The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[eddielasvegas]

Been buying into Verizon(VZ) in the last few days. At their 52 week low, solid company, makes tons of money, pays their dividend religiously, isn’t overloaded with debt. At today price it’s over a 7% dividend! It’s a long term hold for me.

I need to look into these stories but here's a couple of my comments with a quick look see on VZ (nice rhyme, huh?). Also, the image is from today's news on VZ.

7.5% is terrific but a DIV that large almost certainly has some above average risk. DIV payout ratio is a little high at 52%. It also has ~$300B in debt, which is somewhat worrisome if things go sideways.

Good luck to all reading this thread.


Eddie

P.S. Also, BH not trying to be argumentative (your money, your choice) but simply mentioning things that catch my eye and would need further research before I put my money in.

 

[svivian]

I need to look into these stories but here's a couple of my comments with a quick look see on VZ (nice rhyme, huh?). Also, the image is from today's news on VZ.

7.5% is terrific but a DIV that large almost certainly has some above average risk. DIV payout ratio is a little high at 52%. It also has ~$300B in debt, which is somewhat worrisome if things go sideways.

Good luck to all reading this thread.


Eddie

P.S. Also, BH not trying to be argumentative (your money, your choice) but simply mentioning things that catch my eye and would need further research before I put my money in.

View attachment 466124

I wonder with TMobile being so aggressive lately in their client aquisition if that plays a role in this as well.

 

[Bear_Hunter]

Not much action in this thread lately. Im guessing a lot of people are sitting it out, that’s pretty much where I’m at. I did finally pull the trigger on an I Bond purchase last night though. Been thinking about that one for a while, but didn’t want to pull the trigger because that’s cash that I wanted to have ready to dump into index funds when the dust settles and it seems like the time to get back into stocks. But then I realized that I need this money 2-3 years from now for a house purchase when I retire so I better diversify somewhat and go for some safe money (must keep the bond for a year, then between 1-5 years if you cash out you pay back the last 3 months of interest made.) So I’m treating the I Bond pretty much like a high interest savings account or money market account.

JP Morgan trading desk said in the last day or two that we should expect a bear market rally in the next month or two, but 6-12 month outlook is still recession. I’m not interested in “trading” any more so I’ll wait til I can invest.

Same here, just pulled the trigger on $10k of i-bonds to get 6 months of that 9.6%. Looks like it'll be around 6.5%-ish come November, which is still good considering literally anywhere else I've been putting money has a negative instantly associated with it.

 

[aftriathlete]

Same here, just pulled the trigger on $10k of i-bonds to get 6 months of that 9.6%. Looks like it'll be around 6.5%-ish come November, which is still good considering literally anywhere else I've been putting money has a negative instantly associated with it.

Honestly I think it's BS that the rate is dropping to 6.5 anyway. Inflation hasn't eased almost at all, less than 1%, since May. In fact when they published this current May 1 - Nov 1 rate inflation was lower than it is now, the peak wasn't til June or July. I think the treasury is dropping the rate to 6.5 because they're already starting to get killed on servicing all their debt as interest rates rise, and too many people are piling into these I Bonds. But maybe we'll get a surprise on Nov 1, I think that 6.5ish is just the expected rate. And 6.5 is still pretty good for a safe 6 month return.

 

[eddielasvegas]

Honestly I think it's BS that the rate is dropping to 6.5 anyway. Inflation hasn't eased almost at all, less than 1%, since May. In fact when they published this current May 1 - Nov 1 rate inflation was lower than it is now, the peak wasn't til June or July. I think the treasury is dropping the rate to 6.5 because they're already starting to get killed on servicing all their debt as interest rates rise, and too many people are piling into these I Bonds. But maybe we'll get a surprise on Nov 1, I think that 6.5ish is just the expected rate. And 6.5 is still pretty good for a safe 6 month return.

Figures don't lie but liars do figures. That sums up the Gubment generated CPI in four words.

It's only down, in part, thanks to SJ releasing oil from our SPR. Man, what will that man not do to make himself and his party look good. I'd be shocked if inflation does not go up a lot over the coming months as the winter heats up (bad joke, I know), interest rates continue upward, the war in Ukraine continues to wreak its havoc and the recession starts to take hold more deeply.


Eddie


P.S. The only surprise for I-Bonds on Nov. 1 is if the gubment sets a fixed rate above 0%. I thought about buying those but the lock in period and other restrictions was just not worth it to make a $500-ish dollars on a relatively small amount. Now if I could buy I-Bonds like TIPS, well that's a whole different story.

 

[JungleDan]

PR poised to hit double digits- anybody care to share when they are exiting?

 

[Theringworm]

PR poised to hit double digits- anybody care to share when they are exiting?

