Sheep Hunt Drawing History

[mdoolin]

I was looking through all my draw history over the years and the odds of pulling a sheep tag in the states I apply for. Statistically speaking odds for a singular draw are extremely low but I started thinking what my odds of pulling 1-2 sheep tags over my lifetime would be giving I apply in 6 states for sheep. This got me thinking about how the statistics have played out in real life so I was wondering how everyones luck has been on pulling sheep tags in the past? If you're willing to participate post up how many years you have applied and if you have had any luck drawing anything.

I got my first sheep hunting experience last year for Dall sheep after getting extremely lucky and winning a hunt from Epic Outdoors and now i'm just praying i can pull another sheep tag in my lifetime! I have applied in 5-6 states for sheep over the past 9 years on avg without pulling a tag.

 

[BuzzH]

I applied for my first sheep tag in 1980. At that time, some of the units in Montana had 1-20 odds...this year was my 40th application for sheep in Montana with no luck.

The place I killed my dall sheep in 1995, I bought the tag at a local grocery store. That area is now draw with horrific odds.

I started applying outside Montana starting in 1998 adding Wyoming and Utah. I started applying for sheep in NM, AZ, NV and CO a couple years later. I've also applied off and on in Idaho when I felt it was worth it.

Completely out of nowhere in 2012 I drew desert sheep in Arizona with 11 points. I was applying smartly making sure I always had an active application and got very, very lucky.

When NM made the changes to outfitter sponsored tags and slashed NR quotas, I quit applying for sheep and everything else in New Mexico.

I drew a preference tag for bighorn sheep last year in Wyoming with 21 points.

Still feel like I should draw another one or maybe 2 if things go well and I keep my health. At this point, its likely random tags for me from here on out. The theory I run with is apply in enough states, enough times, in the areas that may not have the best rams, you have a shot. I also splash around in raffles a bit as well.

When you look at the number of people that are now applying compared to even 15 years ago, I don't think the average person just starting now has much better than very long lottery odds. The point systems have totally changed things, favoring the top point holders in a few places, and really putting the screws to a vast majority most everywhere else.

Too much demand and too little supply just makes it very tough.

The way around this is to find a profession that pays obscene money. Do that, and you'll hunt sheep not only every year, but also in the very best areas. Waiting in line with everyone else doesn't assure you anything...buying Governors tags and buying sheep hunts means you'll hunt sheep.

I got lucky and jumped on a few opportunities at the right/early enough times when sheep were in reach of a lower middle income hunter or early enough in the point game.

That ship has sailed...and it isn't going to see the dock again.

Good luck to those hoping and applying...stay the course it may work out.

 

[ShortMountain91]

If you want to know your odds there is a formula assuming you know the odds of each draw. Multiply 1 - each draw odd then subtract that number from 1. I.e. if I put it for 3 draws and they have a 1%, 2%, and 3% draw odds respectively. The odds of drawing 1 of those tags are 1-((1-.01)x(1-.02)x(1-.03)) = 1 - (.99x.98x.97) = 5.9%.

I apply for 8 sheep tags annually and when I had gohunt I ran this formula for my point total and assuming I had 15 points on every state that had a point system. I'll just say it wasn't pretty. It basically comes down to pure unadulterated divine luck or lots of money or the unlimiteds for sheep hunting. I'll probably just do the unlimiteds one day

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[alexanderg23]

I’m 100%. So far, so good.

 

[Wapiti1]

You have 0% chance if you don't apply. If you want to hunt another, you either decide to save a lot of money, or start applying for tags and drawings.

If you just like mountain hunting, go for the goats. Similar experience, better odds, cheaper outfitted options.

It's simple. You either try and might go, or you don't and you never go.

I put in for desert and bighorn everywhere they are available for a NR except California. I throw some cash at raffles as well. It's not cheap. I have yet to draw and have been applying since 2001 when I got a real job. No idea if I will ever draw, but I'll keep trying.

I successfully hunted dall in Alaska in 2017 and would like to go back in 5 years or so.

Jeremy

 

[mdoolin]

I completely agree with all your mentalities and will keep paying the piper hoping to get lucky(again) and or I run out of money! In the meantime I plan to save up and go to Alaska every 4-5 years as long as Dall prices don't get too ridiculous!

I also keep crossing my fingers that some buddies will draw some sweet tags and invite me along to enjoy the experience.

