The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[aftriathlete]

Before anything else, kudos again to all in the PR trade. My bet back at $8.50 didn't pay out as well as waiting would have.

Now my question is, anyone pay attention to I Bonds really understand why all the news stories are saying the expected rate announced on 1 Nov is going to be 6.48%? The interest rate is supposed to be a direct reflection of the CPI-Urban non-adjusted, which the last published for September was 8.2%. I don't think they'll have the October CPI-U by the time they announce the new rate on 1 Nov, so why wouldn't the rate be 8.2%? There must be something I'm missing, or something that's hidden, but it even explains on the Treasury Website how they calculate the interest rate and it's just the CPI-U plus the fixed rate that has been zero for a while now.

Edit: Just found this explanation at the link below. So I guess 8.2% YoY number is not what matters, it's the relative change from the index number 6 months ago. Which of course the Sept number was down due to the SPR releases and the decreased energy costs, but the price of energy going back up this month won't be captured. Guess that will be a good tailwind for the next 6 month period that will begin calculating with the October number.

September inflation report sets I Bond variable rate at 6.48%; Social Security COLA rises to 8.7%

Annual core inflation hits 6.6%, a 40-year high. This isn’t good news for financial markets. By David Enna, Tipswatch.com Here is it, the most important Inflation Day of the year, setting in …

tipswatch.com

 

[Idaboy]

My goal has always been $10.68, that's an even quarter million in gains on my $16k investment.
Trying to keep the faith.
$10 will likely be a big wall with many exiting. We'll see.

Might consider getting an option collar on that

 

[Kilboars]

If it makes you feel any better I want to put a $1,000 into CDEV when it was .34 a share during covid. I talked to my wife about it and she did not want too. That lesson is a painful one....

I got in at .70 just because you guys were talking about it so much here.

It’s been fun to ride.

As far as selling I may be selling everything except the Roth IRA to put into private lending. I love the control you have with it.


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[jorswift]

Hey all, been reading and following this thread for some time. I would like to get into some investing. I currently invest in my 401K through work, but would like to learn a bit more and do some investing on the side. Where is a good place to start? Fidelity, Vanguard, etc? Any good resources to read and learn from? I am a bit leery to just pick any "youtuber" and learn from them. Any help/advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

[Kilboars]

Hey all, been reading and following this thread for some time. I would like to get into some investing. I currently invest in my 401K through work, but would like to learn a bit more and do some investing on the side. Where is a good place to start? Fidelity, Vanguard, etc? Any good resources to read and learn from? I am a bit leery to just pick any "youtuber" and learn from them. Any help/advice would be appreciated. Thanks.

IMO.
Open an Ameritrade account for yourself.

Forget trying to time the market.

Invest in whole stocks of real companies with P/E, price earnings below 25.

Read this book.

It’s not about being clever and trying to outthink the rest of the investors it’s buying and holding great companies for a few decades.

Mutual funds charge you and trade in and out of your account and the short term capital gains will soak away your real profits.

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[aftriathlete]

Before anything else, kudos again to all in the PR trade. My bet back at $8.50 didn't pay out as well as waiting would have.

Now my question is, anyone pay attention to I Bonds really understand why all the news stories are saying the expected rate announced on 1 Nov is going to be 6.48%? The interest rate is supposed to be a direct reflection of the CPI-Urban non-adjusted, which the last published for September was 8.2%. I don't think they'll have the October CPI-U by the time they announce the new rate on 1 Nov, so why wouldn't the rate be 8.2%? There must be something I'm missing, or something that's hidden, but it even explains on the Treasury Website how they calculate the interest rate and it's just the CPI-U plus the fixed rate that has been zero for a while now.

Edit: Just found this explanation at the link below. So I guess 8.2% YoY number is not what matters, it's the relative change from the index number 6 months ago. Which of course the Sept number was down due to the SPR releases and the decreased energy costs, but the price of energy going back up this month won't be captured. Guess that will be a good tailwind for the next 6 month period that will begin calculating with the October number.

September inflation report sets I Bond variable rate at 6.48%; Social Security COLA rises to 8.7%

Annual core inflation hits 6.6%, a 40-year high. This isn’t good news for financial markets. By David Enna, Tipswatch.com Here is it, the most important Inflation Day of the year, setting in …

tipswatch.com

6.89% announced today, so a little better than the 6.48% expected due to a 0.4% fixed rate that was kind of unexpected.

