Points - How many does a guy need?

[dangerousD]

As I continue my quest to learn more on hunting elk and other species in the high country, I find myself being puzzled in determining where to apply and how many points are necessary to draw a tag in various units. I sometimes see people post information that says you need "xx" number of points to draw a tag in unit xyz. How do you come about figuring out this information?

So far I've been mainly focused on Utah data. I've been reading all the data they put out about draw odds for each unit and harvest rates, etc. The only thing I don't see is how those odds are actually affected by bonus/preference points. Same goes for the MRS in Eastman's. When it says you have a 1 in 10 chance to draw an archery tag in that unit, what does that truly mean? Does that mean with zero points, those are the odds? I would think not, but haven't been able to decipher those details yet. Hoping you all could shed more light on this.

 

[Ohio Darin]

I joined Huntin Fool a year and a half ago after a couple recommendations. The December issue gives a state-by-state overview and then each issue gets into more detail of each state as their entry deadlines near. Their website contains a lot of good info and draw odds too. Best $100 I spent to get up to speed with western state draws.

 

[realunlucky]

Utah can be confusing to get your true odds. Half the tags go to people with the most points. The other half is divided among the rest of the applicant's. You get one number for each entry. So one for every point plus the current years entry. You keep your lowest number. They start at the lowest number working to the highest until all ( half the total tags issued for that unit). Your true odds are the total number of applicant's minus the max point entries divided by half the tag number. That is your odds for one chance you can multiply your entry numbers. That is your true odds in utah

 

[realunlucky]

Oh you always get a slim chance to draw in utah even with no points

 

[amp713]

Lookin on utahs draw results is misleading. They are not really a true points system, a true points system the guys with so many points gets tags. Utah isnt like that. When looking at the draw odds the best thing to do is look at the bottom on thier sheets. It will show a total number of tags and total number of people that have put in, then your chances of drawing. That is what i consider a Raw number. Anyone putting in for that tag has that raw chance of drawing that tag. Utahs point system is really screwy, Some people will be able to describe this better than me but look at the draw odds for guys with 6 points for example. 60 people put in last year, 6 people drew. Well thats a 1 in 10. But in the 5 points section no one drew so there isnt a draw odd posted. What you basically need to do without getting too crazy involved is just read between the lines.

For example: hunt 1001 paunsagaunt. Number of applicants for resident: 638, number of total tags: 23. So your raw draw odds are 1 in 27.7. But looking at the sheet shows that all residents who hit 12 points got tag so that can be assumed to be your point cap for this. Looking at it thought people with 7 points had 1 in 20 while people with 5 points had 1 in 16.7.... So you just have to look at it and say my rough odds for 5-6 points is probably around 1 in 16. You can go to sites that calculate it all right out to the decimal for you but as far as im concerned nothing goes statistically in a lottery. Get a close estimate and hope for the best!

 

[wapitibob]

You can look right at the odds reports for OR and WY and see how many points you need. Utah and AZ are bonus point states but you can also figure out where the max pools are. The random draws in those two states will give you a weighted advantage because of those bonus points.

 

[realunlucky]

Lookin on utahs draw results is misleading. They are not really a true points system, a true points system the guys with so many points gets tags. Utah isnt like that. When looking at the draw odds the best thing to do is look at the bottom on thier sheets. It will show a total number of tags and total number of people that have put in, then your chances of drawing. That is what i consider a Raw number. Anyone putting in for that tag has that raw chance of drawing that tag. Utahs point system is really screwy, Some people will be able to describe this better than me but look at the draw odds for guys with 6 points for example. 60 people put in last year, 6 people drew. Well thats a 1 in 10. But in the 5 points section no one drew so there isnt a draw odd posted. What you basically need to do without getting too crazy involved is just read between the lines.

