The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[MountainTracker]

My retirement account is up 19% ytd thanks to going heavy on an international index fund (and no thanks to some poorly timed btc exposure). International indexes beat domestic ones by a fair bit this year. Anyone have thoughts on whether that will continue into the upcoming year?

Yep going to I fund was the move to make this year,


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[Paradox]

My wife is over 59.5, so we have her funds in a Fidelity traditional and Roth IRA, which i'm actively trading stocks and ETF's. I am not day trading the same stock but I am typically selling them within a year, which triggers short term capital gains.

Stupid Question - Other than paying the higher taxes when I'm cutting/minimizing losses or harvesting gains, is there any downside to doing this kind of activity?

Let me have it!

You can trade any way you want in your trad and Roth IRA!
You won’t pay any tax until you take the money out of traditional and that is taxed at your regular rate. No tax on the Roth, so trade away!!

 

[LFC911]

You can trade any way you want in your trad and Roth IRA!
You won’t pay any tax until you take the money out of traditional and that is taxed at your regular rate. No tax on the Roth, so trade away!!

I was thinking that as well after doing some more research and reading this...thanks for confirming.

Do You Pay Capital Gains on Roth IRAs and IRAs? | SoFi

You don't owe capital gains tax on investment profits within a traditional or Roth IRA. Typically, taxes come into play around withdrawals. Learn more.

www.sofi.com

 

[Beendare]

i'm actively trading stocks and ETF's. I am not day trading the same stock but I am typically selling them within a year, which triggers short term capital gains.

Stupid Question - Other than paying the higher taxes when I'm cutting/minimizing losses or harvesting gains, is there any downside to doing this kind of activity?

Let me have it!

I trade in my IRA's, those trades are tax deferred.

So is trading good? The stocks I pick for Trades are always ones I like. I don't do many Puts or shorting anymore-I wasn't very good at it.

So the question is always, do I take a decent short term gain on a stock I like...or would I have been better off holding it long term? I've did it this year with BTU. Coal stock, out of favor and I didn't really want to own it long term but I figured it was a 1-2 year hold. It went up something like 80% really quick...and thinking it would whipsaw and drop right back- I sold it [IRA- so no tax] Nope.

IF I would have just held it- I would be looking at a 270% profit. My thesis that the company was undervalued- and metallurgic coal is not going away anytime soon still holds. The trade mentality hurt me more than helped.

I think watching the markets almost daily messes me up sometimes giving me more of a trading mentality. I think the best strategy is to hold stocks and sectors until the investment thesis changes. Questions like; Is the company still making a 40% profit margin...is the industry they are in still booming? If so, no reason to trade it.

 

[Beendare]

International?
Random thoughts......

I think it's smart to invest in sector ETF's that will benefit for the next few years. The International sector is a big category. SE Asia and India can go through periods of huge growth...with dormant periods in between. India is on a tear right now. Europe, has a lot of challenges.

Many international ETF's have a big % in Europe. I think the Euro stuff is going to have some tough sledding for a couple years mainly due to 2 things.
1) they have to cover their own military security and
2) their political environment

Heres a comment from a financial piece on Europe HERE (c/o middeleasteye.net, Marco Carnelos) that you might want to factor into your investment thesis;

Since 2022, European leaders have undermined their own energy security, lost competitiveness, hollowed out industrial capacity and embraced deindustrialization as a virtue - all in the name of a war they are unlikely to win, not least because it is being fought through a strategy they do not control.

In regular times, this would induce political vertigo. Instead, the German chancellor has the audacity to insist that his country is neither weak nor small.

Across Europe, factories are closing, energy prices are skyrocketing and supply chains are migrating. Yet EU decision-makers persist in a state of cognitive dissonance, functioning on autopilot. There appears to be no vision. Diplomacy has vanished. No credible new security architecture for the continent is even discussed. Instead, everything is filtered through a single matrix known as Russophobia, a sentiment masquerading as strategy.

 

[MountainTracker]

International?
Random thoughts......

I think it's smart to invest in sector ETF's that will benefit for the next few years. The International sector is a big category. SE Asia and India can go through periods of huge growth...with dormant periods in between. India is on a tear right now. Europe, has a lot of challenges.

Many international ETF's have a big % in Europe. I think the Euro stuff is going to have some tough sledding for a couple years mainly due to 2 things.
1) they have to cover their own military security and
2) their political environment

Heres a comment from a financial piece on Europe HERE (c/o middeleasteye.net, Marco Carnelos) that you might want to factor into your investment thesis;

Since 2022, European leaders have undermined their own energy security, lost competitiveness, hollowed out industrial capacity and embraced deindustrialization as a virtue - all in the name of a war they are unlikely to win, not least because it is being fought through a strategy they do not control.

