The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[BBob]

Rough Monday. Tariffs and recession talk on the menu.
TSLA cracks, in no mans land. Gap to fill. Will we see $220? SPY/ES hit long term trendlines.
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TSLA bears won that one and yes we saw the $220. Another gap covered and sitting on support here. If this area doesn't hold we might get a real bargain at $180

 

[SWFLhntr]

2050

Buy Bro. This is opportunity.

 

[Throwin Darts]

I’d get my money out of that target date crap and spread it across some good mutual funds. You’ll be buying at a discount right now


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You say spread it across some “good mutual funds”. Like what? He may already be invested in some through the target date fund. You know nothing about what he has but it’s crap because it’s a target date fund?

The vast majority of actively managed funds underperform the indexes over the long run. Should he go out and grab a handful of them and hope that the handful he grabs are all outliers that outperform?

Considering he’s also considering market timing, which is another losing proposition, a target date fund sounds even more appropriate for him.

 

[Beendare]

I don't own TSLA except in ETF's. I appreciate insights from @BBob as a Technical trader. They say everything you need to know about a stock is in the charts. I appreciate the info a chart provides but don't think thats 100% true....it doesn't show future earnings....or possible political changes/ market conditions like now that DO affect a stock price.

Many companies abandoned their prioritizing climate as a strategy that was a drag on earnings- thats a good thing for the owners of the stock of those companies in the long run.

I get that when the fervor of Climate Change was a governmental priority Tesla did well. Sure, the gov was supplementing every car sold with $7500 of taxpayer dollars in the form of a tax break. Is TSLA still worth more than every other car manufacturer combined? I doubt it.

They say it's a tech company and I have not analyzed all of the components; Batteries, Solar installs, etc. I do know the $60,000 solar installs with power walls have almost disappeared around where I live. People just aren't doing it. Folks still installing solar as it's mandated by Ca on construction and remodels but the systems are mostly scaled way back and there is a lot of competition.

The Tesla purchases have dropped like a rock.....partially due to no rebates...and partially due to the virtue signalers buying those have stopped due to Musk being out of favor with them.

My point, I don't see how Tesla is going to outperform here going forward....and I wouldn't touch it. I do regret not seeing how this worked out as I would have bought puts on it- down over 45% in the short term- ouch.

 

[TaperPin]

Standard disclaimer that I don't necessarily know what I'm talking about, but I moved mostly to cash (and MSTY) a little before the current drops. I decided to start reading about how to actually do some of this trading (crazy idea after messing around for a year or two and having mixed success/failure).

What I read gave some indicators for when a market has likely topped. One of the main ones was seeing a number of profit taking days (days where the trading volume is higher than average and prices are moving lower) over the course of 6 weeks or so. By my (amateur) read of the charts, we hit four or five profit taking days over January and early February. I think we're in for a correction here, and I'm planning on largely staying out of the markets for a little bit. I've done plenty of trying to catch a "falling knife", and I'm hoping to avoid that this time. If I'm correct and we enter a bear market for a while, the goal is to watch the indexes for a couple days in a row of positive movement with higher than average volume as the sign that things might be turning.

I’m just a rookie playing with a little extra fun money outside of our scheduled investments, with an interest in overall market moves, but so far I have been lucky to get in on a dip before a feel good government announcement and out after the bump it created. Since then the market has been a pretty steady drop. When a “good” portfolio is lucky to be growing by 1/10th of a percent every day, getting out on a declining market made me feel smarter than I am. There seems to be an excess of investor confidence that will continue to dwindle as consumer confidence and spending drops, combined with business supply chains continuing to struggle with on again off again tariffs. Many see the government doubling down on them for at least most of this year. Capital expenditures to create new domestic capacity are a year away from making a dent if started today, and many are hesitating since the cost of capital isn’t as cheap as it was not long ago and the total additional costs to produce domestically have to be well under the cost of simply paying tariffs or it doesn’t make sense.

Small business owners I’ve chatted with are hesitant to increase overhead if there’s any chance of a recession, so I imagine those same sentiments exist in mid size companies as well. A neighbor runs a large commercial roofing company and this year has a big drop in new residential construction contracts even though market demand for single family homes is high. Uncertainty in future material and labor costs, not to mention interest rates later this year, seem to be making the big builders hesitant to get over extended. On the plus side, I’ve heard national energy efficiency standards will be relaxed so appliance packages for new homes will be $10k to $15k ish less.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

You say spread it across some “good mutual funds”. Like what? He may already be invested in some through the target date fund. You know nothing about what he has but it’s crap because it’s a target date fund?

