Probability question

TheCougar

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Need a quick hand, since I don’t know what to google to find this... what is the equation (or name of the equation) used to determine cumulative probability? (And yes, I tried cumulative probability and I don’t think that’s what I am looking for). For instance, if I have a 1% chance of drawing a tag every year, how many years do I have to apply to have a 50% chance of drawing that tag, based on the 1% chance per year, assuming that the 1% chance remains constant?


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Assuming that the 1% chance remains constant and each draw is independent of each other, your odds will always be 1%.

Same with the lottery, if the odds are 1 in 1 million, if you buy a ticket for 500,000 draws, your odds of winning during those draws will always be 1 in 1 million.

Only a point system or a system where your odds increase with every unsuccessful draw will change your odds in future draws.
 
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Sorry Kootenay, but that's not correct. Yes, your draw chance in each individual draw is 1%, but your chances to draw at least once over multiple draws are different. The formula is: 1-(1-chance)^n

So over 3 years with a 1% chance, your probability is 1 - ( 1 - 0.01 ) ^ 3 = 0.02901. Multiply by 100 for 2.901%

Over 50 years its ~39.49%

It would take 69 years to hit 50%
 
Sorry Kootenay, but that's not correct. Yes, your draw chance in each individual draw is 1%, but your chances to draw at least once over multiple draws are different. The formula is: 1-(1-chance)^n

So over 3 years with a 1% chance, your probability is 1 - ( 1 - 0.01 ) ^ 3 = 0.02901. Multiply by 100 for 2.901%

Over 50 years its ~39.49%

It would take 69 years to hit 50%

That’s the formula I was looking for!!! Thanks.


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I was going to be an Astronaut until I found out it included math...
:D

Are you in a point system or regular draw - does the system take from the top first or does it allocate extra entries for the pref points (if you have 10 pts, then you get your name in the pool 10 times)?

In a perfect world, the first guys to enter would get whittled away before anyone who enters after them - kinda like standing in line for concert tickets back in the day. Say 1,000 folks apply and every season hey pull 100 folks, max time is 10 years to be drawn.

1% draw is pretty slim pickings - 10 out of 1,000, 100 out of 10,000. You'd def want pref points as opposed to blind draws every year.
 
I spend too much time on this every year and I calculate it the same way. It’s especially confusing the way AK does things!

Now, what if there are a total of 1,000 applicants and 10 tags – a 1% draw. But you can put in 6 times per year. So would your odds of drawing a 1% tag in AK actually be 5.58% annually (granted you put in all 6 times)? I pull my hair out every year trying to pick my best odds. My draw supplement looks like a monkey is trying to plan a trip to the moon.
 
How do you calculate odds of drawing a tag in 5 years with 20% draw odds?

What about drawing in 10 years with 10% odds or 5% odds?

I couldn't quite follow the formula because I didn't know what the symbol and n meant. I'd be happy to just get some enlightenment so I can calculate on my own. I'm not math wiz.
 
Or you can put in for special tags in Washington that is a point system that accumulates points if you don't draw. Which according to the math should help you draw. I am over twenty points now and this last season ran into a fellow sportsman who was on his fourth branched antler tag. Three tags is becoming popular now. But there seems to be a group of us that are 15+ that can not get drawn. So math works on paper but in real life it don't mean nothing.
 
But there seems to be a group of us that are 15+ that can not get drawn. So math works on paper but in real life it don't mean nothing.

Just like 1% draw odds mean you have a chance, even 99% draw odds means 1% you DON'T draw, and 1% is not 0.

I'll be curious how many people opt out of the CO weighted points now that its an option this year. I see so many posts about how people with 0 points (or 5 or whatever ended up being lucky that year) drew as many tags as those with 20. Definitely works in my favor when others don't trust math. :D
 
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