The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[DenverCountryBoy]

Potential buying opportunities incoming.

OXY, TALO, WTI

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I did real well picking up BP after the Deepwater Horizon leak and AMPY after their leak.

I'll be adding them to my watch list and looking for bottoms in the coming weeks.

 

[Marshfly]

Man what a week. Thanksgiving is a great time to be selling premium.

Hope everyone made some money.

 

[DenverCountryBoy]

Potential buying opportunities incoming.

OXY, TALO, WTI

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I did real well picking up BP after the Deepwater Horizon leak and AMPY after their leak.

I'll be adding them to my watch list and looking for bottoms in the coming weeks.

Looked into this more today. The pipeline belongs to a privately held company that is owned by a privately held company.

OXY, WTI, and TALO won't take much of hit besides a slight slow down.

 

[WesternDawg]

"have not dedicated a lot of effort into it yet."
That's the kicker. A physician goes to school for more than half a decade to learn how to make a few hundred thousand dollars a year. People expect to make money trading in the market in their spare time. That's just not the case. It takes hundreds and thousands of hours to be consistently profitable.

First. Start small. A few k and expect to lose it. Just like the casino. Your first goal is to be consistently profitable. A few bucks at a time. Like 10 or 20.

Second.Learn to lose. Seriously learn to lose well. The most profitable traders lose often but lose small. School and life has taught you that losing or averaging 60% is failure. That's absolute trash. Most of my strategies have a 50% win rate but they win more than they lose so over time I make money. 50% is failing in school. That mentality is crippling in trading.

Third. Spend time learning how your mind works and how to deal with your monkey brain emotions. I will say this again. Learning to trade is easy. Finding profitable trades is easy. Learning to manage your emotional monkey caveman brain is the hardest thing you will ever do in your entire life. It does not matter what trading style someone else has that they are successful at. Your brain and emotions are different. You have to find trades that fit YOU.

Fourth. Grow slowly. Your goal is consistent profitability over time. Not making a living RIGHT NOW! Grow size slowly. Your emotions can't handle big jumps in losses and wins no matter how much you make at your job or business. NOBODY is immune to this. NOBODY. Let that account compound. Once the annual profits from trading beat your regular income then you have some decisions to make.

Lastly, once you are profitable have real trading expectations out of yourself. This is not investing. 1% a month is terrible frankly. You need to be shooting for 5-10% in monthly average growth in your trading account. That's doable and achievable. This is a business. No one bats an eye at 5% return on capital a month for a new, small business. Same thing.

Great Youtube accounts for the mental game are Micheal Martin and Rande Howell. Everyone wants to find good trades and then wonders why they can't make money long term. The people that win figure out their trading emotions and conquer that. You can not win without figuring that out so start at the beginning.

Great books are the Market Wizards series and Best Loser Wins. Don't buy books on tactics and strategies. That stuff is free online. Backtesting software is well, well worth the price. Find some and use the crap out of it.

Lots of pages on this thread so sorry if already discussed. Do you have any recommendations on backtesting software and software to automate trades?

 

[Marshfly]

Lots of pages on this thread so sorry if already discussed. Do you have any recommendations on backtesting software and software to automate trades?

I use Option Omega for backtesting and TradeSteward for trade automation with TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim. Works perfectly for everything from iron condors/flies to longer DTE complex calendars and diagonals.

If you are on IBKR, Trade Automation Toolbox for automation.

I am only familiar with option backtesting and automation btw. Options on SPX and futures are all that I trade.


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[WesternDawg]

I use Option Omega for backtesting and TradeSteward for trade automation with TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim. Works perfectly for everything from iron condors/flies to longer DTE complex calendars and diagonals.

If you are on IBKR, Trade Automation Toolbox for automation.

I am only familiar with option backtesting and automation btw. Options on SPX and futures are all that I trade.


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Thanks, I use ThinkorSwim as well and will have to check it out.

 

[Beendare]

Turns out SMR was not a good way of investing in it

Fortunately I didn't put much money there.

I do think nuclear is going to have to make some sort of comeback but also not sure how to invest in it and also what the timing of it is... If NuScale was the only one with an approved design it could be awhile before someone else is actually building one....

