The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Beendare]

I'm referring to ticker TSM aka TSMC

It's my largest position, just about to be a 4 bagger....I watch it like a hawk.

TSM makes almost 90% of the worlds most complex semiconductors.....no one else is even close. I think it's Samsung is their next closest competitor at about 10%. When you hear about Nvdia, they don't make anything- just design....TSM makes their chips. TSM was the biggest no brainer in my investing time frame- they dominate the competition.

So TSM has a commanding lead over everyone else and they make appx 50% profit on everything they make. That profit will probably drop a little due to cap ex in the US expanding their manufacturing.

The big negative to TSM is if China invades Taiwan- a possibility- which would tank that stock by 50% (?) overnight. The stock typically does these long run ups....then it falls back into a buy range on some sort of snag or world news.

I think the trick is; Buy stocks/ETF's in the market segments that will do well over the next 5 years, and to buy stocks at a reasonable valuation....TSM is getting extended. MSFT looks good in here.

 

[MountainTracker]

It's my largest position, just about to be a 4 bagger....I watch it like a hawk.

TSM makes almost 90% of the worlds most complex semiconductors.....no one else is even close. I think it's Samsung is their next closest competitor at about 10%. When you hear about Nvdia, they don't make anything- just design....TSM makes their chips. TSM was the biggest no brainer in my investing time frame- they dominate the competition.

So TSM has a commanding lead over everyone else and they make appx 50% profit on everything they make. That profit will probably drop a little due to cap ex in the US expanding their manufacturing.

The big negative to TSM is if China invades Taiwan- a possibility- which would tank that stock by 50% (?) overnight. The stock typically does these long run ups....then it falls back into a buy range on some sort of snag or world news.

I think the trick is; Buy stocks/ETF's in the market segments that will do well over the next 5 years, and to buy stocks at a reasonable valuation....TSM is getting extended. MSFT looks good in here.

What buy range do you look to deploy at or is it based off of a % from high?


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[Beendare]

What buy range do you look to deploy at or is it based off of a % from high?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Are you talking TSM or MSFT?

I'm not even considering buying any more TSM....it's become a crazy high % of my portfolio...so I haven't evaluated that possibility.

I haven't done a deep dive on MSFT....but I typically look at;
1)Technically whether it's oversold-right now probably but that doesn't mean it can drop even more.

2) profit margin and their business moving forward. MSFT is spectacular in both of those categories...the problem is whether their massive AI expenditures are actually going to add value to their model.

I'm still undecided on MSFT though on initial look it's a winner.
_____________\

I have said I like to look at trends- and this one is fairly obvious but it took Morningstar to slap me upside the head with it;
(C&P of Morningstar on NVO)
A pioneer in diabetes care, Novo Nordisk has been in the business for over 85 years. It claims 30% of the

$100 billion diabetes treatment market and roughly half of the more than $15 billion insulin market.

Diabetes' prevalence is expected to soar in the coming decades as a result of an increasingly

overweight and aging population, and we expect Novo to maintain its wide moat as it continues to

innovate in both diabetes and obesity therapies.

I'm looking hard at rotating some of my META into NVO and possibly HIMS....but still looking for cracks in those. I will post off I Buy them.

 

[safarihunter]

Are you talking TSM or MSFT?

I'm not even considering buying any more TSM....it's become a crazy high % of my portfolio...so I haven't evaluated that possibility.

I haven't done a deep dive on MSFT....but I typically look at;
1)Technically whether it's oversold-right now probably but that doesn't mean it can drop even more.

2) profit margin and their business moving forward. MSFT is spectacular in both of those categories...the problem is whether their massive AI expenditures are actually going to add value to their model.

I'm still undecided on MSFT though on initial look it's a winner.
_____________\

I have said I like to look at trends- and this one is fairly obvious but it took Morningstar to slap me upside the head with it;
(C&P of Morningstar on NVO)
A pioneer in diabetes care, Novo Nordisk has been in the business for over 85 years. It claims 30% of the

$100 billion diabetes treatment market and roughly half of the more than $15 billion insulin market.

Diabetes' prevalence is expected to soar in the coming decades as a result of an increasingly

overweight and aging population, and we expect Novo to maintain its wide moat as it continues to

innovate in both diabetes and obesity therapies.

I'm looking hard at rotating some of my META into NVO and possibly HIMS....but still looking for cracks in those. I will post off I Buy them.

I'd looked at NVO about a year ago, but at the time Eli Lilly was eating into their market share significantly (when it came to GLP1 drugs in particular). Looks like NVO is first to market with a pill version, but Eli Lilly is expected to be not far behind again. If they were the only ones with an approved pill version of GLP1 for an extended time, that would for sure be a buy. If they start losing market share again in 6 months that leaves me questioning it a bit.

But you also know a lot more about investing and have much better formed strategies than I do...

 

[signing off]

Did anyone make $$ on HOOD? Currently down after earnings report but has shot up the past year.

 

[Crowmangler]

Did anyone make $$ on HOOD? Currently down after earnings report but has shot up the past year.

I made a few $$ off selling cash secured puts with it over the last few months. Currently have 1 remaining contract that's no bueno that I'll be rolling out in the next week or so. I almost closed it out yesterday but didn't (wrong decision). The main reason I never liked it enough to buy shares was its heavy association with crypto

 

[Beendare]

I'd looked at NVO about a year ago, but at the time Eli Lilly was eating into their market share significantly (when it came to GLP1 drugs in particular). Looks like NVO is first to market with a pill version, but Eli Lilly is expected to be not far behind again. If they were the only ones with an approved pill version of GLP1 for an extended time, that would for sure be a buy. If they start losing market share again in 6 months that leaves me questioning it a bit.

