The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Trevor73402]

I'm not a FOREX trader, but I can tell you that his technicals analysis does not take into account the initial cause of the oil bear market, the Russian - Saudi price war. Then the 'rona came along and punched demand in dick and the Russians and Saudis decided to play nice for now.

With the cause of the bear market resolved (for now) and demand slowly returning, price/barrel should slowly rise. If there is a second wave of Covid this winter, oil price could slide on decreased demand, but if a vaccine comes out before the second wave hits, oil could jump.

I don't see a second wave really impacting too much because the American people won't go for another lock down. It will fall on deaf ears and there is no way to enforce it when entire state populations refuse to abide. By the time winter comes, most of the fear surrounding the virus will have faded (for most people). Once we get 3-4 weeks of summer travel behind us, production will start to ramp back up, along with the price.

 

[DenverCountryBoy]

I don't see a second wave really impacting too much because the American people won't go for another lock down. It will fall on deaf ears and there is no way to enforce it when entire state populations refuse to abide. By the time winter comes, most of the fear surrounding the virus will have faded (for most people). Once we get 3-4 weeks of summer travel behind us, production will start to ramp back up, along with the price.

Yeah, I don't see a second lockdown happening. But I could see a second wave leading to more people working from home again and less travel and events leading to a softening of demand.

 

[007hunter]

No disrespect to Paul, but his view appears to be straight from technical analysis. There are many factors that control oil prices and looking at technicals only, paints a small picture. I’m not saying he’s right or wrong, just it’s best to remain flexible to market and geopolitical conditions which are ever changing. One bomb dropped in the Middle East could send oil to the moon. One tweet from Trump could tank it. Etc.
I trade off technicals primarily too, and if it was as easy as looking at a few indicators we’d all be rich. Do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk level.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Thank you for asking. As we all know it investing involves risk and prediction is based on personal bias and what the tape in the market is saying. I have a special way I read the chart and interpret what the market is saying exactly.

The current OIL PRICE on my chart is at $33.37. Using the Fibonacci level, Price is currently at a key chart level $33.37, using Fibonacci retrace, other Resistance key chart levels on my chart are $38.17 and $43.21. At level $43.21 there is a 'window' or 'gap' to the left, that is, this a price action that is very significant, (Price action traders would understand this price signal better). I believe (FROM MY MARKET GUT FEEL) price wants to rally and close the 'window' before it resumes its initial bearish move. The long term trend for the OIL MARKET is BEARISH. Do not buy oil according to my personal opinion from what I have logically interpreted from my charts.

I HOPE I HAVE MADE SOME SENSE AND IF YOU HAVE ANY MORE QUESTIONS, KINDLY ASK. CHEERS!

Yours sincerely,
Paul.

Hey Paul and Everyone else,
I started doing some more research on USO (oil etf), which I own. I bought in before it reverse spilt a few weeks ago and I ended up at $17.09 a share and I’m about to unload the hell out of it, so beware.
Why? Recently USO has now been denied the ability to trade futures in the oil market! RBC (Royal bank of Canada) was the futures commission merchant for the futures and has completely backed out. Basically freezing USO from playing with their fund.
interestingly enough and a piece of knowledge I learned was this...
USO is a commodity fund that doesn’t actually own any oil. Before now it just bought contracts Of oil and rolled them each month. So, when oil went negative there were legit reasons: no demand, Russia-Saudi, etc...
And then there was USO. Folks loaded up thinking there was a rebound coming. USO had to buy futures that literally covered 25% of the May market! When they had to roll May and no one bought those, it left a huge gap in the market and really, really helped it go neg.
Did USO cause the negative pricing? Most likely yes.
Now they changed philosophies and bought a bunch of monthly futures Contracts out to June 2021. What happens to those contracts and the volume of investors in USO? Do they find a different merchant and continue? Do they liquidate each month and evaporate like the previous 20 years of the fund?
Ignorance could prop the whole thing up, I don’t know. Seems like a common theme in this market. Or were stimulus checks meant to do this, to help prop up the market? If you look at a graph of institutional involvement in the market compared to retail customers, it’s considerably more retail. Institutions are not buying in.
I hope this helps and check my facts.

These are interesting times. Don’t be just another robinhood. Due diligence folks.

 

[gearguywb]

Interesting times to say the least. IMHO, there are too many unknowns stacked on top of one another for oil to stay where it is.

Mideast crisis? Travel resumes? Demand jumps appreciably? Anti drilling president elected? Saudi or Russia blink first?

Pick one.....

Any of them (and a lot more) could cause a real push on pricing). I still believe the infrastructure stocks (ET, etc) are a good bet as they do not own oil. There income is derived from moving, storage, etc.

