Question on Draw odds, Go hunt vs. Wyo G&F site

[Midwest_Hunt]

Looking on Wyoming Game and fish website at draw odds. Not sure what the Multiple quota numbers are? This is unit 7, on GoHunt it says with my 4 points I have a 100% Draw odds. Just wasn't very clear how they were breaking things down in the picture I attached.

 

[hunt1up]

That's the remaining number of tags left at each particular level. So for example, 6 people drew with 4 points and 19 were left for the <4 and so on.

 

[Midwest_Hunt]

Hunt1up thank you, that explains it! I see your from Illinois? where about? im in southern IL close to St. louis.

 

[hunt1up]

Just a little North of Bloomington.

 

[kparrott]

I also found that GoHunts odds were off a year, I think they were recently updated. But in April I was looking at units that GoHunt said I had 100% odds, the Wyoming website disagreed. GoHunt was using 2020 draw results, Wyoming had the 2021 results. Just something to double check.


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[Midwest_Hunt]

I also found that GoHunts odds were off a year, I think they were recently updated. But in April I was looking at units that GoHunt said I had 100% odds, the Wyoming website disagreed. GoHunt was using 2020 draw results, Wyoming had the 2021 results. Just something to double check.


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Thank you!

 

[wapitibob]

NOBODY predicts what your odds "will be" other than OregonTags (OR only). You are seeing what your odds were the previous year. Both Gohunt and Toprut will show you the individual point pool totals, which you need in order to make an informed decision when trying to predict your odds going into the current draw.

 

[Laramie]

Thank you!

As Bob said above, there is absolutely no way to know how many points will be required to draw a tag in Wyoming because there is no way to predict how many people will apply. The numbers the WG&F show do give you a rough idea but just know, number of points can and sometimes do fluctuate significantly from year to year. Generally a person will have a very good chance at drawing the previous years 4 point tag with 5 points. If you have 4 points and you really want to hunt this year, look for areas that required 3 points last year. That's no guarantee but it works most of the time.

 

[Pancake]

And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe GoHunt also adds the odds from the random and the preference pool together. For example, maybe someone was 80% to draw in the preference, but you had a 10% chance of drawing in the random, I think GoHunt will spit 90% at you as what's essentially the total odds of drawing (based on the previous year or years).

 

[Rich M]

The past 5 years have really changed the preference points game. More and more folks and less and less tags. They reduced the tags by about 8,000 this year and I'm sure the hunter pool has increased by more than that somehow. Add the fear or the 90/10 thing (which I think is gonna happen in a few years).

For a 2-3 point or better unit, I'd look at what it took to get a tag last year (2021) on the WY site and then add 2 points to it for this year. That should put you in the running. Special may or may not help. There is no 2nd choice draw for NR. More folks asking than there are tags in all but 2 or 3 units with like 5% public land access.

Last year - we applied for a 2 pt hunt and it went up to a 4 pt hunt in that 1 drawing, probably will hit 6 points this year. It is a great hunt and used to be under the radar but not anymore. Decided to do a guided hunt as opposed to chasing the moving point target with the odds against us - and us older guys losing years of opportunity to do other stuff (everything needs to be planned a year or more out these days). We have 3 pts right now, will have 4 going into the 2023 draw. Scheduled to hunt 2023 on private.

Good luck in this year's draw! Can't win if you don't play. I'm not trying to dissuade anyone, just go into it with your eyes open and know that the game changes every year.

 

[Dos Perros]

And someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe GoHunt also adds the odds from the random and the preference pool together. For example, maybe someone was 80% to draw in the preference, but you had a 10% chance of drawing in the random, I think GoHunt will spit 90% at you as what's essentially the total odds of drawing (based on the previous year or years).

They do combine, but that's not exactly how the math works, but close.

GoHunt runs a simulation thousands of times based on the previous year's inputs and then calculates/derives odds that way. That avoids one-off random variation messing with things.

 

[Midwest_Hunt]

Thanks everyone! This helps alot!!

 

[Rich M]

https://www.rokslide.com/forums/threads/wyoming-90-10-for-elk.265131/#post-2605913

If this is true, no-one will be able to predict the points.