For example: hunt 1001 paunsagaunt. Number of applicants for resident: 638, number of total tags: 23. So your raw draw odds are 1 in 27.7. But looking at the sheet shows that all residents who hit 12 points got tag so that can be assumed to be your point cap for this. Looking at it thought people with 7 points had 1 in 20 while people with 5 points had 1 in 16.7.... So you just have to look at it and say my rough odds for 5-6 points is probably around 1 in 16. You can go to sites that calculate it all right out to the decimal for you but as far as im concerned nothing goes statistically in a lottery. Get a close estimate and hope for the best!

That's not true at all you only draw for half the tags so its not number of applicant's divided by total tags that is false hope my friend

 

[Shrek]

dangerousD , I hope you are going hunting every year for elk and deer while you worry about points and draw odds. There is a lot of great hunting to be had with OTC and general tags that take no points to draw. I know that I've decided not to play the point game. I can hunt and have a great experience without the cost and stress of the point creep game. I may collect a few points in a state or two but I'll use them on a unit that only needs one or two points. They can change the rules at any time in any state and your points become worthless or diluted. This bit about giving some state $50 or whatever the cost year after year and on the really exclusive units the point creep keeps you locked outfor decades isn't worth it to me. I'm putting in for a unit that I have almost no chance to draw for chits and giggles but I'm taking the general Montana tag and going hunting . . Last year , this year , and every year I can squeeze the turnip for enough to go or my body gives out.

 

[NoWiser]

That's not true at all you only draw for half the tags so its not number of applicant's divided by total tags that is false hope my friend

Yup, and someone with 6 points in a bonus point state like Utah is actually more like 6 people applying rather than 1.

dangerousD, the first thing you should do is familiarize yourself with the difference between bonus points and preference points. There is a big difference and it will definitely affect how you plan your hunts for various states. Then you need to look at each individual state and their drawing procedure. It can be a bit overwhelming at first, but once you figure it out it's pretty easy to calculate your odds with some simple math.

 

[bigeasygator]

I put this together to try and put together a "simple" explanation on these draws. As you see, there is nothing simple about how the draw works in many states. It can get really crazy when you start factoring in the resident vs. non-resident allocation (ie, Wyoming and Arizona) and special licences vs. regular licenses (see Wyoming). I tried to keep this in plain english but it is hard to do (and I think I may have messed up some of the details but in general it's right).

Utah: Bonus/Preference. 50% of tags go to applicants with the most bonus points. 50% go to a random draw for all applicants where your name is entered an additional time for each bonus point you have. Everyone’s first choice is awarded before anyone’s second. If only one tag is available, it goes into the random drawing.

New Mexico: No Bonus/Preference. If you name is drawn, your first choice will be looked at. If this is full, your second choice will be considered before the next applicant’s first choice, on and on for all three choices. In other words, all of your choices matter. Do not put a 4th or 5th choice.

Arizona: Bonus/Preference. 20% of tags go to the applicants with the most bonus points (resident and non-resident). The remaining 80% are available in a random draw where each bonus point gets you another name in the hat. Non-residents can only take 10% of the total quota (max point pool and regular pool). Non-residents can only draw in a unit with more than one sheep tag, and are limited to 50% of the quota or two tags, whichever is less. Your first two choices on an application matter (if you are drawn and your first choice is full, your second is considered before the next applicant’s first choice).

Oregon: Preference (Deer, elk, antelope). 75% of tags go to the applicants with the most preference points. 25% of the tags go to the remainder of the applicants without preference to points. If there are less than 4 tags, they will go to the applicants with the most points (no random draw). There is no preference point system for sheep tags. A maximum of 3% of antelope tags and 5% of elk and deer tags will go to non-residents. No less than 5% and no more than 10% of sheep and goat tags go to non-residents (roughly 5-10 sheep tags per year to non-residents).

Idaho: No Bonus/Preference. Everyone’s first choice is considered before anyone’s second. A maximum of 10% of tags go to non-residents. In units with less than 10 tags, one may go to a non-resident. You can only apply for elk, deer, and antelope or sheep, goat, and moose.