Yeah, I didn’t buy it…nuclear energy is political and currently the politics in many countries are still agaist it. Plus its still too expensive. The govs are making them build these things to withstand a 747 crashing into them- even though they don’t melt down anymore.

I was hoping for a better entry point into something like Draft Kings…check the one year chart on that one.

 

[WesternDawg]

I use Option Omega for backtesting and TradeSteward for trade automation with TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim. Works perfectly for everything from iron condors/flies to longer DTE complex calendars and diagonals.

If you are on IBKR, Trade Automation Toolbox for automation.

I am only familiar with option backtesting and automation btw. Options on SPX and futures are all that I trade.


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Watched some of the option omega content on YouTube this morning and thought it was pretty interesting. Are you constantly adjusting strategies based on market conditions or do you have a few strategies that run full time (when trade conditions are met)?

Do they also have a library of strategies to pick from? I’ve never really gotten into premium selling or any of the advanced strategies so wouldn’t even know where to start as far as what to look at for backtesting.

 

[Marshfly]

Watched some of the option omega content on YouTube this morning and thought it was pretty interesting. Are you constantly adjusting strategies based on market conditions or do you have a few strategies that run full time (when trade conditions are met)?

Do they also have a library of strategies to pick from? I’ve never really gotten into premium selling or any of the advanced strategies so wouldn’t even know where to start as far as what to look at for backtesting.

They have a discord where people share a lot of backtests. It's extremely active. You get an invite when you sign up for the service, even the trail. You can pretty easily find a 50% code for Option Omega. Most people that review that service on YouTube will have one in the description or something.

Regarding option selling, I would start with just a general Youtube deep dive on credit spreads, iron condors, and iron butterflies. That will give you enough to start to wrap your head around it.

The general idea is that the Theta value of an option is the part of the premium that is tied to the options extrinsic value. At expiration if that option is out of the money, that extrinsic value goes to zero.

So the trade is to sell the option for the premium with the expectation that the option remains out of the money and you either buy it back for less later or hold it to expiration and keep 100% of the premium.

I also trade calendars on SPX as well. A calendar is a trade where you sell the option at some pointing the future and then buy a longer dated option. The general I deal here is that you expect volatility to increase such that the longer dated option increases in value more than the shorter dated option and the entire spread increases in value.

The vast majority of my trades are mechanical and placed at a certain time and day of the week and looking for either a delta or premium target. I sell premium every single day virtually no matter what. Automation via Tradesteward allows me to make sure that happens even if I am away from my desk or cell coverage.

I do make small adjustments based on current market volatility, VIX, and if premium is there in the afternoon. For example, right now, with VIX in the toilet, I had to pretty much abandon an iron condor I place after 3pm eastern and move that trade to the morning to ensure I sell the total amount of premium I want to each day.

 

[WesternDawg]

They have a discord where people share a lot of backtests. It's extremely active. You get an invite when you sign up for the service, even the trail. You can pretty easily find a 50% code for Option Omega. Most people that review that service on YouTube will have one in the description or something.

Regarding option selling, I would start with just a general Youtube deep dive on credit spreads, iron condors, and iron butterflies. That will give you enough to start to wrap your head around it.

The general idea is that the Theta value of an option is the part of the premium that is tied to the options extrinsic value. At expiration if that option is out of the money, that extrinsic value goes to zero.

So the trade is to sell the option for the premium with the expectation that the option remains out of the money and you either buy it back for less later or hold it to expiration and keep 100% of the premium.

I also trade calendars on SPX as well. A calendar is a trade where you sell the option at some pointing the future and then buy a longer dated option. The general I deal here is that you expect volatility to increase such that the longer dated option increases in value more than the shorter dated option and the entire spread increases in value.

The vast majority of my trades are mechanical and placed at a certain time and day of the week and looking for either a delta or premium target. I sell premium every single day virtually no matter what. Automation via Tradesteward allows me to make sure that happens even if I am away from my desk or cell coverage.

I do make small adjustments based on current market volatility, VIX, and if premium is there in the afternoon. For example, right now, with VIX in the toilet, I had to pretty much abandon an iron condor I place after 3pm eastern and move that trade to the morning to ensure I sell the total amount of premium I want to each day.