In regular times, this would induce political vertigo. Instead, the German chancellor has the audacity to insist that his country is neither weak nor small.

Across Europe, factories are closing, energy prices are skyrocketing and supply chains are migrating. Yet EU decision-makers persist in a state of cognitive dissonance, functioning on autopilot. There appears to be no vision. Diplomacy has vanished. No credible new security architecture for the continent is even discussed. Instead, everything is filtered through a single matrix known as Russophobia, a sentiment masquerading as strategy.

I don’t disagree with anything you posted. When trump announced tariffs the I fund took off, it hasn’t done this well in a while. Idk if it will hold into 26, with a new fed coming in (just bc of money printing) and a number of large companies moving to the US now


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[sasquatch]

My retirement account is up 19% ytd thanks to going heavy on an international index fund (and no thanks to some poorly timed btc exposure). International indexes beat domestic ones by a fair bit this year. Anyone have thoughts on whether that will continue into the upcoming year?

I have thoughts in investing, but they aren’t over a year. More so 10+

I’d still never bet against the USA. Unless you feel you can make two correct bets (when to buy AND when to sell) playing the international game has never really been a LONG term win.

Here in the US, as screwed up as we are, we still have a lot more knobs to turn than anyone else. There’s a reason the majority of companies want to be listed on our exchanges

If you up 19% you’re not very much above what the standard SP 500 did, and you could’ve been holding the USA


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[cubdriver84d]

I have thoughts in investing, but they aren’t over a year. More so 10+

I’d still never bet against the USA. Unless you feel you can make two correct bets (when to buy AND when to sell) playing the international game has never really been a LONG term win.

Here in the US, as screwed up as we are, we still have a lot more knobs to turn than anyone else. There’s a reason the majority of companies want to be listed on our exchanges

If you up 19% you’re not very much above what the standard SP 500 did, and you could’ve been holding the USA


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I'm still holding majority SP500 index, which is why I'm not up more ytd...grin..

The particular fund that @MountainTracker and I are referring to is up over 10% more ytd than it's comparable SP500 index fund. I share your longterm thoughts, but that is substantial. Just trying to feel out whether it's worth continuing this strategy for a little longer.

 

[sasquatch]

I'm still holding majority SP500 index, which is why I'm not up more ytd...grin..

The particular fund that @MountainTracker and I are referring to is up over 10% more ytd than it's comparable SP500 index fund. I share your longterm thoughts, but that is substantial. Just trying to feel out whether it's worth continuing this strategy for a little longer.

YTD is mostly irrelevant if you still early in investing years. AKA far out from retirement

What’s the 5yr and 10yr view look like ?

My retirement account is up 21.8% without using international by just having SP 500 and a decent portion on the tech side with QQQ. Not that it matters, just saying “international” ain’t necessarily the only way or reason to be up without individual stock risk.

With the money being spent here right now, I sure wouldn’t bet against the USA right now but I could be wrong

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[Pharmseller]

Four days until fully funding four different IRAs. Mine (very short horizon, I’m 62), my wife’s (she’s 59), my daughter’s (she’s 40), and my son’s (he’s 25).

Time to figure it out.

 

[cubdriver84d]

YTD is mostly irrelevant if you still early in investing years. AKA far out from retirement

What’s the 5yr and 10yr view look like ?

My retirement account is up 21.8% without using international by just having SP 500 and a decent portion on the tech side with QQQ. Not that it matters, just saying “international” ain’t necessarily the only way or reason to be up without individual stock risk.

With the money being spent here right now, I sure wouldn’t bet against the USA right now but I could be wrong

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Understood. Wish I had access to etf’s in my primary retirement account. Largely limited to sp500, small cap, and international index funds.

 

[sasquatch]

Understood. Wish I had access to etf’s in my primary retirement account. Largely limited to sp500, small cap, and international index funds.

Ahh man ik the feeling.

No free self brokerage option?

Also, compare the “expense” ratio of the others to the SP fund. You may realize the cost outweighs the extra growth if you haven’t checked it out already


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[Crowmangler]

Is there an ETF that owns Somali daycare centers in Minnesota?

 

[mountainman406]

Is there an ETF that owns Somali daycare centers in Minnesota?

USTP, outstanding ROI


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[cubdriver84d]

Ahh man ik the feeling.

No free self brokerage option?

