The CWD scam

[30338]

A lot of really old trophy bucks are testing positive. Not sure if they would die of old age or from cwd.

 

[ScreamingPotato]

A lot of really old trophy bucks are testing positive. Not sure if they would die of old age or from cwd.

There was a study I read about a year ago that was in a locally high positivity rate area. They observed the age class of bucks was averaging about two years younger than before. They apparently weren't making it through the winters. I think that was a small area in Wisconsin or Michigan.

 

[Deadfall]

SMDH.... this hilarious...throw away wild game...grocery store far more dangerous. Fast food even worse then that...
Go get that stuff tested if you wanna freak yourself out...
...Ridiculous!

 

[spike camp]

Considering humans can contract Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) from eating beef from Mad Cow disease positive cattle, I think I’ll pass from eating CWD positive cervid meat. Would you feed it to your children? For me that’s a firm NO.

Exactly.
Most barking conspiracy, don’t even know vCJD is from mad cow and CJD is a different prion disease.

CWD has only been recognized, in the last 70 years.
That’s a blip in time.

I think it’s ridiculous to scoff at the possibility of interspecies transmission, all things considered…edit->
all coming from someone that’s eaten CWD positive meat, pressure washed CWD positive buck skulls and lives in an area that’s inundated with CWD positive mule deer( and annually watches elk and moose, grazing in the exact same areas as likely infected mule deer).

99% of the naysayers and jaw flappers have never and will never even see a CWD positive animal, let alone handle one.

The biggest yappers are those with zero first hand experience.
CWD, or current cultural norms, no different.

Soap box removal, activated.

 

[elkhunter505]

Yea I dont disagree on any of that. I understand the potential utility and limitations of modeling and they certainly are valuable tools. I also agree on motivations of the vast majority of those working in this space.

I am a bit more skeptical of the peer review process though I dont have a better alternative. The James Lyndsay hoax papers getting published in peer reviewed journals being a hyperbolic but true example of how it does not always serve as an effective filter.

Generally the process works as intended though and I dont actually doubt your conclusions, you do seem like the most knowledgeable SME in this thread on this topic. I do sometimes question the resulting management practices relating to CWD but as you said thats often aside from the science involved and into looking at competing values.

I do prefer getting my deer tested, and just wish I could do so in WI without submitting the whole head.

And you’re in the right for being skeptical. Healthy skepticism is what keeps science improving. It’s unhealthy skepticism, conspiracies, that has been proven wrong over and over that is a problem. There are papers that have squeaked through the cracks of peer review and generally they never gain traction because scientific readers see the flaws. I have read a small amount of papers that have been so flawed I don’t know how they made it through. Those papers are used often to show us how not to write a paper and what we need to be on the lookout for. Additionally, those papers rarely end up cited in the literature which is how they gain traction. I wouldn’t call myself a SME on CWD, I just work on disease systems so I’m tangentially involved and gain my knowledge watching talks and reading papers. There may be/likely is someone lurking here that knows more than I do.

 

[Mikido]

You can eat all the infected shit you want, I'm not feeding positive deer to my family. I'm sure we've unknowingly eaten infected animals by now but I'm certainly not doing it on purpose. They say the average American eats two spiders per year while sleeping but I'm not gonna be popping spiders while watching a movie. Better the animal dies from a bullet or arrow than slowly wasting away anyway.

Strongly disagree with the last sentence. We don’t pop our elderly early, do we?

 

[Chad E]

Why do these scenarios end up being pitched as all or nothing? I'm not living in fear because i believe cwd exist and where appropriate I've had deer tested. I've shot and eaten several bucks in montana in units that now are positive for cwd before it was detected in those areas. It's possible one of those bucks were positive but I'm not losing sleep over the past but I am using the most current science to make informed decisions now. I say this as a person who used to love to take bone in neck roasts before cwd became a concern. Again not losing sleep over past decisions but those are no longer on the menu.
In no way do I think that I'm 100% immune from coming into contact with cwd while working up a deer but that's a necessary risk to hunting. That being said once the deer tests positive I'm not going to throw caution out and just eat it because the internet tells me I'm getting scammed. When my deer tested positive I had to think about not just the meat but the gear. The meat was frozen in game bags awaiting testing results. I chose to pitch the game bags as that was easiest at the time. But I cleaned the knife I used in a bleach solution as described by the literature at the time.

