Jordan Smith
WKR
Absolutely. I would call the model a coarse approximation, not a "best-estimate", but yeah, I agree with you that, while it has practical utility, it's not a perfect model. It's a great tool for planning purposes, however, even though your actual results may vary when you get close to the theoretical extremes. If the theoretical stability of the bullet is under an SG value of 1.3, I don't even bother testing for instability. Instead, I stick to bullets with an SG value of 1.5 or greater to make sure I'm not working with a BC value that depends on atmospheric conditions. In reality, I build the rifle to achieve an SG value of >1.5 with the bullet I want to shoot in the most dense air I plan to shoot in.Those twist rate calculators are best-estimates off very basic formulas. They're great to get you in the ballpark or let you know if you might have a problem. I definitely wouldn't take it as gospel and build a rifle/bullet system based off the calculator saying your SG is 1.05 and you're good-to-go and "moderately stable" with just lowering BC.
There are plenty of variables not captured in those basic formulas that affect stability (center of gravity, center of pressure, moment of inertia) as well as environmental factors like a stiff cross wind that can push a "moderately stable" bullet over to "unstable". I'm personally less concerned with the BC reduction, but the increased dispersion and erratic flight of "unstable" bullets are the deal-breaker for me.
If I have am shooting a rifle/bullet with a calculator output under 1.3, I'm definitely going to investigate stability with fired data.
Agreed on the sentiment that the 108 class bullets are the safer bet for an 8 twist at zero or negative density altitudes.
Of course unstable bullets are the biggest issue, but my point was that even if the bullet is "moderately stable" according to the calculator, that doesn't mean you check the "stable" box on your list, and move on. The degree of stability matters and affects BC.