Snowpack not looking very good :(

[mtwarden]

There are a few bright spots, but a lot of the West not looking good we may be in the worst shape. Our 10 day forecast shows little to no additional precip- not good.

 

[LeftyWilbury]

yep. better plan some backpacking trips early before smokey the bear lights up a fat one.
nothin like sharing the trail with ticks and skeeters on a warm may morning.

 

[CorbLand]

My area is looking decent. Winter has held off but showed up a last week and put down over a foot in 3-4 days. It has rained for the last couple and melted a lot of the snow off.

Hopefully we get some more snow in the coming weeks or very wet spring. If we can get a spring like we had in 2023, we would be in good shape.

There is still a lot of winter left for some of those areas. Back when I sledded, we use to always say it didnt get good until mid January through end of February.

 

[mtwarden]

The Forest Service did a pretty in-depth study some years back looking into better forecasting fire seasons. Previous to this study the number one predictor they used was snowpack, now the number one predictor is June precipitation. Obviously snowpack still plays a major role, as does Spring precip, but a very wet June can make up for at least some of that lost ground.

Amazingly our snowpack was even worse off before our near record cold snap, probably a good 10-20% lower than what it is now. My guess is that snow was probably lacking a little in the moisture department.

 

[willfrye027]

The Forest Service did a pretty in-depth study some years back looking into better forecasting fire seasons. Previous to this study the number one predictor they used was snowpack, now the number one predictor is June precipitation. Obviously snowpack still plays a major role, as does Spring precip, but a very wet June can make up for at least some of that lost ground.

Amazingly our snowpack was even worse off before our near record cold snap, probably a good 10-20% lower than what it is now. My guess is that snow was probably lacking a little in the moisture department.

Isn’t that map showing the percent normal, for this time of year? IE you could still catch up pretty quick with some good late storms

 

[robby denning]

There are a few bright spots, but a lot of the West not looking good we may be in the worst shape. Our 10 day forecast shows little to no additional precip- not good.

got our own in-house hydrologist @Josh Boyd scheduled on the Rokcast to air 1/29. We be talking all this.

 

[Ucsdryder]

Too much snow…all the animals die

Not enough snow…all the animals die

Regardless, all the animals will be dead, hopefully everyone takes up golf.

 

[BBob]

Been raining here for three days now
Snow in the mountains all weekend, today and more coming later in the week.

 

[mtwarden]

Isn’t that map showing the percent normal, for this time of year? IE you could still catch up pretty quick with some good late storms

Yup a good February, or even better a good February and a good March could put us back into looking good. I think the El Niño thing they predicted is real, hope it backs off a bit.

got our own in-house hydrologist @Josh Boyd scheduled on the Rokcast to air 1/29. We be talking all this.

Coolio!

 

[Pony Soldier]

Most our wet storms are march and april. As my old neighbor used to tell me - snowpack is for pilgrams and the lakes. We depend heavily on the may - june rains after the frost goes out so it can soak in. It rained heavily last summer and fall at our elevation so the aquifers aren't as bad as they could be. I would be reluctant in planning an August vacation in the timber.

 

[mtwarden]

^ OR a August river vacation

But things do change, just at this point not looking overly good.

 

[S.Clancy]

Isn’t that map showing the percent normal, for this time of year? IE you could still catch up pretty quick with some good late storms

Those maps are based on the median SWE (snow water equivalent) of the snowpack compared to the 1991-2020 median values. You can click on each individual site to see how it compares in graphical form with previous years. There is a TON of cool data stored within the Snotel databases

To answer your question, yes, we can catch up. In MT I believe late February-April are our big SWE storing months.

 

[Mt Al]

I'm surprised it's as high as it is in SW Montana, thought it would be way lower. Lot's of season to go but it's been a light precip year for sure.

 

[willfrye027]

Those maps are based on the median SWE (snow water equivalent) of the snowpack compared to the 1991-2020 median values. You can click on each individual site to see how it compares in graphical form with previous years. There is a TON of cool data stored within the Snotel databases

To answer your question, yes, we can catch up. In MT I believe late February-April are our big SWE storing months.

I follow a few different versions. Just not sure what provides the most relevant info for keeping tabs on the overall conditions for mule deer. Locally we are “out of the drought” but I can tell you we had late fall precipitation and late green up which is not great for my local deer herd. Obviously the snotel data was pretty spot on predicting last years winter kill. All interesting stuff.

 

[S.Clancy]

I follow a few different versions. Just not sure what provides the most relevant info for keeping tabs on the overall conditions for mule deer. Locally we are “out of the drought” but I can tell you we had late fall precipitation and late green up which is not great for my local deer herd. Obviously the snotel data was pretty spot on predicting last years winter kill. All interesting stuff.

I mean, "conditions for mule deer" is incredibly complicated and far exceeds 1-yr of precip data. You'd need to know vegetative conditions and structure, browse quality, browse patterns over time, historical logging, fire, etc etc.

I would also argue that Snotel is not a great predictor of winter-kill due to the station placements. Snotel's purpose is to track water storage for use (irrigation, predicting reservoir storages, river flows for transport and irrigation use, etc), so the stations are built at high elevations where the vast amount of storage occurs. Mule deer (in general) are not wintering at high elevations. They are much more affected by low elevation snowfall and Snotel does not have a ton of low elevation stations, although I believe they are going to be building some.

The most useful metric to track in Snotel would prob be water year precip % of median and soil moisture. I track a number of other databases when looking for productive mule deer habitat, but I am not sharing those with anyone.

 

[CorbLand]

I'm surprised it's as high as it is in SW Montana, thought it would be way lower. Lot's of season to go but it's been a light precip year for sure.

Keep in mind that this is SWE so 10 inches of heavy wet snow can have a higher SWE than 100 inches of light snow.

 

[t_carlson]

Add it to the list of things that take a turn for the worst in 2024.

I wonder when we'll finally hear some good news?

 

[LongWayAround]

Add it to the list of things that take a turn for the worst in 2024.

I wonder when we'll finally hear some good news?

Hopefully it will improve in November.

 

[LongWayAround]

 

[LongWayAround]

One year ago.