 

[back country]

Hey Paul and Everyone else,
I started doing some more research on USO (oil etf), which I own. I bought in before it reverse spilt a few weeks ago and I ended up at $17.09 a share and I’m about to unload the hell out of it, so beware.
Why? Recently USO has now been denied the ability to trade futures in the oil market! RBC (Royal bank of Canada) was the futures commission merchant for the futures and has completely backed out. Basically freezing USO from playing with their fund.
interestingly enough and a piece of knowledge I learned was this...
USO is a commodity fund that doesn’t actually own any oil. Before now it just bought contracts Of oil and rolled them each month. So, when oil went negative there were legit reasons: no demand, Russia-Saudi, etc...
And then there was USO. Folks loaded up thinking there was a rebound coming. USO had to buy futures that literally covered 25% of the May market! When they had to roll May and no one bought those, it left a huge gap in the market and really, really helped it go neg.
Did USO cause the negative pricing? Most likely yes.
Now they changed philosophies and bought a bunch of monthly futures Contracts out to June 2021. What happens to those contracts and the volume of investors in USO? Do they find a different merchant and continue? Do they liquidate each month and evaporate like the previous 20 years of the fund?
Ignorance could prop the whole thing up, I don’t know. Seems like a common theme in this market. Or were stimulus checks meant to do this, to help prop up the market? If you look at a graph of institutional involvement in the market compared to retail customers, it’s considerably more retail. Institutions are not buying in.
I hope this helps and check my facts.

These are interesting times. Don’t be just another robinhood. Due diligence folks.

This is interesting. Care to share a link to where you found this info? I’ve been close to pulling the trigger on some uso calls (options) lately. Was actually planning to tomorrow. But now I’m rethinking....


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[BrokenArrow]

This is interesting. Care to share a link to where you found this info? I’ve been close to pulling the trigger on some uso calls (options) lately. Was actually planning to tomorrow. But now I’m rethinking....


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Here is just one of many articles. It scratches the surface. There are many others that go farther in depth. Search USO RBC.
And to note that after hours on Friday, USO dropped $1.03

Redirect Notice

 

[back country]

Thanks for the link. I’ve been reading up on uso just now, including that link you mentioned, and I’m glad I didn’t dive in last week. Seems like in the short term you could still make some money on them, but they’ve now got an extra layer of volatility on top of oil prices that fluctuate widely for seemingly no reason sometimes. Too many variables that easily affect their value to get involved now...


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[huntaholic123]

CDEV looking promising pre market. Whats everyone eyeing today?

 

[cmahoney]

Looking at UAVS


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[Danny Hoey]

CDEV looking promising pre market. Whats everyone eyeing today?

Nothing really. I think I'll just sit back and watch it grow!

 

[EastMT]

Dang it, I got an alert to buy LK Friday but it was too sketchy for me. Oops.

 

[huntaholic123]

Dang it, I got an alert to buy LK Friday but it was too sketchy for me. Oops.

I was looking at LK last week but just didn't have the balls to dive in. Cant catch em all

 

[Okhotnik]

No disrespect to Paul, but his view appears to be straight from technical analysis. There are many factors that control oil prices and looking at technicals only, paints a small picture. I’m not saying he’s right or wrong, just it’s best to remain flexible to market and geopolitical conditions which are ever changing. One bomb dropped in the Middle East could send oil to the moon. One tweet from Trump could tank it. Etc.
I trade off technicals primarily too, and if it was as easy as looking at a few indicators we’d all be rich. Do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk level.

Dr. Fauci just came out and advised to open economy after stating a few weeks ago the US should be shut down another year and the market tanked.

Look at the market today. So much for fibonacci and other tech analysis.

 

[Okhotnik]

Thanks for the link. I’ve been reading up on uso just now, including that link you mentioned, and I’m glad I didn’t dive in last week. Seems like in the short term you could still make some money on them, but they’ve now got an extra layer of volatility on top of oil prices that fluctuate widely for seemingly no reason sometimes. Too many variables that easily affect their value to get involved now...


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I phugged up and bought into shady USO a month ago without doing my due diligence. . Im still hanging on to it waiting for a recovery to recover losses and will dump it.

I think GUSH is a better high risk gamble IMO

SAVE, JetBlue and UAL finally paying off. I wish I bought another few thousand shares 10 days ago lol

 

[back country]

Don’t misconstrue my liking your post... I don’t like that you have uso when you’d rather not. Just that you mentioned gush...I think they’re the much safer buy right now if the two.


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[Doc Holliday]

Picked up some NVDA @ $350

 

[dieNqvrs]

Bought CLBS & TLRY this morning.

Sold small VTIQW to lighten load and lock in some profits.

 

[Okhotnik]

What a hot day.! Sold some airlines , biotech and oil stocks for very good flips. SAVE,SM, JETBLU, UAL, QEP, REI great returns

Decided to move my 401k last Tuesday into market again for a week for some profits and will pull out again today or tomorrow. Allocated some of portfolio into foreign market because of low share prices ( 20 per cent of portfolio) . Its Up 60k in a week so can't complain.

Easy to forget the down days lol

Lots of positive news for the economy

 

[huntaholic123]

Anyone holding TLSS? Making some solid gains today. Some bold predictions on stock forecast. Read a possible buyout by amazon but nothing official. Might be worth a look