Colorado: Preference point. Colorado is a true preference point state. Applicants with the most points are given a tag. If there is a “tie” in preference points and there are more applicants than tags, the applicants with the most points go into a random draw. Everyone’s first choice is considered before anyone’s second is considered. For sheep, moose, and goat it’s a little more convoluted. You need three preference points before you are even considered for a license. Once you have three preference points, a weighted bonus point system takes over (I’m not exactly sure how it works). Residents are limited to 35% of the total elk and deer tags and 10% of the total sheep, moose, and goat tags.

California: Preference. 90% of tags for deer hunts go to the applicant with the most points, 10% go to a random drawing with no preference. For zones with less than 10 tags, one tag may be issued in the random drawing. 75% of the elk, sheep, and antelope tags are awarded to applicants with the most points, the remainder go into the random draw. For units with less than 4 tags, one tag will be issued in the random draw (whether the unit has one, two, or three tags available). No non-resident quota exists. Your first choice on the draw is the only one that matters.

Nevada: Bonus. Nevada squares bonus points for every species you apply for. If you have 9 bonus points and then apply, your name will go into the hat 82 times. No preference is given to pointholders beyond that. All five hunt choices are considered before moving on to the next applicant. Nevada has separate tag numbers for non-residents and residents and, therefore, they are in a different pool.

Washington: Bonus. Like Nevada, Washington squares bonus points for every species you apply for. No preference is given to pointholders beyond that. All four hunt choices are considered before moving on to the next applicant. No non-resident quota exists.

Wyoming: Preference. 75% of all tags go to the applicants with the most points, the remaining 25% go into a random draw. For units with less than four tags, there is no random draw. Everyone’s first choice is considered before anyone’s second. In addition, there is a special license for elk and deer and a regular license, where 40% of the license pool is reserved for the special license (more expensive) and 60% for the regular license. The same 75/25% split applies to both the regular and special pool. Lastly, roughly 15% of all elk tags and 20% of all other species’ tags go to non-residents. To see how this works, if a unit has 100 tags, 15 of them would go to non-residents. Of that 15, 6 would be reserved for the special pool, and 9 would be for the regular pool. Of those 6 tags in the special pool, 4.5 (not sure if it’s 4 or 5), go to individuals with the most points, and the remaining licenses (1 or 2) go into the random draw for the special pool. Same thing for the 9 in the regular license pool – 6.75 go to those individuals with the most points (6 or 7 tags), and 2 or 3 tags go into a random draw. In this example, you can see how even with 100 total tags in a unit, you may only be eligible to draw 2 or 3 of them.

Montana: Bonus points for sheep, moose, and goat and for the special deer and elk units. Preference points for the general deer and elk. To draw a special deer or elk unit (limited entry), you need a general tag. These are awarded on a preference point system, with 75% of general tags going to applicants with the most preference points and the remainder in a random draw. Once a general tag is draw, special units are decided under a bonus point system where your bonus point for that species is squared. You may draw a general tag without a special tag, but not vice versa. Everyone’s first choice is considered before anyone’s second. Sheep, moose, and goat also operate off a bonus point squared system. Non-residents are essentially limited to 10% of the total quota.

 

[wapitibob]

Bigeasy, very nice writeup.

 

[dangerousD]

dangerousD , I hope you are going hunting every year for elk and deer while you worry about points and draw odds. There is a lot of great hunting to be had with OTC and general tags that take no points to draw. I know that I've decided not to play the point game. I can hunt and have a great experience without the cost and stress of the point creep game. I may collect a few points in a state or two but I'll use them on a unit that only needs one or two points. They can change the rules at any time in any state and your points become worthless or diluted. This bit about giving some state $50 or whatever the cost year after year and on the really exclusive units the point creep keeps you locked outfor decades isn't worth it to me. I'm putting in for a unit that I have almost no chance to draw for chits and giggles but I'm taking the general Montana tag and going hunting . . Last year , this year , and every year I can squeeze the turnip for enough to go or my body gives out.