I wear my seat belt driving to the hunt....but I've also been know to drive over the speed limit at times. I'm neither scared or scammed by this paradox created by different variables. Life is full of calculation and risk mitigation. I'll continue to make decisions based on the best information I have that I think are best for myself and my family.

 

[RockAndSage]

Strongly disagree with the last sentence. We don’t pop our elderly early, do we?

How to tell me you've never had to put an elderly dog down, without saying it...

 

[RyanT26]

Another reality is, if you take your deer to a meat processor which the majority of hunters do there has been direct or indirect contamination of your meat. That meat processor runs one cwd deer through that plant it’s forever tainted. If you think your meat is the only in the grinder to make summer sausage or sticks you’re delusional.

If you think about everything that has contact with killed and processed animal knives, your pack, game bags, clothes, coolers, vehicle or atv, etc if any one of these things has been exposed to cwd meat, blood, fluids ever it should be destroyed. Otherwise it becomes just another cwd contamination zone.

 

[maxx075]

Not sure why you're all up in arms of CWD. Microplastics will 100% wipe out the human species way before CWD will lol.

 

[elkhunter505]

Another reality is, if you take your deer to a meat processor which the majority of hunters do there has been direct or indirect contamination of your meat. That meat processor runs one cwd deer through that plant it’s forever tainted. If you think your meat is the only in the grinder to make summer sausage or sticks you’re delusional.

If you think about everything that has contact with killed and processed animal knives, your pack, game bags, clothes, coolers, vehicle or atv, etc if any one of these things has been exposed to cwd meat, blood, fluids ever it should be destroyed. Otherwise it becomes just another cwd contamination zone.

It’s not tainted forever. You can inactivate the prion with 40% bleach solution. It only works on non-porous surfaces like knives, tables, etc., but it still is possible to inactivate it in these scenarios. If people didn’t freak out about the government telling them to do something, and there was the money and the personnel to test all deer and elk killed every place, they would do it. I would bet there are places that CWD is currently that no one knows and it’ll be that one hunter that values their health or scientific advancement that will be the reason we know it is there.

If we think about the amount of cows in the US that have tested positive for mad cow and compare it to the amount of deer that have tested CWD positive, we should really be thinking about how many chances it is being given to jump the species barrier. Just because it hasn’t done it, doesn’t mean it never will. The more chances it is given, the more likely one of the variants of the prion will be able to infect a human and then the cat is out of the bag. If we ever see someone infected with CWD, deer hunting as we know it will change forever. If we value deer hunting like I do, we should be testing every deer we kill and not taking chances.

 

[RyanT26]

It’s not tainted forever. You can inactivate the prion with 40% bleach solution. It only works on non-porous surfaces like knives, tables, etc., but it still is possible to inactivate it in these scenarios. If people didn’t freak out about the government telling them to do something, and there was the money and the personnel to test all deer and elk killed every place, they would do it. I would bet there are places that CWD is currently that no one knows and it’ll be that one hunter that values their health or scientific advancement that will be the reason we know it is there.

If we think about the amount of cows in the US that have tested positive for mad cow and compare it to the amount of deer that have tested CWD positive, we should really be thinking about how many chances it is being given to jump the species barrier. Just because it hasn’t done it, doesn’t mean it never will. The more chances it is given, the more likely one of the variants of the prion will be able to infect a human and then the cat is out of the bag. If we ever see someone infected with CWD, deer hunting as we know it will change forever. If we value deer hunting like I do, we should be testing every deer we kill and not taking chances.

Sure thing man. A prion that lasts forever and can withstand 1800°F is simply wiped away with a bleach solution. That makes sense.
That still doesn’t change the fact of mixed batches of meat at a processor or everything porous that you use while hunting have you bleached your pack or hunting clothes lately?

I agree with you 100% that it’s very likely it is far more widespread than what anyone wants to admit. I don’t think mandating testing will ever take hold anywhere. States are not going to want to fund that and most hunters aren’t going to want to take the time to do it.

 

[RyanT26]

Not sure why you're all up in arms of CWD. Microplastics will 100% wipe out the human species way before CWD will lol.