Good analysis^

The way I'm reading this GLP stuff....there will always be competition, so their first in advantage is pretty much gone. It's always a question of what will it be one year, two years and on from now.

So more competition- check
Pills vs the shots- check
Prices and margins are going to come way down- check
When my rancher buddy in Timbuktu is on these drugs- I realize it's not just a fat chick thing. Then I see estimates that tens of millions will be on these drugs in the future- WOW

Is there a clear leader?...is one of these drugs superior to another? Is there a potential for a horrible side effect that they will be sued into oblivion?

The two main big companies making these drugs are cash cows, efficient and well run. I'm thinking they both will do well almost no matter what...but in other words...I currently only know what I would consider to be the tip of the iceberg on this segment. I'm all ears for input.

 

[MountainTracker]

Are you talking TSM or MSFT?

I'm not even considering buying any more TSM....it's become a crazy high % of my portfolio...so I haven't evaluated that possibility.

I haven't done a deep dive on MSFT....but I typically look at;
1)Technically whether it's oversold-right now probably but that doesn't mean it can drop even more.

2) profit margin and their business moving forward. MSFT is spectacular in both of those categories...the problem is whether their massive AI expenditures are actually going to add value to their model.

I'm still undecided on MSFT though on initial look it's a winner.
_____________\

I have said I like to look at trends- and this one is fairly obvious but it took Morningstar to slap me upside the head with it;
(C&P of Morningstar on NVO)
A pioneer in diabetes care, Novo Nordisk has been in the business for over 85 years. It claims 30% of the

$100 billion diabetes treatment market and roughly half of the more than $15 billion insulin market.

Diabetes' prevalence is expected to soar in the coming decades as a result of an increasingly

overweight and aging population, and we expect Novo to maintain its wide moat as it continues to

innovate in both diabetes and obesity therapies.

I'm looking hard at rotating some of my META into NVO and possibly HIMS....but still looking for cracks in those. I will post off I Buy them.

I was talking TSM.

Yeah diabetes isn’t going anywhere, and I don’t know if there is much of a drive to try and fix it bc of the fat cash cow it is.

At one point I held SENS bc they had developed a 30 day, under the skin blood glucose monitor. The next best is a 10 day monitor from dexcom (DXCM).

I know HOOD and COIN have been taking a beating today, I’ve been looking for a good pullback, this might be it.


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[TX_Diver]

My original question was about stock ticker TSM, but I notice there are some alternates like TSMX and TSMY also

 

[Beendare]

I know HOOD and COIN have been taking a beating today, I’ve been looking for a good pullback, this might be it.

Those stocks totally follow/correlate with the price of Bitcoin...overlay the charts.

TSM should probably be 50% higher than it is now...if it weren't for the China overhang.

 

[Beendare]

Yeah diabetes isn’t going anywhere, and I don’t know if there is much of a drive to try and fix it bc of the fat cash cow it is.

At one point I held SENS bc they had developed a 30 day, under the skin blood glucose monitor. The next best is a 10 day monitor from dexcom (DXCM).

I know HOOD and COIN have been taking a beating today, I’ve been looking for a good pullback, this might be it.

Hood and Coinbase; Both have had low trading levels- not good for profits and they both correlate with the price of Bitcoin...probably more to drop. Patience Grasshopper- grin. Both need to bottom for a good buy in point.
The avg Joe has lost confidence in Bitcoin.
Currently the bitcoin bulls like Saylor are going all in on propping up the price....thats still not working and they can only do this so long.

________

I said I would post on this; I bought some NVO today- about 1/2 position, at $49.45 and 49.40. It might go a little lower. LLY and NVO will be neck and neck in that segment. There will be price pressure down the road for the GLP type drugs-From Trump and the big HC companies for both shot and pills- that will hurt their margins. My bet is it's still a cash cow.

NVO is a leader in the segment, a big savvy company. It's nothing they have not dealt with before so I'm confident they can solve whatever issues come up. The stock price will probably be volatile so don't overpay on good news. One negative to NVO is it appears the LLY drug seems to be just a tad better- which is probably the reason why LLY stock price has held strong. This business is all about managing BIG contracts with large HC companies- NVO and LLY are expert at this.

I looked at HIMS and just can't pull the trigger right now. It still has a pretty high PE and possibly big negatives due to the GLP1 stuff. My bet is they negotiate a deal with NVO or LLY- probably NVO to get in on that space and the stock pops. (A guess)

They were trying to go around NVO and LLY and that didn't work well. They need to be in that segment. I decided to play this whole thing with NVO.

What to expect from this? I don';t think NVO is a home run, double in a year. type thing. I'm looking for about 15-20% growth...but also, I'm diversifying a little bit away from Tech. NVO should hold pretty steady if we get a market downturn.

 

[Beendare]

I should have mentioned- there is a probably a safer way for the avg guy to invest in this diabetes/weight loss drug segment and its one of the ETF's like OZEM. I will probably buy in on one of those myself.

OZEM is 18% NVO and 15% LLY along with many of the other top Pharma companies, 67% in the top 10 holdings. A bit concentrated but thats not a negative, IMO in this segment.