 

[acebasinman]

I have been lucky to draw desert sheep in Nevada and rocky in Wyoming. I drew the Wyoming tag in 2006 with only three bonus points. Turns out I was the only nonresident that applied. This was because no ram had been killed in the unit in the last three years. After seeing this, I did a lot of research and found an outfitter that knew the unit well, and said he could get me a ram. He kept his word. Unlike deer and elk units, you should consider applying for the worst sheep units if you really want a tag.

 

[Sleghammer]

I'm just beginning the sheep application journey. I successfully hunted my rocky in my home state in 2020. My attention is now desert. Starting from ground zero everywhere in the west. I'm focusing on AZ and NV now, and facing long odds. Any thoughts on starting with no point history?

 

[wildwilderness]

I'm just beginning the sheep application journey. I successfully hunted my rocky in my home state in 2020. My attention is now desert. Starting from ground zero everywhere in the west. I'm focusing on AZ and NV now, and facing long odds. Any thoughts on starting with no point history?

No points vs points in the random draw for most states are statistically the same. Will you notice the difference from 0.2% to 0.1% draw odds?

The only advantage of points is if you are able to become the max point holder in a state that guarantees tags to that group. It is probably not attainable in the short or medium term with no or low points to achieve that. The only hope is to outlive everyone else in your point cohort. That is best done if you start accumulating points at the youngest age possible, and plan to be in sheep shape at age 80!

 

[Sleghammer]

I figured the magnitude of the difference wasn't much if not in a max point pool. I'm 32 years old, with the way these things are headed I'll likely never reach max in my lifetime with all those ahead of me. Although 30 years in the future, the system/game may change, so I feel like I have to have some skin in it (FOMO).

I also don't have the goal to pursue the best units in said states. I just want a quality hunt opportunity at a desert.

Is there anyone else with evidence of beating these odds for a desert?

 

[OMB]

I figured the magnitude of the difference wasn't much if not in a max point pool. I'm 32 years old, with the way these things are headed I'll likely never reach max in my lifetime with all those ahead of me. Although 30 years in the future, the system/game may change, so I feel like I have to have some skin in it (FOMO).

I also don't have the goal to pursue the best units in said states. I just want a quality hunt opportunity at a desert.

Is there anyone else with evidence of beating these odds for a desert?

Honestly with the price of desert hunts in Mexico and how many are available in raffles, you're probably better off saving up the cash and buying the hunt or going the raffle route. As a NR, off the top of my head, there's probably only a few dozen tags available in a given year (I'm probably off but not by a a lot.)

Desert prices in Mexico seem to be the only ones that have stabilized a bit over the past few years around $50-60k as they get more herds established but it's also buyer beware on how "wild" the sheep in that area are.

 

[AZ_Hunter_2000]

I figured the magnitude of the difference wasn't much if not in a max point pool. I'm 32 years old, with the way these things are headed I'll likely never reach max in my lifetime with all those ahead of me. Although 30 years in the future, the system/game may change, so I feel like I have to have some skin in it (FOMO).

I also don't have the goal to pursue the best units in said states. I just want a quality hunt opportunity at a desert.

Is there anyone else with evidence of beating these odds for a desert?

Do not put in for the top units. Go for the "lesser" units.

 

[BuzzH]

I figured the magnitude of the difference wasn't much if not in a max point pool. I'm 32 years old, with the way these things are headed I'll likely never reach max in my lifetime with all those ahead of me. Although 30 years in the future, the system/game may change, so I feel like I have to have some skin in it (FOMO).

I also don't have the goal to pursue the best units in said states. I just want a quality hunt opportunity at a desert.

Is there anyone else with evidence of beating these odds for a desert?

I don't know about beating any odds, but I got extremely lucky and drew in 2012 in AZ. Honestly, I thought I'd be way more likely to draw NV.

I drew with 11 points, in a unit that was issuing 6 tags at the time, and was on the rebound from a die-off. Its died off again and is now down to 1 tag.

I had a great time...spent 10-12 days before the season looking at rams, and killed my ram within an hour of opening day.

Couple days before the season:

Opening morning:

 

[SummitsCalling]

Do not put in for the top units. Go for the "lesser" units.

Everyone does that, changing your odds from 1:300 to 1:250 doesn't do much. Maybe 10-15 years ago, but there are no drawing secrets.

The truth is, if you were born today, most likely you won't draw a tag before you died. More people will die being top point holders than getting to hunt the tag, just the way it is.

Only sure thing is buying the governor's tag or going to Mexico.

