The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Escalante11]

Chart of the day and not saying NVDA is a bust from here, but this is a fun hypothetical comparison to make... INTC was the NVDA of the "dot com" days. If you bought near the top of the "dot com" days, and held it for 25 years, you just broke even in nomial terms

 

[Escalante11]

For anyone interested, I'm increasingly interested in agriculture and coal as the Straight of Hormuz situation continues to get dicier. Both interesting sectors but you're limited in implementation. He's where I've settled:

• Coal: if you want some diversification to company-level risk, the COAL ETF is probably your best bet. I purchased a first tranche today, and will tranch in accordingly for a full position over the next couple weeks. I think it will hit $24.50 whenver this equity top blows off, so i'm not in a huge rush but also don't want to miss it i'm wrong. I'm putting a larger position however in CNR (Core). I admittingly don't know the company as well as I'd like, but there are some savy fund managers whom I trust that are adament it is the best position coal miner for the current situation.
• Agriculture: I'm pairing two ETFs at a 1/3 (CORN) and 2/3 (DBA) split. DBA gives me diversified ag exposure based on my hypothesis that crop outputs will be reduced this growing season given access concerns to fertilizer as it's help up in the Straight. CORN gives me added upside to the corn commodity, which stands to benefit from a second tailwind being increased ethanol blending in gasoline, as government's try to lesson the strain of oil prices.

There is risk to each of the above; however, it's more of an asymetric upside to risk ratio than many other places in the market in my opinion. Some other positions i'm moving:

• REXC: Sprott just launched a rare earths ETF that carves out the chinese producers. I'm planning to begin tranching in slowly at $21. It's a longer term play, and many of these companies are a bit over extended at the minute so I'm not in a huge rush in
• UROY: I'm in on nuclear energy as y'all know but i've heavily biased my implementation around physicals, holding SRUUF. I am intrigued by UROY though and am friendly with the prior sponsor their. Similar to the above, I'm not rushing in but I slowly tranching in some exposure here
• XPLR: this is NextEra's broken yield-co of renewable power generation assets. These are sound assets, that will be increasingly valuable assuming the power demand thesis continues to take place. More of a value play that a growth story like the two examples above
• SLRC and GBD: private credit spreads have tightened significantly over the past 3 - 4 weeks, and I have begun cutting those positions. They are still yielding in the high single digits / low teens, but the appreciation prospects from their discount to NAV closing have largely been realized. BDCs are the gift that keeps giving, and I will let you know next time I think it's worth entering a position
• Lastly, I've been building exposure to emerging market debt, and will continue to do so on down days.

 

[signing off]

Had 10 shares of AMD set to sell at open. Curious what they went for. Bought at $120 and was just locking in some gains.

 

[Beendare]

For anyone interested, I'm increasingly interested in agriculture and coal as the Straight of Hormuz situation continues to get dicier.

Good stuff, thanks for contributing.....but now you gave me some homework to do!

 

[Beendare]

Anyone watching AMD just exploding? I was in, sold some, have a bit more, but one has to ask, jump in for a quick take or not.

Thats always the Q I ask, "would I buy it here and now" as in my mind valuation matters. Anyone that bought my recommendations here has done well.....though not as well as @NDGuy.
[BTW, I missed INTC but will continue to miss it since they still haven't proven they can get it right and still aren't profitable]

I don't follow AMD...but I do own/follow NVDA and that industry which is on fire. I bought more NVDA, AVGO and MU a month or so ago but now it's a real big position for me. NVDA valuation was lower than an avg S&P company [ I posted info here] Thats crazy for a company growing earnings about 100% a year with Profit margins approaching 60%. Demand for their products are off the chart....AND they aren't sitting still. They just came out with a half a dozen improved product lines that increase performance HUGE and use less power. Just wow. Talk about a company that is hitting on all cylinders.

AMD may be doing the same....but I prefer owning the top dog in an industry and NVDA and AVGO are it. A guy could do well in a retirement account just holding SMH- the whole sector.