Because it’s much funner and productive to worry about something that hasn’t and more than likely will never happen then deal the reality that we’re straight up being poisoned by ingesting at least a credit card a week

 

[elkhunter505]

Sure thing man. A prion that lasts forever and can withstand 1800°F is simply wiped away with a bleach solution. That makes sense.
That still doesn’t change the fact of mixed batches of meat at a processor or everything porous that you use while hunting have you bleached your pack or hunting clothes lately?

I agree with you 100% that it’s very likely it is far more widespread than what anyone wants to admit. I don’t think mandating testing will ever take hold anywhere. States are not going to want to fund that and most hunters aren’t going to want to take the time to do it.

You have to soak it in that solution for a while. There are a lot of guidelines for it that are supported by scientific research when it comes to inactivating the prion. It just doesn’t work with porous surfaces. It also doesn’t last forever, I forget how long but it does fade over time. I’ve never had an animal test positive and until MT I didn’t hunt in areas known to have CWD. There is some risk there no doubt, but I have a new pack and new knives and game bags that have only seen MT animals that have been tested for CWD. And as far as my clothes go, I’m not eating them anytime soon.

Yeah, mandatory will never take hold. Partially funding, partially people feeling its big brother government forcing them to do something to control them. Additionally, if these deer breeders were thinking long term rather than short term, they would realize it is against their interests to lobby against CWD management. If it jumps the species barrier, their farms are no longer going to be allowed. They will kill all of their deer and quarantine that farm if there is any possibility of it making people sick. They’re thinking short term not long term.

 

[NMJM]

These are not the same things, and it's an example of how bad humans are at instinctively judging statistical phenomena.

Drinking beer means you ingest 1 standard unit of ethanol per beer. For a 5%-avg 12oz beer that's 0.6oz of ethanol. You will have some pleasant effects and very minor impairment, plus a bit of residual damage to some of your organs. Nearly all adult humans can consume 1 beer and then drive or do other "risky" tasks. But 10 beers is too many for all except an extremely tiny number (perhaps 0) to consume and then safely drive a car.

It's not linear, though. Can you handle two beers? Probably. But lots of people can't. At 3, now the vast majority are starting to get impaired. One is almost always fine. But even at two, a statistically significant portion of the population should no longer drive.

OK, so take a breathalyzer if you're worried, right? The trouble is, rationalizing this way means you can get behind the wheel after drinking too much and tell yourself "the road is empty, I'm good." So you endanger yourself, any passengers you might have, and any pedestrians or other drivers you go by on the way home, but maybe it's only 10 people total, and you always made it before. So it's a small risk of a small tragedy.

But prion diseases are highly contagious. They're not "another beer." Other prions like CJD have already crossed the species barrier, so we know they can. We know that it's not that CWD can't, it's that it just hasn't yet. Once they evolve this adaptation, they stay adapted - there is currently no known cure for the human form of CJD (vCJD) and no way of reverting it to the form that "only affects cows." Fortunately, they caught that one early and Google says "only" 232 people have died of it so far. But the cat is most definitely out of the bag on it, and actually several hundred people contract it every year.

Here's where statistics can easily lie to you. Here's a chart of diagnosed cases of vCJD over time:

View attachment 857687

Looks good, right? We've really got a handle on it! But people don't die from it instantly. Here's a chart of deaths from it:

View attachment 857688

Not quite so good after all. It'll go down in a few years as those who have it today finish dying, but vCJD is with us for good now.

So here's the problem. Saying things like "but people drink and drive" or "but those cell phones" is called the Nirvana Fallacy. Just because we don't have perfect answers to every issue out there doesn't mean we shouldn't be smart about this one.

It's actually a form of elitism. CWD adapting to humans could take a mont or a hundred years, but it is always sitting there, knocking on the door, waiting for you to open it. Meanwhile, you're essentially saying "well it didn't mug me the LAST time I opened the door - should be fine, right?" because you don't want to be bothered with it.

That's fine if it WAS just another beer - a small tragedy in your local paper that shouldn't have happened, but the rest of humanity moves on. But in this case you're potentially hurting a LOT of other people. If you're Patient 0 (the one that lets the cat out of the bag), you're passing this gift on to every other current and future hunter that will now need to worry about this for sure.

And don't forget what we do to "fix" CJD in cow herds today. Since we don't have a cure, we kill them all.

This is not "just another beer."

Look it's not for me to tell anybody else how to live their lives, but I'll tell you this. If CWD crosses, and all of hunting as we know it today changes forever, it sure won't be my fault - at least not for lack of trying to follow any and all advice wildlife biologists have for me. I don't need that on my conscience.

