Strategy for Colorado draw 2026/2027 with pending NR changes

[Neckbone]

So with your preference point value essentially getting cut in half in 2 years it sounds like some people are going to be spending those Co points before the changes go into effect. Presumably point creep is going to be much higher than typical these next 2 years (If you buy in to this theory)

With that said, how is that going to change your strategy on which unit you apply for these next 2 years? Our plan was to hunt Co in 2026 before I knew about the changes.

I have 5 deer and 5 elk points. My strategy has been to look at the draw-out report from the year prior and make a list of all the units that took 3-5 points to draw. Cross off units with poor public then narrow it down from there with success rates/number of tags/pressure/terrain/etc.. I now worry if I go into the draw with 5 points trying to get a unit that took 4 last year, that it may draw out at 6 due to the excessive creep this new system could be causing. How much of a "buffer" Are you going to give yourself?

I usually only apply for tags I all but know I am going to get because I get one hunt per year. I don't want to over draw or strike out, so I play the points games conservatively so I don't have to worry about being left out

 

[Thejet]

Will be interesting to see how it goes, there will for sure be point jumps varying in units.
Knowing if 5s will be 6s or 0s will be 5s is anyone’s guess.

 

[tbro16]

In a similar spot as you with my 4 elk and 3 deer points. I only do 1 hunt a year as well, so I want to be damn well sure I'm going to draw before I apply otherwise I run the risk of no hunts. That said, I dont want to settle for a lesser hunt after building up a few points. Half the reason why I applied to Idaho last week was just to hope I have a tag in my pocket before all the spring draws. Push my Colorado issues back a year lol

 

[Neckbone]

In a similar spot as you with my 4 elk and 3 deer points. I only do 1 hunt a year as well, so I want to be damn well sure I'm going to draw before I apply otherwise I run the risk of no hunts. That said, I dont want to settle for a lesser hunt after building up a few points. Half the reason why I applied to Idaho last week was just to hope I have a tag in my pocket before all the spring draws. Push my Colorado issues back a year lol

I'm right there with you. I almost did Idaho, but with the unknown and $200 just to play I decided against it. As of now I'm thinking I will apply to a unit in Co for Deer that took 3 points to draw 2025. It'd be 3rd rifle. Cow elk hunting only in this unit during 3rd rifle so limited elk hunting pressure, and what looks to be good glassing terrain and just keep my fingers crossed. Probably throw in a cheap contingency plan in another state that I can withdraw from if I score Co.

 

[Serrano]

I'm right there with you. I almost did Idaho, but with the unknown and $200 just to play I decided against it. As of now I'm thinking I will apply to a unit in Co for Deer that took 3 points to draw 2025. It'd be 3rd rifle. Cow elk hunting only in this unit during 3rd rifle so limited elk hunting pressure, and what looks to be good glassing terrain and just keep my fingers crossed. Probably throw in a cheap contingency plan in another state that I can withdraw from if I score Co.

I didn't know there were any units that are cow elk only 3rd season. Are you sure it isn't OTC for bulls 3rd season?

 

[Serrano]

So with your preference point value essentially getting cut in half in 2 years it sounds like some people are going to be spending those Co points before the changes go into effect. Presumably point creep is going to be much higher than typical these next 2 years (If you buy in to this theory)

With that said, how is that going to change your strategy on which unit you apply for these next 2 years? Our plan was to hunt Co in 2026 before I knew about the changes.

I have 5 deer and 5 elk points. My strategy has been to look at the draw-out report from the year prior and make a list of all the units that took 3-5 points to draw. Cross off units with poor public then narrow it down from there with success rates/number of tags/pressure/terrain/etc.. I now worry if I go into the draw with 5 points trying to get a unit that took 4 last year, that it may draw out at 6 due to the excessive creep this new system could be causing. How much of a "buffer" Are you going to give yourself?

I usually only apply for tags I all but know I am going to get because I get one hunt per year. I don't want to over draw or strike out, so I play the points games conservatively so I don't have to worry about being left out

The units I know didn't have any additional creep in 2025. Some actually had less creep than usual. But maybe many hunters overlooked the 2028 changes in 2025. Or maybe the panic will set in this year.

I would apply in places you know.

 

[xziang]

Glad I stumbled onto this thread. Had to google the point creep or 50/50 split CPW has in store for 2028. Had always been out there with a bow but may lean toward rifle now. (Would be a first for me)

 

[Tuf343]

You're spot on the next two years 2025 & 2026 draws are gonna see insane point creep in Colorado as everyone with 5 points rushes to burn them before the 2027 hybrid system slashes their value.

With your 5 deer 5 elk, you're in that exact panic zone a lot of residents non res are in.

