I would agree that the best strategy for most folks is to set and forget dollar cost avg into ETF's like VOO, QTEC and a few others. That strategy is VERY hard to beat performance wise.
It sounds like we agree more than we disagree.
I’ll add a few other ideas and would love to hear any responses or caveats that point out where I may be going astray.
I observe/think that the below points are often discounted or underplayed:
To capture the performance of a market, you must make only one right decision- buy an index fund. If at any point you sell, you have performed as well as the market.
To beat a market, you must make two correct decisions - first, identify a stock that is set to outperform and buy it, and second, identify when that stock will cease to outperform the market and then sell it.
Holding assets that are currently beating the market is (in my estimation) only something like 40-80% proof that you can/are going to beat the market.
Since very few companies beat the market over a long term period, beating the market almost always entails both buying and selling. Until an asset has been sold, it still has the ability to start underperforming and begin to lose to the market.
In my own experience, picking the winner is not enough.
I was right on Tesla, but sold too early. That means I was ultimately still wrong/underperforming. I am currently right with Amazon, but I have to decide to sell that at some point, otherwise I am almost gaurunteed to lose to the market over the next 10, 20, 30, or 40 years.
I am not accusing anyone of misleading or being in poor faith by bringing up these points, just trying to add to the conversation.