I was willing to pull the trigger on double digits $11-12, but I am young, and I am contemplating this as a long hold. It's only money.

 

[ETtikka]

I am focused on the 10yr rate, market seems like it will need more artificial fed pumping at this point for a decent rise
The fed is in a tight spot

 

[Broomd]

PR poised to hit double digits- anybody care to share when they are exiting?

My goal has always been $10.68, that's an even quarter million in gains on my $16k investment.
Trying to keep the faith.
$10 will likely be a big wall with many exiting. We'll see.

 

[Jagger0502]

Anyone have any opinions on Spirit Airline stock? Seems like it could be a good deal if the buy goes through. I am a total noob at this, what am I missing? Trading at $19.85 currently with a $33.50 buyout.

Just heard that Spirit is being bought out by Jet Blue

 

[Broomd]

PR/CDEV = $9.98 this am...getting sporty out there.
https://www.marketbeat.com/r/1838447

Citigroup sees a $12 PT and 'buy.'

Congrats to the longs, helluva ride.

 

[Kilboars]

PR/CDEV = $9.98 this am...getting sporty out there.
https://www.marketbeat.com/r/1838447

Citigroup sees a $12 PT and 'buy.'

Congrats to the longs, helluva ride.

Hit $10.17 so far


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[safarihunter]

Hit $10.17 so far


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I realize this perhaps wasn't the smartest play, but I sold out of enough PR to cover everything I've put in it. In my limited time trading, I've stuck out too long a few times already and had the bottom drop out on me. So while I could have held and continued to make more money, I'm pretty happy with already having guaranteed a profit while holding my remaining shares. Feels good to know I won't lose money no matter what on this.

 

[DenverCountryBoy]

I realize this perhaps wasn't the smartest play, but I sold out of enough PR to cover everything I've put in it. In my limited time trading, I've stuck out too long a few times already and had the bottom drop out on me. So while I could have held and continued to make more money, I'm pretty happy with already having guaranteed a profit while holding my remaining shares. Feels good to know I won't lose money no matter what on this.

Nothing wrong with that at all. I recovered my seed money a long time ago.

 

[Ferrulewax]

Wish I had hopped on the CDEV/PR train earlier with you guys. Still done pretty well

 

[safarihunter]

Wish I had hopped on the CDEV/PR train earlier with you guys. Still done pretty well

I definitely wish the same thing. I even thought during early 2020 "I should invest in ____", but then never did anything until part way through last year. Hopped on CDEV in the low $7s, so not even in the same realm of profits as those below a buck.

But, profit is profit...

 

[CorbLand]

Wish I had hopped on the CDEV/PR train earlier with you guys. Still done pretty well

I sold in the 2's.

Live and learn so they say.

 

[CHSD]

I realize this perhaps wasn't the smartest play, but I sold out of enough PR to cover everything I've put in it. In my limited time trading, I've stuck out too long a few times already and had the bottom drop out on me. So while I could have held and continued to make more money, I'm pretty happy with already having guaranteed a profit while holding my remaining shares. Feels good to know I won't lose money no matter what on this.

If it makes you feel any better I want to put a $1,000 into CDEV when it was .34 a share during covid. I talked to my wife about it and she did not want too. That lesson is a painful one....

 

[aftriathlete]

Before anything else, kudos again to all in the PR trade. My bet back at $8.50 didn't pay out as well as waiting would have.

Now my question is, anyone pay attention to I Bonds really understand why all the news stories are saying the expected rate announced on 1 Nov is going to be 6.48%? The interest rate is supposed to be a direct reflection of the CPI-Urban non-adjusted, which the last published for September was 8.2%. I don't think they'll have the October CPI-U by the time they announce the new rate on 1 Nov, so why wouldn't the rate be 8.2%? There must be something I'm missing, or something that's hidden, but it even explains on the Treasury Website how they calculate the interest rate and it's just the CPI-U plus the fixed rate that has been zero for a while now.

Edit: Just found this explanation at the link below. So I guess 8.2% YoY number is not what matters, it's the relative change from the index number 6 months ago. Which of course the Sept number was down due to the SPR releases and the decreased energy costs, but the price of energy going back up this month won't be captured. Guess that will be a good tailwind for the next 6 month period that will begin calculating with the October number.

September inflation report sets I Bond variable rate at 6.48%; Social Security COLA rises to 8.7%

Annual core inflation hits 6.6%, a 40-year high. This isn’t good news for financial markets. By David Enna, Tipswatch.com Here is it, the most important Inflation Day of the year, setting in …

tipswatch.com

 

[Idaboy]

My goal has always been $10.68, that's an even quarter million in gains on my $16k investment.
Trying to keep the faith.
$10 will likely be a big wall with many exiting. We'll see.

Might consider getting an option collar on that