Backtest?
Didn’t you see the disclaimer at the beginning of this thread…Past performance is no indication of future returns- grin. ( one I totally agree with)
Personally, I’m divesting a huge part of my portfolio in early January. I may keep some and balance with protection, I dunno- doing the tax calcs over the next couple of days.
There is way to much risk in these markets right now with;
1) the looming Fed cuts,
2) a weak president and China/Russia poised to take advantage of that
3) huge over performance across the board in the markets. I‘ve seen the reversion to the mean too many times.
4) The supply chain mess is NOT clearing up anytime soon especially with the way the current woke Dem regimes want to solve it by unionizing truckers, etc
5) Looming energy crisises due to politics in CA, New England, etc
6) Covid as a tool- when the current admin gives a german co money to build a factory in the US for future production of Covid pills it tells me the current regimes mindset- continue with the Covid restrictions well into 2024- not good
I think a guy can make money in some of the oil plays as I think a big spike will happen in 2022 but otherwise Im scaling back my risk.
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