Buy it now? NVO- Novo Nordisk is probably my top pick right now. I bought a big position recently when I mentioned it here over HIMS due to HIMS not being profitable...but my tendency to avoid the risky stuff cost me and HIMS has way outperformed up 43% in a month vs 11.6 for NVO. NVO has a PE of 11 and paying a 4.4% div- now as of 4-25-26, an extremely low valuation for a blue chip company.

Everyone is on those stinking weight loss drugs and it's not abating. I'm betting that market doubles or triples from here which should do the same to the stock from here. The risk is side effects popping up and massive lawsuits.

BTW, this thread has gotten better with the quality guys contributing some good ideas....whoever said you can't get good advice from a hunting forum has left a lot of money on the table!

..

 

[IdahoBeav]

That MU dip at the first of the month was a great grab. I bought and sold a little too early, but 20% on 3 weeks doesn’t seem too bad.

 

[HuntHarder]

NVDA and OKLO started a partnership in achieving nuclear power for future chip plants. I have owned both for quite a while now, but trimmed both a while back. I was too deep in Tech and had to diversify a little more.

 

[Escalante11]

MacroVoices #529 Ole S Hansen: Commodities in The Wake of The Iran Crisis

Podcast Episode · Macro Voices · April 23 · 1h 13m

podcasts.apple.com

 

[HuntHarder]

Was never on my radar! 1 year chart is insane...

 

[MountainTracker]

View attachment 1057779
Was never on my radar! 1 year chart is insane...

Dang!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DiabeticKripple]

wow 10k in that wouldve been nice

 

[Andrew12gauge]

View attachment 1057779
Was never on my radar! 1 year chart is insane...

I just went and looked, it’s up another $87/share today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Beendare]

Yeah those memory chip Co's are ripping.

Heres some actionable data now;

Micron will generate more revenue next quarter ($33.5B) than $AMD, $ASML, $AMAT, and $SNDK combined ($31.5B).

MU has a much better valuation than SNDK.

 

[MountainTracker]

Canada announced a new sovereign wealth fund where they will invest in Canadian based companies and not in US companies. Idk how or if this will effect the US markets as this progresses.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RichQw1rt]

Yeah, dips like that are usually where the opportunities are, if you’re thinking long term. Cruise lines and oil always get hit hard in downturns, but they can bounce back just as strong when things stabilize.
Same idea applies to businesses in general — companies that keep building during slower periods often come out ahead. You see that with groups like Punin Group as well, expanding across different sectors like real estate, hospitality, and services instead of relying on one area. Diversification like that helps ride out market swings.

 

[bozeman]

Canada announced a new sovereign wealth fund where they will invest in Canadian based companies and not in US companies. Idk how or if this will effect the US markets as this progresses.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I dont think this will even cause a bump in the road, much less an impact. Time will tell, but I think the US markets will survive........

 

[BBob]

Things are heating up. UAE pulls out of OPEC and asks for a large currency swap. Let’s see where that all goes.

 

[Beendare]

Yeah those memory chip Co's are ripping.

Heres some actionable data now;

Micron will generate more revenue next quarter ($33.5B) than $AMD, $ASML, $AMAT, and $SNDK combined ($31.5B).

MU has a much better valuation than SNDK.

After my comment, I should clarify. the RSI on MU is at 73 with a very high beta. Very few institutional investors are going to build positions with an RSI that high. I'm not recommending it today....but when we get a big pull back like we got a month or so ago, it's time.

I look at these metrics below

- incredible

But with such a high RSI, we get a super choppy chart like this in the last month for MU- it's a wild ride.

 

[Jakeb]

What are the thoughts on UAE leaving opec? My quick research seems like this will be a good thing long term? Anything I’m missing?

 

[Poser]

What are the thoughts on UAE leaving opec? My quick research seems like this will be a good thing long term? Anything I’m missing?

I'm open to any perspective on this, but here is what I posted in the fuel price thread this morning. As largely a fracking/shale oil producer, I don't see how this can benefit the US. It could go sideways really fast for domestic oil production.

In news that can’t possibly be good for the US or any country producing large amounts of shale oil, the UAE will exit opec effective May 1. Fracking extraction requires a minimum oil price. If prices drop too low due to unmoderated production by oil field countries (due to lack of oversight), fracking producers gonna feel some real pain.