Also, compare the “expense” ratio of the others to the SP fund. You may realize the cost outweighs the extra growth if you haven’t checked it out already


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Can put 25% into mutual funds, which I have, but there are fees. That’s the only flexibility. Expense ratios vary <0.02% between the three funds, so not really much concern there.

 

[Beendare]

Market Risk is never really discussed much here.....we have been conditioned to think the market just goes up- in little fits and starts...but that it will keep going. Maybe not, do you have an open mind?

Perma Bear Dave Collum- the Cornell organic Chem professor- came out with his 2025 year in review HERE its on the website peak prosperity.com for those that don't click links. WARNING; Most won't like this....

It's a treatise on market risks, a thoughtful analysis but it's long, rambling [ like Patton quotes during WWII rambling] and well footnoted. I found it entertaining with some good takeaways. Dave is a big precious metals guy- as a hedge no doubt for a market crash and he lists his portfolio and its performance. I think the biggest takeaway is that one can get set in their ways and once a Bull or Bear- thats your mindset.

This guy has a long list of US and world problems that could tank the markets. It will be depressing for those that want to remain blissfully ignorant.

There are 2 things I think he got wrong that keeps me positive for the next 10 months or so;
1) the market is its own perpetual motion machine now with passive investing in funds and ETF's. People are convinced that plugging money in these Funds/ETF's will give them a retirement nest egg and it has become automatic- money just keeps flooding in driving up valuations
2) I would agree with him we are in a bubble with this AI stuff....but I think it has more room to run. When we start seeing profit margin declines across the board in these companies [but Beendare, didn't you see META's last quarterly report? grin]

Add to that, The Fed is going to continue its easy money policy.

 

[MountainTracker]

Market Risk is never really discussed much here.....we have been conditioned to think the market just goes up- in little fits and starts...but that it will keep going. Maybe not, do you have an open mind?

Perma Bear Dave Collum- the Cornell organic Chem professor- came out with his 2025 year in review HERE its on the website peak prosperity.com for those that don't click links. WARNING; Most won't like this....

It's a treatise on market risks, a thoughtful analysis but it's long, rambling [ like Patton quotes during WWII rambling] and well footnoted. I found it entertaining with some good takeaways. Dave is a big precious metals guy- as a hedge no doubt for a market crash and he lists his portfolio and its performance. I think the biggest takeaway is that one can get set in their ways and once a Bull or Bear- thats your mindset.

This guy has a long list of US and world problems that could tank the markets. It will be depressing for those that want to remain blissfully ignorant.

There are 2 things I think he got wrong that keeps me positive for the next 10 months or so;
1) the market is its own perpetual motion machine now with passive investing in funds and ETF's. People are convinced that plugging money in these Funds/ETF's will give them a retirement nest egg and it has become automatic- money just keeps flooding in driving up valuations
2) I would agree with him we are in a bubble with this AI stuff....but I think it has more room to run. When we start seeing profit margin declines across the board in these companies [but Beendare, didn't you see META's last quarterly report? grin]

Add to that, The Fed is going to continue its easy money policy.

Just a few of the world problems happening right now that may have effected the markets and metals today.

China conducted a large live fire military drill around Taiwan after US sold weapons to Taiwan. Japan recently approved upping their military spending to make them the fourth largest in spending in the world.

Russia claims Ukraine launched a large drone attack aimed at president Putin, said to be an assassination attempt. Peace talks are not going forward.

US hit land targets in Venezuela.

These have the ability to move markets. I didn’t not post this for political banter to start.

To the perpetual investing machine, I can see that point bc every two weeks people get paid and they invest into the market automatically at some level bc they have been told this is how you save for retirement.


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[Beendare]

Just a few of the world problems happening right now that may have effected the markets and metals today.
......

I am under invested in metals.....when one looks at the current world conditions, it makes sense metals are going ballistic.....and it's true, one does have to look at world conditions in relation to the markets.

 

[2531usmc]

I am under invested in metals.....when one looks at the current world conditions, it makes sense metals are going ballistic.....and it's true, one does have to look at world conditions in relation to the markets.

I came to that same conclusion last week and started dipping my toe in the water. Bought some SPDR GLD.

 

[MountainTracker]

I am under invested in metals.....when one looks at the current world conditions, it makes sense metals are going ballistic.....and it's true, one does have to look at world conditions in relation to the markets.

It’s probably no secret where I am heavy but I also hold some metals. It’s never as much as we want when there’s pumps, can’t catch all the trains.

To me it’s an indication of where people are shifting bc of world conditions/markets


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