of transactions annually. Don't underestimate what AI can replace and AI as a force multiplier. A great employee with AI can do the work of 3-4 employees and a poor employee with AI is exponentially worse as they cannot make heads or tails of what AI is giving them.

I firmly believe Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: ‘Most people will lose their job to somebody who uses AI’—not to AI itself

The disruption will be real for lots of desk jobs not just coders, my advice is to adapt and learn to use it if your not towards the tail end of your career

As for Tesla tough stock I swing trade it often, but also am in the ecosystem. Try self driving we use 98% of the time for the last 18K miles from traffic in DC and Georgetown to all around the east coast. Truly the most impressive and life changing technology since Wifi (Smart phone was predictable so that doesn't count)

Last month electric bill was $-44 and that includes all our driving so Solar + Tesla Powerwalls + Telsa Model Y will have about ~7 year payback. With the tax credits gone tougher pill to swallow but we bought it all outright and then made out a like a bandit during Tumpy's tariffs last year and made 70% on NVDA buying big at the bottom