Yes I plan to hunt at least one or two states each year with OTC tags. That's how I hunted Utah last year. I too have wondered whether to play the points game. Thanks for your reply!

 

[tipsntails7]

dangerousD , I hope you are going hunting every year for elk and deer while you worry about points and draw odds. There is a lot of great hunting to be had with OTC and general tags that take no points to draw. I know that I've decided not to play the point game. I can hunt and have a great experience without the cost and stress of the point creep game. I may collect a few points in a state or two but I'll use them on a unit that only needs one or two points. They can change the rules at any time in any state and your points become worthless or diluted. This bit about giving some state $50 or whatever the cost year after year and on the really exclusive units the point creep keeps you locked outfor decades isn't worth it to me. I'm putting in for a unit that I have almost no chance to draw for chits and giggles but I'm taking the general Montana tag and going hunting . . Last year , this year , and every year I can squeeze the turnip for enough to go or my body gives out.

i am right in line with this except for sheep, goats and moose. ill continue to hunt oregon general archery till the day i die, resident or not.

 

[charvey9]

Bigeasy...that is pretty amazing.

Good stuff that came along just as I was starting to apply for points in my non-resident state.

 

[bigeasygator]

Thanks guys! I was hoping to shave each state down to a sentence or two but some states it's just impossible too. At the end of the day I was trying to paint a picture as to how possible it was to draw. In certain states, like Arizona, even though there are tags that go into a random pool for certain units, the non-resident quota may already be met so you can forget about drawing. In other states, you may have a chance in the random pool. It just all depends.

You really need to take draw odds with a grain of salt as well. Sometimes they don't include bonus points or account for nuances in the tag allocation between residents and non-residents. Other times (like in New Mexico), they don't really account for a person being drawn on their second or third choice so it's hard to say what the true odds are (the best thing to do is sum up all the applications whether it's 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice and count this as the total pool of applicants you're applying against -- but keeping in mind that some of those 2nd and 3rd choice applicants may have been drawn for other units with their 1st or 2nd choice respectively, if that makes sense).

Like I said, it's tough and sometimes near impossible to really figure out what kind of chance you have, but with the information above and looking at the numbers you can get a feel for what it takes to draw.

 

[dangerousD]

Thank you Bigeasygator for that info! Excellent! I've learned a lot more today from everyone's responses and looked at some data on the actual bonus point odds in utah. I had not been looking at the right data before so now I have a lot better understanding now. I think I understand the difference between bonus and preference points now also.

 

[dangerousD]

All that said, now I just need to plan another hunt. I was hoping to hunt Utah and Wyoming this year but my WY general tag draw was unsuccessful...I had put in with a buddy that has drawn that tag 7 times and was successful each time he applied until I cursed him this year! Ha! May try for a hunt in Oregon with my brother that lives in Bend. Does Oregon have NR OTC tags for archery elk?

 

[JasonWi]

DD:

Yes Oregon has OTC archery bow elk. You can hunt a vast majority of the state on that tag. There are a select few units that require drawing (which I wouldn't waste your time building PP) but your brother should know which units I'm talking about.

You can hunt 2 species of elk and 2 species of deer in OR all on general OTC bow tags.

 

[tipsntails7]

For OTC oregon is very underated in my opinion. There are a ton of areas that have big bulls for archery.

 

[dangerousD]

DD:

Yes Oregon has OTC archery bow elk. You can hunt a vast majority of the state on that tag. There are a select few units that require drawing (which I wouldn't waste your time building PP) but your brother should know which units I'm talking about.

You can hunt 2 species of elk and 2 species of deer in OR all on general OTC bow tags.

For OTC oregon is very underated in my opinion. There are a ton of areas that have big bulls for archery.

I'm feeling Oregon calling my name now! Thanks guys!