My adjusted strategy for the next two cycles

Add 2-3 extra points buffer on whatever unit I target. If a unit took 3-4 last year, I’m now only looking at ones that took 1-2 or 0-1 for safety. If it took 4-5 last year, I’m skipping it it’ll probably jump to 7 this cycle.

Prioritize units with decent tags but lower demand think 2nd 3rd 4th season rifle where success is still 30-50%, public access is good, but not the trophy units everyone piles into.

Willing to under point for a guaranteed tag I’d rather hunt a solid B unit with 5 points than eat tag soup hoping for an A unit that creeps out of reach.

Bottom line Play even more conservative than usual these next two years. Treat your 5 points like they’re really 2-3 under the new system. Lock in a hunt you’ll enjoy instead of gambling on creep. After 2026, the pressure drops and you rebuild smarter.

You’ll still get a good Colorado hunt in 2026 just aim a tier lower than you planned. Better to be in the mountains than watching from home. Good luck

 

[jdmaxwell]

I have 12 pts. Putting in for 8 pt unit after comparing units and features that I could put in for.

 

[Archer86]

I am waiting for the change and then will swing for the fence every year maybe hit the lotto at some point. I don't need to hunt colorado so I will just keep building points until I draw which may never happen but at least now there is a chance at the top end tags for those below max points

 

[Rifleman86]

What’s the change?

Next year was gonna be my year off with a new kiddo coming in Feb. I might do antelope and drag my 6 yo along, but that’s it. If that was the case I was gonna burn my WY points.

I guess I’m gonna pay my money into the Ponzi scheme for another year to subsidize someone else’s hunting.

 

[deerhunt1988]

I am waiting for the change and then will swing for the fence every year maybe hit the lotto at some point. I don't need to hunt colorado so I will just keep building points until I draw which may never happen but at least now there is a chance at the top end tags for those below max points

This. Currently sitting at 9pts for deer and elk. So i'll have 11 once changes are implemented. Then its swing for the fence every year !

 

[Neckbone]

What’s the change?

Next year was gonna be my year off with a new kiddo coming in Feb. I might do antelope and drag my 6 yo along, but that’s it. If that was the case I was gonna burn my WY points.

I guess I’m gonna pay my money into the Ponzi scheme for another year to subsidize someone else’s

Instead of all NR tags being a strict preference point system, they are keeping half of the tags preference point, and the other half are going into a bonus point lottery system. The more points you have the more times your name is in the hat, but anyone with a name in the hat can potentially draw

This essentially cuts the value of your preference points in half (assuming the same number of people apply in the unit you are applying in)

The more I think about it though, this will likely change what units people apply for every year. I can see this putting more applications into the top tier units as people are swinging for the fences, and the mid/low teir units may not see as big if a change in how many points it takes to draw

 

[Neckbone]

I have 12 pts. Putting in for 8 pt unit after comparing units and features that I could put in for.

4 point buffer seems like plenty IMO. No one knows really, but it would be hard to settle for much less with 12 points

 

[Neckbone]

The units I know didn't have any additional creep in 2025. Some actually had less creep than usual. But maybe many hunters overlooked the 2028 changes in 2025. Or maybe the panic will set in this year.

I would apply in places you know.

I’ve never hunted Colorado, so I’m pretty much going off of how many points it takes to draw/success rates/public land and accessibility to it/ etc.

Im thinking im going to use my mule deer points 2026 and just elk my elk points continue to grow and see what happens with point creep/draw success going forward

 

[MuleyFever]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens but I don't think crazy point creep is guaranteed. Just in this thread you have people saying they will wait for the opportunity at a great tag in the random. You also have people not even aware of the change.

 

[BRTreedogs]

I modified my Antelope unit selection for a lesser unit in 2025 and the one I wanted didn’t creep.
I also went into a 3rd deer tag point heavy and it didn’t creep.

Rok slide seems to know about this, but no one else seems to.

 

[Rifleman86]

Instead of all NR tags being a strict preference point system, they are keeping half of the tags preference point, and the other half are going into a bonus point lottery system. The more points you have the more times your name is in the hat, but anyone with a name in the hat can potentially draw

This essentially cuts the value of your preference points in half (assuming the same number of people apply in the unit you are applying in)

The more I think about it though, this will likely change what units people apply for every year. I can see this putting more applications into the top tier units as people are swinging for the fences, and the mid/low teir units may not see as big if a change in how many points it takes to draw

I actually think that’s a good change.

I’m pleasantly surprised.

 

[Fetty Wapiti]

I actually think that’s a good change.

I’m pleasantly surprised.

This!! I think most are over looking the benefit of the new system. Yeah if you are playing the game to hunt those 3-4 point units it could make things tough, but overall it is a refreshing change.

 

[Serrano]

I don't think you are now going to draw those premium tags with few points. When was the last time you got lucky in UT or WY? It's similar drawing.