I agree with you CWD is a serious threat to wildlife and we should study it more for many reasons. However to say "it is always sitting there, knocking on the door, waiting for you to open it" is nothing but a scare tactic. We do not know how many people have eaten deer that were infected with CWD, but it is likely into the 100s of thousands, and not a single case has been transmitted to humans. If those stats scare you how do you even leave the house? So many other things out there that are so much more likely to cause you harm.

Just because CJD made it from cows to humans does not guarantee CWD will. I also agree it is possible in the future CWD could evolve to infect humans, but if we are going to worry about all the prions, viruses, bacteria, fungus and who knows what else that could evolve to infect humans we will all go nuts with paranoia.

Again CWD is not a scam and it is a serious threat to deer. We should be studying it and many other things so we can better understand the world we live in but, we also don't need to be terrified of every theoretical threat knocking at the door.

 

[ddd-shooter]

It’s not tainted forever. You can inactivate the prion with 40% bleach solution. It only works on non-porous surfaces like knives, tables, etc., but it still is possible to inactivate it in these scenarios. If people didn’t freak out about the government telling them to do something, and there was the money and the personnel to test all deer and elk killed every place, they would do it. I would bet there are places that CWD is currently that no one knows and it’ll be that one hunter that values their health or scientific advancement that will be the reason we know it is there.

If we think about the amount of cows in the US that have tested positive for mad cow and compare it to the amount of deer that have tested CWD positive, we should really be thinking about how many chances it is being given to jump the species barrier. Just because it hasn’t done it, doesn’t mean it never will. The more chances it is given, the more likely one of the variants of the prion will be able to infect a human and then the cat is out of the bag. If we ever see someone infected with CWD, deer hunting as we know it will change forever. If we value deer hunting like I do, we should be testing every deer we kill and not taking chances.

Question.
Say you are the king and you can do whatever you want. So you test every deer.
What are your next steps?

 

[Huntindog45]

oh look a youtube video. must be true.

 

[elkhunter505]

Question.
Say you are the king and you can do whatever you want. So you test every deer.
What are your next steps?

See these are good questions. How do we fix the problem long term? I’m not sure what I would do specifically. I think with limited resources and an idea of spatial distribution of prevalence, I would focus harvest efforts of hunters on either the leading edge of where it is or the “hotspots”. They did that in Twin Bridges in MT last year because the deer being killed the previous year had a 75% positivity rate. I would use hunters and give extra seasons and spatial boundaries to where they could harvest deer. I would keep upping harvest until prevalence was below 5% and then try to hold it at that level or lower long-term. That seems to be the threshold where it can be contained and not spread. Nobody wants to see all the deer gone but some places like farmland in the Midwest are at densities that are just not healthy or sustainable long term. Those numbers need to be reduced if we hope to keep it from spreading to other places.

At the end of the day though, I’m the modeler/researcher not the manager. Managers are much better at accounting for the general public’s values than I am. I have less sympathy for people when a problem is a scientific problem that can be solved by science. That’s why I do research not management. The things I would recommend would just not be feasible not acceptable to the public so I keep myself out of that realm and focus on the science. If people want science-based management, I would be more apt to insert myself in the future, but in my opinion, despite what hunters and the public says about wanting science-based management, it is rarely being truly implemented because the science-based recommendations are being shot down by the public/hunters in many places that I have seen, whether that be grizzly/wolf delisting or implementing CWD management hunts in areas where populations are over objective. It happens on both sides of the aisle.

 

[ScreamingPotato]

Just because CJD made it from cows to humans does not guarantee CWD will. I also agree it is possible in the future CWD could evolve to infect humans, but if we are going to worry about all the prions, viruses, bacteria, fungus and who knows what else that could evolve to infect humans we will all go nuts with paranoia.

It's not paranoia, we prep our food accordingly. You gonna have bear sushi for example? Of course not...

Very similar prions, and far less infected cattle are eaten but it still managed to cross. The stakes are high, if it manages to cross it's going to shake up the hunting world incredibly. I think it's a dangerous game to ASSume it won't cross just because it hasn't (that we know of) yet.

 

[Reburn]

Take all the CWD deer and feed them to the wolves.
Colorado already has CWD anyways.

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