Awesome, thanks for the info. I’ll have to give it a look.

Just curious, how long have you been trading and how long did it take you to become profitable? Reason I’m asking is this is my ultimate goal but I don’t personally know anyone that does it full-time and only really started trading at the end of 2020. Have experience reading option flow and have had some success with that but I’d like to develop my own style as well.

 

[Marshfly]

Awesome, thanks for the info. I’ll have to give it a look.

Just curious, how long have you been trading and how long did it take you to become profitable? Reason I’m asking is this is my ultimate goal but I don’t personally know anyone that does it full-time and only really started trading at the end of 2020. Have experience reading option flow and have had some success with that but I’d like to develop my own style as well.

It took me a few months to find profitable trading styles but another year plus to teach my brain to get out of the way and let those trades work. I have been exploring day trading for about 4 years at this point. Consistently profitable and growing an account for about a year and a half now. Now I am at the point where if we turned off our business income (my wife runs that full time now so I can dedicate my time to trading) we could live an extremely comfortable life through my trading income alone. We plan to continue to run our business through 2024 and then will be at a point to exit whether we find a buyer or not. Any money from the sale of the business won't matter since the trading business makes more than enough.

My advice is to explore all types of trading a month or so at a time. One type of thing will "speak" to you and just make more sense than others an that's what you should dive into. There are tons of ways to make an income (totally different than investing for account growth) from the market. Overnight gaps, earnings trades, momentum swing trades, option scalping, premium selling, combinations of two or more, etc.

Don't be afraid to pay for a month or two of live trading access to someone doing each of those styles as a shortcut to see if it fits you. People like Options Millionaire, Live Traders, etc. are great traders at what they do and you can follow along for a low cost to see if that style suits you.
Finding your own style and specific trades is absolutely key. You have to be absolutely "sold" on what you trade and KNOW 100% the it has long term positive expectancy. That's what keeps you in the game when you have a string of down days and you just have to keep trucking.
I personally had a 10 day win streak earlier in late Oct/early Nov that then was almost totally erased in less than a week. Now back at an all time high on the account by almost 5%. That happens and you just have to be able to keep on doing the same thing knowing that drawdowns happen and you will come out of them.
You have to think of trading as a business to be successful. Businesses try new things and fail. Businesses don't make money all the time. Businesses practice good money management and risk management. You have to do all of those things to succeed.

 

[Marshfly]

Something else that you said. Personally knowing people that do this. I think that's super important. While I don't know anyone personally where I live that is making a living trading I do have friends that I have met through discord groups, etc that are and that I can reach out to at any time to bounce ideas off of, ask advice, etc. I have friends that I collaborate with on for new trades and tweaks to existing trades all the time. You HAVE to have a peer group that is a few chapters above you on the journey to look up to and strive towards. Same with any hobby, career, etc.

 

[WesternDawg]

It took me a few months to find profitable trading styles but another year plus to teach my brain to get out of the way and let those trades work. I have been exploring day trading for about 4 years at this point. Consistently profitable and growing an account for about a year and a half now. Now I am at the point where if we turned off our business income (my wife runs that full time now so I can dedicate my time to trading) we could live an extremely comfortable life through my trading income alone. We plan to continue to run our business through 2024 and then will be at a point to exit whether we find a buyer or not. Any money from the sale of the business won't matter since the trading business makes more than enough.

My advice is to explore all types of trading a month or so at a time. One type of thing will "speak" to you and just make more sense than others an that's what you should dive into. There are tons of ways to make an income (totally different than investing for account growth) from the market. Overnight gaps, earnings trades, momentum swing trades, option scalping, premium selling, combinations of two or more, etc.

Don't be afraid to pay for a month or two of live trading access to someone doing each of those styles as a shortcut to see if it fits you. People like Options Millionaire, Live Traders, etc. are great traders at what they do and you can follow along for a low cost to see if that style suits you.
Finding your own style and specific trades is absolutely key. You have to be absolutely "sold" on what you trade and KNOW 100% the it has long term positive expectancy. That's what keeps you in the game when you have a string of down days and you just have to keep trucking.
I personally had a 10 day win streak earlier in late Oct/early Nov that then was almost totally erased in less than a week. Now back at an all time high on the account by almost 5%. That happens and you just have to be able to keep on doing the same thing knowing that drawdowns happen and you will come out of them.
You have to think of trading as a business to be successful. Businesses try new things and fail. Businesses don't make money all the time. Businesses practice good money management and risk management. You have to do all of those things to succeed.