The vast majority of actively managed funds underperform the indexes over the long run. Should he go out and grab a handful of them and hope that the handful he grabs are all outliers that outperform?

Considering he’s also considering market timing, which is another losing proposition, a target date fund sounds even more appropriate for him.

I’ve seen the performance on target date funds, they average 4-6%, there are quite a few mega cap and growth funds that have been averaging 15-20% the last couple of years. Buying those at a discount today will pay off when the market turns around


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[mostlybirch]

I'm pretty new to actually paying attention to what my 401K and 457 are doing. things are not looking great in the market and it seems like things might continue to look this way for a little while. Any thoughts or pros vs cons of moving what's in my 401k and 457 from the target date fund it is currently in to bonds until things settle out? Seems like it would be wise to put into bonds, then when you think the market has bottomed out, put it back into the target date fund. But this doesn't seem to be generally recommended so I am probably missing something obvious.

this is under my impression that bonds generally do better, or at least don't lose a ton of value while my fund could lose 30% if things get real bad.

Any smarter people than myself able to offer some advice/thoughts? I am very much a rookie when it comes to this stuff.

I'll just leave this here for you

Bogleheads

www.bogleheads.org

Three fund portfolio and chill will beat out most active traders.

 

[MarkOrtiz]

I’ve seen the performance on target date funds, they average 4-6%, there are quite a few mega cap and growth funds that have been averaging 15-20% the last couple of years. Buying those at a discount today will pay off when the market turns around


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We don't have a lot of options at work on our 401k program, so I do have some money in my target date fund. The last couple of years have fallen right in your 15-20% range. 2023-19.4% 2024-15.8% 2025 ytd-5.3% even after this last few weeks.

 

[CorbLand]

Anyone know whats up with Luckin Coffee today? I have been in meetings so no time to look into it just saw it was up ~10%.

 

[MarkOrtiz]

Anyone know whats up with Luckin Coffee today? I have been in meetings so no time to look into it just saw it was up ~10%.

Only thing I see is that they won a large trademark lawsuit.

 

[mostlybirch]

TSLA is down enough the are hawking Teslas out front of the Whitehouse today like a cheap used car lot. Really something else. Interested in how the market reacts tomorrow.

 

[NDGuy]

TSLA is down enough the are hawking Teslas out front of the Whitehouse today like a cheap used car lot.

 

[mostlybirch]

These prices can't be beat!!

 

[TaperPin]

TSLA is down enough the are hawking Teslas out front of the Whitehouse today like a cheap used car lot. Really something else. Interested in how the market reacts tomorrow.

If you buy today you can also get a pair of sneakers and a watch for full price.

 

[Ten Bears]

We have made it 13000 posts keeping this one open… Let’s keep the political BS from the usual suspects from bleeding into this one.

Can’t wait for a few of you to sink your own ship on here..long overdue

 

[CorbLand]

We have made it 13000 posts keeping this one open… Let’s keep the political BS from the usual suspects from bleeding into this one.

Can’t wait for a few of you to sink your own ship on here..long overdue

This thread gets locked and I will log out for good.

Today was better than yesterday but my goodness, it’s a little rough to see that much red.

 

[Fowl Play]

Politics aside, TSLA and Musk aren't going anywhere. Starlink (SpaceX) is making over $10 billion a year just in civilian customer monthly subscriptions. He could turn off the Mars vehicle development if he wanted to and have enough money to keep TSLA, X, whatever else he wants alive indefinitely if he so desires. I'm actually a buyer on TSLA at the moment, and not for cars. I see them as an AI company.

 

[Ten Bears]

This thread gets locked and I will log out for good.

Today was better than yesterday but my goodness, it’s a little rough to see that much red.

I am with you, never thought I would get so much good advice about investing on a hunting forum. Its been a great thread.

I let myself get sucked into the political stuff probably more than I should on this site, but to me this thread is sacred..

Wayyyy too much red lately..trying to keep positive and make some solid decisions when the time is right to buy again..

 

[MountainTracker]

Yeah I’d really hate for this to get locked

This too shall pass, millions are made in the bear, but man it’s rough.


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[NDGuy]

Why would this get locked? What is happening with Elon’s involvement in politics and the news is very relevant to the TSLA stock discussion.