 

[Tmcgarrigle]

I figured the magnitude of the difference wasn't much if not in a max point pool. I'm 32 years old, with the way these things are headed I'll likely never reach max in my lifetime with all those ahead of me. Although 30 years in the future, the system/game may change, so I feel like I have to have some skin in it (FOMO).

I also don't have the goal to pursue the best units in said states. I just want a quality hunt opportunity at a desert.

Is there anyone else with evidence of beating these odds for a desert?

I know of people who have drawn desert tags in AZ with 0 or 1 points and a friend who drew a desert Nevada nonres with 10.

 

[Sleghammer]

I know of people who have drawn desert tags in AZ with 0 or 1 points and a friend who drew a desert Nevada nonres with 10.

That's awesome.

Thanks everyone for your input.

 

[mproberts]

I've been applying for a decade in 8 states with no luck. I also throw hundreds of dollars a year at raffles. I pretty much chalk it all up to a donation to wildlife. If I was smart I would have bought a dall hunt a decade ago, but now I can barely justify it since prices have gone up like 60% since then. Hunting is all about experiences to me and for the money you can get a lot more value spending dall sheep money multiple other options.

 

[Bambistew]

I played with the stats one time assuming applying for all permits available and tossing in a few tickets for random raffles. Even if you assume really low chance of drawing 0.5%+/- your odds of drawing a in 30-40 years is pretty good. Thats also about a $2500+ investment every year, which seems to increase about 5% a year as well. Doesn't take long to pay for a guided hunt up north with 100% chance of getting a tag.

I used to apply for a few states, MT, CO and ID, but I just can't justify the costs vs reward/odds to apply, personally. If you look at the total number of NR sheep tags given in all the L48, its 100+/- NR tags, (probably less, and some states are looking to limit NR even further). More than half of all NR tags are given out in WY and NV, with CO third. The rest of the states give a max of about 10 tags each, if that. I lost my desire to hunt bighorn sheep after I killed a few sheep in AK and spent a lot of time hunting up here. The hunts in the L48 just don't seem as wild as they used to be, but everyone has their own experience/expectations.

I hunted the UL in MT a couple times in the late 90's early 2000s, and at the time it was a really cool experience and would still be today. I would recommend that everyone have a chance to do that, as long as they go into it knowing its mostly likely going to be a camping trip. Your odds to kill one are about as good as your odds of drawing a tag, maybe slightly more.

I'm lucky enough to get all the sheep hunting I can handle each year in AK. My wife and I have both drawn 2 tags each in the last 12 years up here. "Odds" for all tags we drew ranged from 10% (one archery tag) and 2-3% on other draw tags. Someone has to draw, and I don't mind tossing in a few bucks a chance at a tag. Its funny that most people don't realize that OTC areas have better success rates than most draw areas.

Honestly, if you really want to hunt sheep. Make contacts/connections with sheep hunters, to the WSF and make friends, but most importantly get a good paying job (or side work) and start saving. The best thing I ever did was move to Alaska, and I wish I would have done it sooner.

I get there are lots of people that want to collect all the species, and that love hunting BH sheep. Everyone has their own personal expectations/experiences. You can also do both, apply, save and hunt sheep in AK/Canada. Its an expensive game anyway you look at it.

Also note that a lot of guys that have drawn a couple tags, were also in on the ground flow of point systems. Coming in 20 years late is a huge headwind to buck.

 

[Molon Labe]

I applied for 14 sheep tags this year and my odds were 3.72% cumulative.

This is based off projected odds using toprut, gohunt, (ID odds were adjusted down because i feel the published odds are not calculated correctly yet by gohunt or toprut in that state) there are other companies that provide published odds but might not be as well produced across all the states i apply

I broke down each application/tag to figure out cost...some states the license is divided amongst several species.
Total cost associated with sheep aps $1076 this year.
So my perceived tag value would be $28,924.73 (calculated by dividing investment by the "odds" of drawing)

Getting to go rocky or desert hunting again is worth that investment in my situation.
I prefer to do everything DIY and I am fully aware that i could hunt Dalls guided under that perceived tag value threshold...but i can hunt OTC dalls anyway.

So for me its all about getting another lower 48 tag in my pocket...and you have to have your name in the hat or you will not pull one.

If someone wanted to just go sheep hunting and was looking at the most fiscally sound way of doing the hunt with a limited budget/income range....well...save a few hundred a month and book a dall hunt after a few years.

 

[Kimbersig]

I’ve been applying for sheep for 20 years in various states. I drew my rocky tag as a resident 4 years ago. Hoping to draw a desert sheep sometime in the next 30
Years.