Oregon Seed Numbers (We Got a Close One!)

[Jaden Bales]

ODFW just posted seed numbers yesterday.



I'm 6,600 over on Premium Pronghorn (not a great unit but still exciting). I have a fair grasp on how these things work, but anyone have a take on whether I pull this? Or any other interesting app numbers to seed numbers?

Here's my app:

 

[Flyjunky]

ODFW just posted seed numbers yesterday.

View attachment 1072000

I'm 6,600 over on Premium Pronghorn (not a great unit but still exciting). I have a fair grasp on how these things work, but anyone have a take on whether I pull this? Or any other interesting app numbers to seed numbers?

Here's my app:
View attachment 1072002

You definitely have a shot. How many applied for that hunt last year?

 

[Jaden Bales]

You definitely have a shot. How many applied for that hunt last year?

Just over 300.

 

[Flyjunky]

Just over 300.

With only 300 applicants you are looking very good

 

[Taudisio]

Really good chance you get that. I am the closest I have ever been on bighorn sheep. I’m hopeful but I expect to be burnt. I’ll know more in 2ish weeks.

 

[Jaden Bales]

Really good chance you get that. I am the closest I have ever been on bighorn sheep. I’m hopeful but I expect to be burnt. I’ll know more in 2ish weeks.

High hopes, low expectations. That's my motto! Haha. Well let us know!

Really wish there wasn't a 2 week wait, but here we are. Haha

 

[BRTreedogs]

My insight is.

Why don’t they just push the dang button & release results.

If states want to hang onto my money for awhile fine.

But release the dang results so I can plan better for other states in applying in

 

[BRTreedogs]

Really good chance you get that. I am the closest I have ever been on bighorn sheep. I’m hopeful but I expect to be burnt. I’ll know more in 2ish weeks.

How far over are you?

I felt pretty close at 200k over.

 

[MP.hunter]

I am 9,514 above seed for Elk Premium, but who knows, I thought is was in good shape 4 years ago with 18,000 over but didn’t get it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[wapitibob]

 

[Taudisio]

How far over are you?

I felt pretty close at 200k over.

60,000.
450 resident applicants for 2 tags.

 

[bowhuntercoop]

Crazy to see a draw thread and then right above it a thread for the same state to ban and outlaw all hunting….

 

[IdahoBeav]

Each year once the numbers are generated, they should flip a coin to determine whether the tags will be issued by going up or down from the seed number

 

[Taudisio]

Each year once the numbers are generated, they should flip a coin to determine whether the tags will be issued by going up or down from the seed number

Yes, let’s complicate things further.
If I had a dollar for every time I had to explain the seed numbers to people in my small circle already….I’d have $5 from yesterday alone.

 

[IdahoBeav]

Yes, let’s complicate things further.
If I had a dollar for every time I had to explain the seed numbers to people in my small circle already….I’d have $5 from yesterday alone.

You're not the only one. I can't count how many times I have explained Idaho's 2nd tag and 2nd draw process to my Oregon buddies. It seems they forget each year. Before the general tags sold out every year, it seemed that Oregonians couldn't fathom idea of buying a tag after the season had already started.

 

[Blacktail_]

Is it decent to be 35,000 over on bighorn sheep?

 

[Taudisio]

Is it decent to be 35,000 over on bighorn sheep?

Yes, that’s a decent chance depending on the tag/applicants. Statistically, you’re in the top .35%

 

[hibernation]

ODFW just posted seed numbers yesterday.

View attachment 1072000

I'm 6,600 over on Premium Pronghorn (not a great unit but still exciting). I have a fair grasp on how these things work, but anyone have a take on whether I pull this? Or any other interesting app numbers to seed numbers?

Here's my app:
View attachment 1072002

You've got about 80% odds of drawing with that seed number. Really solid, but not a guarantee.

 

[Jaden Bales]

You've got about 80% odds of drawing with that seed number. Really solid, but not a guarantee.

Noted! That's the kind of thing I was wondering. Thank you!

 

[Blacktail_]

Yes, that’s a decent chance depending on the tag/applicants. Statistically, you’re in the top .35%

Insert dumb and dumber voice “so you’re telling me there’s a chance!!” Haha