The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[safarihunter]

When does all the new drilling begin? Oil production so far and prices going into next year are pretty flat.

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Don't know about oil, but I know over '24 natural gas rigs were generally shutting down to cut supply because prices were so low.

 

[safarihunter]

Feeling pretty happy about shifting to nothing but cash and MSTY for some dividends. Have started dipping my toe into some puts as well, not using a lot of money but I've made 1 days swings of +50% and +100% last week.

 

[IdahoElk]

And the Fed is currently buying the 10yr bond market, crash off for today, go fishing!

 

[BBob]

When does all the new drilling begin?

It likely doesn’t regardless of what Trump’s campaign slogan is/was. How is he going to convince producers to cut their own throats in this market?

 

[TaperPin]

It likely doesn’t regardless of what Trump’s campaign slogan is/was. How is he going to convince producers to cut their own throats in this market?

That makes sense.

 

[Crowmangler]

Feeling pretty happy about shifting to nothing but cash and MSTY for some dividends. Have started dipping my toe into some puts as well, not using a lot of money but I've made 1 days swings of +50% and +100% last week.

This question may have been asked already but do you or anyone else have any recommended sources for information on learning how to do options? (for beginners)

 

[Marshfly]

This question may have been asked already but do you or anyone else have any recommended sources for information on learning how to do options? (for beginners)

Just start buying this guy's books. Then fill in the blanks on Youtube. But don't be copying anyone's strategy. Develop your own. I trade 100% index options. I do zero buy and hold and zero shares.

The consistent money is made in selling spreads. Not buying options.

Mark D. Wolfinger: books, biography, latest update

Follow Mark D. Wolfinger and explore their bibliography from Amazon's Mark D. Wolfinger Author Page.

www.amazon.com

 

[eddielasvegas]

You beat me to it @MountainTracker.

Looks rather ugly for Monday morning IMHO.


Eddie

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And on the bright side....


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Shows you how wicked smaht I am...not pretty but hardly carnage in the streets like I thought.

NASDAQ and Russell down a little and VIX is up but I sure expected big drops across all major indices.



Eddie

 

[MountainTracker]

Shows you how wicked smaht I am...not pretty but hardly carnage in the streets like I thought.

NASDAQ and Russell down a little and VIX is up but I sure expected big drops across all major indices.



Eddie

Yeah I was bracing for much worse pullback, so thankful that didn’t happen.

I do need to learn some skills like the smart guys to be able to take advantage of days like today.


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[safarihunter]

This question may have been asked already but do you or anyone else have any recommended sources for information on learning how to do options? (for beginners)

Follow @Marshfly 's recommendations over anything that I say. Only have seen him post on the internet, so it could all be lying, but it seems like he makes a living doing this stuff. Like I said in my post, I'm only dipping my toes because I don't know enough to be confident in making any big trades. My previous experience with options showed it is a good way to lose money really quickly. So this time around I'm keeping the money small.

 

[Marshfly]

Follow @Marshfly 's recommendations over anything that I say. Only have seen him post on the internet, so it could all be lying, but it seems like he makes a living doing this stuff. Like I said in my post, I'm only dipping my toes because I don't know enough to be confident in making any big trades. My previous experience with options showed it is a good way to lose money really quickly. So this time around I'm keeping the money small.

Two ways to make money in options.

1. Learn to trade technically with shares or futures first so the greeks don't mess it all up. Once you can make money there, MAYBE, MAYBE, go to options. Don't learn to trade AND learn how options work at the same time.

2. Learn the greeks and HOW and WHY options are priced the way they are. Then design trades to take advantage of the inefficiencies in the market in a methodical, mechanical, statistically relevant manner. (This is what I do.)

100% of my trading is automated and designed in advance. I do zero manual trading. I design trades that have a positive expected value based on the statistical way that option prices work. Then I build bots to place those trades for me. Then I don't touch stuff until something gets outside of what should be happening based on my analysis.

Edit to add: if your brain is not the type to understand and kind of geek out over datasets, number crunching, statistics, etc., then options probably aren't for you.

 

[TaperPin]

IPOs aren’t interesting to me, but Newsmax is so emotionally loved by half the population I wish I paid enough attention to get first in line yesterday.

 

[Gutshotem]

This question may have been asked already but do you or anyone else have any recommended sources for information on learning how to do options? (for beginners)

Understanding Options by Michael Sincere is a great book to start with.

 

[Wrangler13]

Looking bleak now. Will see if it bounces back tomorrow.

 

[AK Troutbum]

S&P futures are down 3.6%, Nasdaq down 4.5%, and the Dow down almost 1100 points. Things could turn around tomorrow, but definitely starting out behind the 8 ball.


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[william schmaltz]

When does all the new drilling begin? Oil production so far and prices going into next year are pretty flat.

It likely won’t. $2 gas is always a big promise of the Trump campaign. Gas is about $3.25 today and oil is hanging around $70. The break even point for new drilling is around $65/bbl. If we hit $2 fuel, we’re looking at $50 oil and every rig in the patch stacked in the weeds. You can have $2 gas or “drill baby drill”, but not both.

They are talking about bombing Iran, so that would drive oil back over $100 essentially overnight. And gas prices back to $4-5/gal. Which I guess then we will have drill baby drill. And maybe after 3 years of that we would be producing enough to get fuel back under $3.

The other most likely option is the government buys big oil contracts for $75-$80/bbl to keep new production rolling while keeping market prices low. You know, government subsidies and tax handouts for those struggling oil executives.

I am interested to see if companies actually invest in and mobilize to ANWR if oil prices stay below $75 and given the fact that the problem with executive orders is that all of them can be undone just as quickly with another executive order in a few years…….

 

[2531usmc]

Feeling pretty happy about shifting to nothing but cash and MSTY for some dividends. Have started dipping my toe into some puts as well, not using a lot of money but I've made 1 days swings of +50% and +100% last week.

I’m hesitant to shift into cash. Hold too much too long and buying power attrits due to inflation.

 

[Beendare]

Bad day when I went from up 6% on the year to only up 3% in one day!
I'm selling the last 1/3rd I had in Money markets....expecting another leg down as soon as next week to get that $$ in the markets.

The big name Tech companies getting hit hard.....but stuff like my BRK-B is only off .33% and up pretty good for the year. It will be interesting to see what Buffet does with his cash hoard.

 

[safarihunter]

I’m hesitant to shift into cash. Hold too much too long and buying power attrits due to inflation.

It hurts buying power a lot less than the current drops in the market. Admittedly, I am trying what is generally considered a fool's errand of timing the market. But the goal isn't so much to guess at the actual bottom of the market as it is to wait for confirmation that it has turned back up (confirmation primarily being multiple days of strong positive movement with high volume to back it up).

Ultimately all of what I'm talking about is play money, and I do still have my IRA and 401k invested as is typically advised. So I shouldn't have said "nothing but cash and MSTY", but the regular investment vehicles largely run themselves and I don't actively manage them, so I don't tend to think of them when I'm reading on this thread.

 

[HuntHarder]

Bad day when I went from up 6% on the year to only up 3% in one day!
I'm selling the last 1/3rd I had in Money markets....expecting another leg down as soon as next week to get that $$ in the markets.

The big name Tech companies getting hit hard.....but stuff like my BRK-B is only off .33% and up pretty good for the year. It will be interesting to see what Buffet does with his cash hoard.

Yeah, without BRK.b, my year would look a lot worse. COST and VZ somehow managed not to lose any as well. Brk.b will never be my huge gainer, but time has shown that it is a reliable horse.