 

[jbosk15808]

6.89% announced today, so a little better than the 6.48% expected due to a 0.4% fixed rate that was kind of unexpected.

it should be noted that this 6.89 rate will only apply to new I-bonds purchased between now and the next six months as the fixed rate is set at the time i-bond purchase and doesn't change for the lifetime of the bond. So if i-bonds were purchased between may 2020 and end of October 22 when the fixed rate was 0% you will "only" get ~6.48% for 6 months:

Composite Rate = Fixed Rate + (2 x inflation rate) + (inflation rate * fixed rate)

I am currently debating buying more in Jan 23 or waiting till May 23 in case fixed rate goes up more with the fed increasing rates again. However, I'm not sure the exact relationship, if any, between the fed rates and I bond fixed rates

 

[aftriathlete]

it should be noted that this 6.89 rate will only apply to new I-bonds purchased between now and the next six months as the fixed rate is set at the time i-bond purchase and doesn't change for the lifetime of the bond. So if i-bonds were purchased between may 2020 and end of October 22 when the fixed rate was 0% you will "only" get ~6.48% for 6 months:

Composite Rate = Fixed Rate + (2 x inflation rate) + (inflation rate * fixed rate)

I am currently debating buying more in Jan 23 or waiting till May 23 in case fixed rate goes up more with the fed increasing rates again. However, I'm not sure the exact relationship, if any, between the fed rates and I bond fixed rates

Good info, I didn't catch that before.

 

[nnkboykin]

Is anyone buying AMZN down here around $90 ?
I had an order trigger at 90 today.
I also have orders set at 85 and 80.

 

[aftriathlete]

Unexpert opinion, but buying any tech stocks right now to me seems like trying to catch a falling knife. So depends on your time horizon, how long you willing to hold a stock like AMZN to try to make a little money off of it. Your time horizon better be years with the current trajectory of interest rate hikes, falling earnings, rising unemployment, sticky inflation. AMZN is not immune, they just announced hiring freezes today.

My common man take on things right now is there is still money to be made out there, but it's not by normal retail investors like me. The only people making any money with all this volatility right now are the big institutions, but from what I've been reading even the hedge funds are losing money hand over fist this year, and they do this for a living. So tread carefully, but it's all a risk calculation and what risk you're willing to take with your own money. I'm waiting it out. So I think the risk right now is still to the downside, stocks and especially tech stocks still have a lot further to fall. Retail will get crushed this quarter too when Christmas spending is way way down compared to previous years. Read about the big rotation into energy recently as the word is out that energy stocks are the only place to make money right now, but anyone's guess how much more upside that has. I'm cautious of chasing momentum though.

 

[N.ID7803]

Did anyone have USWS now ACDC? Was a nice little surprise when I logged in today. It was in the dumps a month ago now I'm up.

 

[eddielasvegas]

Is anyone buying AMZN down here around $90 ?
I had an order trigger at 90 today.
I also have orders set at 85 and 80.

I am starting to get tempted at around $90/sh but still think there is some pain ahead for a few months.

It, and GOOGL (closed today at $84 with a P/E 17), are on my short watch list and I'd buy GOOGL before AMZN, but either will be worthwhile investments if your time horizon is long enough.


Eddie

 

[WiscoHoundsman]

a stock I was holding for the dividend just announced they are completely stopping it yesterday Lumen. Got to watch my position in that tank 18% today. Guess on a plus side I stopped averaging down about 2 months ago and only have a very small amount of money I play with.

 

[pew]

My goal has always been $10.68, that's an even quarter million in gains on my $16k investment.
Trying to keep the faith.
$10 will likely be a big wall with many exiting. We'll see.

I wonder if today is your day sir. If so, congratulations! I’m DCA’d at about .83 because of you—-granted at only about $500 investment, and I’ve taken a little profit along the way, but thank you, and I hope you enjoy the fruit of your labor!

Blessings
Damon


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[Broomd]

Thanks Damon! Appreciate that, and glad you got on board.
I'm watching here, PR retracing a bit. Haven't hit that 'sell' button yet. The election and earnings coming Tuesday have me curious.

Admittedly, I'm right there though, been a long haul; $12 would be great but isn't necessary at this point.

 

[Ariettabob]

Thanks Damon! Appreciate that, and glad you got on board.
I'm watching here, PR retracing a bit. Haven't hit that 'sell' button yet. The election and earnings coming Tuesday have me curious.

Admittedly, I'm right there though, been a long haul; $12 would be great but isn't necessary at this point.

Hitting that sell button is so damn hard on this one. I couldn’t do it either.

 

[ghostmoney]

Hitting that sell button is so damn hard on this one. I couldn’t do it either.

Yup same for me, at the close today I am sitting at just over $500k profit in PR, but not planning on selling until summer 2023, but do have a sell order at $16 incase. Getting harder to not sell though with that kind of profit, but hoping to pay cash for our house this summer when we move to Wyoming.

 

[pew]

Wow!!! You guys are impressive!

I was gonna sell a little more, but am waiting for earnings report to drop as I’m guessing it will be positive


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[Marshfly]

Hey guys. I'm new to Rokslide but day trade full time. Cool to have a thread like this here.

 

[Kilboars]

PR hits $11.15. This just keeps getting better.


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