The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[Beendare]

Oil may not be underperforming. Natural gas will be powering the electricity generation for the AI data centers. No small potatoes when you see how much capacity is planned to come on line

Maybe, I dunno. I had owned Oil stocks and ETF's in the past but lightened up on them a few months ago. I had a big position for a couple years in MLPX [Pipeline ETF] which did good....but it was fizzling- chart was looking weak- so I sold in the mid $62 range. (It's at a decent buy in price now mid $59)

My thought is Oil can do OK, low single digit return but the long term investment in Oil and oil projects just isn't there. It seems none of those companies want to commit $Billions and then 3 years down the line we get another Joe Biden/Gavin Newsom who will wreck the industry. We need more refining....and pipelines to New England- nope, not happening.

Heck Ford....and now GM just figured it out that the Democrats sold them a load of Hooey with their silly Green Initiative and they lost their hind ends [Taxpayers took it in the shorts too] on All electric vehicles.

My opinion could be way off on Oil as I only half assed pay attention to the industry now that I don't have a chip in that game. One thing is for sure, Businesses and Investors- would have it easier if we had a cohesive 'Move America forward' policy we could count on vs the turn on a dime with each different admin.

 

[Fowl Play]

If you're wondering why your portfolio just dipped a little...just an example of real time stock market information.

View attachment 950241

I was going to say, best place to get stock news right now is that truth social account… (not being political, just stating the facts of what is causing the swings right now)

 

[lgoodroe_12]

Following.

 

[2531usmc]

I was going to say, best place to get stock news right now is that truth social account… (not being political, just stating the facts of what is causing the swings right now)

I’ve heard the term “truth social account” but don’t know much about it. Can you provide a little more background and how it supports our investment decisions?

 

[nettereo16]

I’ve heard the term “truth social account” but don’t know much about it. Can you provide a little more background and how it supports our investment decisions?

Trump, love him or hate him, has become the primary driver of the massive market swings in the past few months. Since his April tariff announcement, to last friday PM’s 100% china tariff, to Sunday’s China’s going to be just fine, to yesterday’s soybean spat - he announces his policy first on his social media site Truth Social via “tweet”. It’s always posted there first and the market immediately reacts violently one way or the other. It’s hard to keep up!

 

[CorbLand]

I am curious who here uses individual stock investments as a major part of their portfolio dollars? Or do you do it for fun with small percentages, while the large majority of your portfolio is set on a different strategy?

For me, with individual stock picks I will never be able to beat the >10% average return of SP500 or total market indexes, so that has been my main strategy since taking over my own investing several years ago.

About 80% of my retirement is in SP500 tracking funds. Then a little over 10% is in blue chip single stocks. The rest is in more risky individual stocks.

 

[noisy]

I'm sure

Trump, love him or hate him, has become the primary driver of the massive market swings in the past few months. Since his April tariff announcement, to last friday PM’s 100% china tariff, to Sunday’s China’s going to be just fine, to yesterday’s soybean spat - he announces his policy first on his social media site Truth Social via “tweet”. It’s always posted there first and the market immediately reacts violently one way or the other. It’s hard to keep up!

I'm sure there are a lot of people making a lot of money off the swings, but I think ignoring Trump's posts is a better strategy for the individual investor. All these companies and countries know they can wait Trump out. "We're going to invest trillions in the USA!" Yeah sure you are. Trump is 80 and obese. He might very well not even make it to the end of his term. I believe things will largely return to where they were when he's gone in terms of trade policy. Not all the way but mostly, because the world economy evolved to this point for a reason. You can't go back to the 50s and make America a manufacturing power again. People don't want a dirty factory in their town polluting the air and water, etc. Those days are gone IMO. The question is how much damage vs. benefit will come from the Trump years. Tariffs don't have a strong track record, as everybody knows. OTOH I do believe there were some imbalances that needed to be dealt with. We live in interesting times.

 

[Danny Hoey]

My 457 is all in index funds. Brokerage account is 70% individual, 20% btc and 10% Voo. Roth is where I make my risky bets on individual stocks.

 

[Fowl Play]

About 80% of my retirement is in SP500 tracking funds. Then a little over 10% is in blue chip single stocks. The rest is in more risky individual stocks.

I may be preaching to the choir, but just something to keep in mind. SP500 funds are heavily concentrated in the top 10 holdings. Can be 35%+ in the top 10 alone depending on what fund you have. It’s not as “heavily diversified” as one may think. The major tech players are feast or famine for the whole fund essentially.

That being said, I have a huge portion of my retirement invested in the S&P 500 like you, just want to mention it as many people think that the S&P is this very diversified fund and then they start “stock picking” from there to add some more risk to their portfolio. For many, the percent allocation of the S&P is already pretty risky, and they overexpose themselves stock picking from there.

 

[CorbLand]

I may be preaching to the choir, but just something to keep in mind. SP500 funds are heavily concentrated in the top 10 holdings. Can be 35%+ in the top 10 alone depending on what fund you have. It’s not as “heavily diversified” as one may think. The major tech players are feast or famine for the whole fund essentially.

That being said, I have a huge portion of my retirement invested in the S&P 500 like you, just want to mention it as many people think that the S&P is this very diversified fund and then they start “stock picking” from there to add some more risk to their portfolio. For many, the percent allocation of the S&P is already pretty risky, and they overexpose themselves stock picking from there.

I am 30 plus years from retirement so I want my stuff to be more risky. When I get closer, I will start pulling my funds and putting them in way more diversified funds than the SP500 trackers.

Most of my individual stocks were bought back in 2020 when everything crashed. There was very little risk going into strong companies back then. I have Google at 134. Phillips 66 at 63.50. Apple at 112.

Google I bought right before the split and about doubled down when it dropped right after. I should have.

 

[Montana Slim]

I may be preaching to the choir, but just something to keep in mind. SP500 funds are heavily concentrated in the top 10 holdings. Can be 35%+ in the top 10 alone depending on what fund you have. It’s not as “heavily diversified” as one may think. The major tech players are feast or famine for the whole fund essentially.

That being said, I have a huge portion of my retirement invested in the S&P 500 like you, just want to mention it as many people think that the S&P is this very diversified fund and then they start “stock picking” from there to add some more risk to their portfolio. For many, the percent allocation of the S&P is already pretty risky, and they overexpose themselves stock picking from there.

I am not super knowledgeable... but this seems like a very good point, especially with how tech heavy the top companies are now

 

[WiscoHoundsman]

There are options for equal weight s&p 500 indexes that would help mitigate risk of the top heavy companies.

 

[Coveyleader]

AMD taking off, Nvidia holding around 180. Really hard laying of Nvidia right now (buying some) watching AMD skyrocket.

 

[TaperPin]

Trump, love him or hate him, has become the primary driver of the massive market swings in the past few months. Since his April tariff announcement, to last friday PM’s 100% china tariff, to Sunday’s China’s going to be just fine, to yesterday’s soybean spat - he announces his policy first on his social media site Truth Social via “tweet”. It’s always posted there first and the market immediately reacts violently one way or the other. It’s hard to keep up!

His tweet references importing cooking oil, which in past years was used cooking oil imported for use in biofuel projects, but that has already ended so he’s yelling at airplanes.

When unused cooking oil is imported it isn't from China.

Imagine that - the entire market reacted to nonsense.

 

[MountainTracker]

Sold my CLSK doubled it, probably held too long but that’s how it goes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[noisy]

I got a bunch of Nvidia and Google from my dad when he passed last year. It was in a trust so the cost basis did not reset. He bought Google at the IPO and I think NVDA at $17. The capital gains are crazy. It's a good problem to have but I really have no idea what to do. It's so hard to sell it but I'm very exposed to a lot of risk. I know, First World Problems.

Whoever was giving him investment advice knew what the hell they were doing, I'll say that.

 

[eddielasvegas]

I got a bunch of Nvidia and Google from my dad when he passed last year. It was in a trust so the cost basis did not reset. He bought Google at the IPO and I think NVDA at $17. The capital gains are crazy. It's a good problem to have but I really have no idea what to do. It's so hard to sell it but I'm very exposed to a lot of risk. I know, First World Problems.

Whoever was giving him investment advice knew what the hell they were doing, I'll say that.

I remember when GOOG went public in late 2004, IIRC. At the time I remember thinking, they give it (search and email) away for free so how much money could they make? That should tell you how smart I am.

No step up usually means in an irrevocable trust. Not trying to pry, but man losing the step up basis for that kind of gain is gonna be costly. And the last entity you want to give a dime more than you have to is Uncle Sam.


Eddie

 

[Pharmseller]

Almost all of my retirement is IRA or 401(k). Pretty fortunate there.

 

[Beendare]

I may be preaching to the choir, but just something to keep in mind. SP500 funds are heavily concentrated in the top 10 holdings. Can be 35%+ in the top 10 alone depending on what fund you have. It’s not as “heavily diversified” as one may think. The major tech players are feast or famine for the whole fund essentially.

That being said, I have a huge portion of my retirement invested in the S&P 500 like you, just want to mention it as many people think that the S&P is this very diversified fund and then they start “stock picking” from there to add some more risk to their portfolio. For many, the percent allocation of the S&P is already pretty risky, and they overexpose themselves stock picking from there.

Good post. Add to that^

....the current S&P index is tech weighted. The tech sector will continue to outperform over a long time horizon.

Then add; the folks selecting this S&P index rejigger it regularly- dumping the under performers and adding the over achievers. This has the effect of a better return on investment.

I haven't looked to see if you can buy an S&P ETF that is evenly weighted and less concentrated.
For example; in the Tech ETF space you can get VGT thats heavily weighted to 6 stocks.....or you can buy QTEC that is evenly weighted to the entire space- they hold a max of 3% in any one stock. I really like that one.

 

[bow_dozer]

Almost all of my retirement is IRA or 401(k). Pretty fortunate there.

Roth conversions could pencil depending on age. Blessing for your heirs as withdrawals won’t be taxable.