Thanks for all the advice and congrats on your success! I’ll check out those resources and see what sticks.

 

[Marshfly]

Thanks for all the advice and congrats on your success! I’ll check out those resources and see what sticks.

Feel free to message me also if you have any more specific questions and I'll try to answer. I don't want to seem like a shill for any of these products or services or anything. I have zero financial investment in any of them except they help me make money with my trading. I do have some experience with groups for a few different trading styles that you might not have found on your journey so if you are looking for a group targeted at something specific, reach out.

 

[jbosk15808]

They have a discord where people share a lot of backtests. It's extremely active. You get an invite when you sign up for the service, even the trail. You can pretty easily find a 50% code for Option Omega. Most people that review that service on YouTube will have one in the description or something.

Regarding option selling, I would start with just a general Youtube deep dive on credit spreads, iron condors, and iron butterflies. That will give you enough to start to wrap your head around it.

The general idea is that the Theta value of an option is the part of the premium that is tied to the options extrinsic value. At expiration if that option is out of the money, that extrinsic value goes to zero.

So the trade is to sell the option for the premium with the expectation that the option remains out of the money and you either buy it back for less later or hold it to expiration and keep 100% of the premium.

I also trade calendars on SPX as well. A calendar is a trade where you sell the option at some pointing the future and then buy a longer dated option. The general I deal here is that you expect volatility to increase such that the longer dated option increases in value more than the shorter dated option and the entire spread increases in value.

The vast majority of my trades are mechanical and placed at a certain time and day of the week and looking for either a delta or premium target. I sell premium every single day virtually no matter what. Automation via Tradesteward allows me to make sure that happens even if I am away from my desk or cell coverage.

I do make small adjustments based on current market volatility, VIX, and if premium is there in the afternoon. For example, right now, with VIX in the toilet, I had to pretty much abandon an iron condor I place after 3pm eastern and move that trade to the morning to ensure I sell the total amount of premium I want to each day.

I been running a few bots paper trading in Option Alpha since May trying to proof out long term profitable strategies. Have you had experience with option alpha and any reason you chose option omega? I admit I haven't dug to deep in to Option Omega but they seem to be a trading/test platform over automation

 

[WesternDawg]

I been running a few bots paper trading in Option Alpha since May trying to proof out long term profitable strategies. Have you had experience with option alpha and any reason you chose option omega? I admit I haven't dug to deep in to Option Omega but they seem to be a trading/test platform over automation

Not Marshfly, but looks like Alpha doesn’t allow SPX trades which eliminates your tax advantage.

 

[Marshfly]

I been running a few bots paper trading in Option Alpha since May trying to proof out long term profitable strategies. Have you had experience with option alpha and any reason you chose option omega? I admit I haven't dug to deep in to Option Omega but they seem to be a trading/test platform over automation

I use TradeSteward for automation since it works with TOS. I used TAT with IBKR for a couple of months but hated it. Both the remote server aspect of TAT and IBKR itself. Tradesteward is totally web based, works amazing on mobile and is just easy. It also works with any DTE unlike some options.

Option Omega will save you a ton of time proofing trades. Find a profitable backtest. Live trade it exactly. Make sure your live trading matches the backtest moving forward. Done.


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[Marshfly]

Not Marshfly, but looks like Alpha doesn’t allow SPX trades which eliminates your tax advantage.

Yuck. All charts are a visualization of trader sentiment and emotion. If you can trade one you can trade them all. Might as well get the 1256 tax advantage and trade an index or future unless your setup relies on equity specific events like earnings or similar.

 

[MountainTracker]

Whoa btc miners pumping today, with cleanspark leading the way. Btc keeps testing $38.800 ceiling, would t be surprised if it breaks into the $40k by the end of the weekend.


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[MountainTracker]

Whoa btc miners pumping today, with cleanspark leading the way. Btc keeps testing $38.800 ceiling, would t be surprised if it breaks into the $40k by the end of the weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk