New Mexico tag strategy for nonresidents

[Gila]

Incorrect, again. If the 1st choice has a low likelihood, aka, a high number choosing that hunt code as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice, the likelihood of getting it is slim and you're now relying on your 2nd and/or 3rd choice.

This is why it matters what you choose for your choices. Normally, you choose your favorite hunt as 1st choice hoping your app is toward the top. When it's not, you want your 2nd or 3rd to carry you through because they're hunts that don't "fill up" as quickly based on how many total applicants there are choosing it as a choice.

Odds aren't derived or calculated, that's the terminology used by everyone. What you're really looking for is the likelihood of pulling that tag regardless of where your application sits. The likelihood of each tag award is dependent on the tag award event before it. The higher the likelihood, the better at pulling a tag.

Absolutely not…I obviously won’t be able to reason with you. Do what you are going to do. It isn’t in my best interest to help anyone else with their draw strategy anyway. The odds are so low for residents on any decent hunt in NM that it really doesn’t matter anyway.

 

[PredatoronthePrairie]

Seems like alot of over thinking going on for something that appears rather straightforward.

 

[roadrunner]

Seems like alot of over thinking going on for something that appears rather straightforward.

It is straightforward. You want your first choice to be the hunt you want and then you choose two others that might help you draw because the first choice is a good hunt that is tougher to draw.

If you just want to draw, you choose hunts that have higher tag numbers and not as many people applying for them.

Then there are those that just put in for what they want and hope for the best.

You hope your app sits toward the top of the list, but likely it sits somewhere in the middle.

This is why the Monte Carlo simulation doesn't apply...

 

[Serrano]

Extreme example:
What if someone else put a 100% draw tag as their first choice and 16A and 16D as their second and third choices. The odds of them drawing their second and third choices are 0%.

How would that change your estimate of the odds to draw 16A or 16D? You just never know how many second and third choices need to be considered in your calculation.

 

[madtinker]

Extreme example:
What if someone else put a 100% draw tag as their first choice and 16A and 16D as their second and third choices. The odds of them drawing their second and third choices are 0%.

How would that change your estimate of the odds to draw 16A or 16D? You just never know how many second and third choices need to be considered in your calculation.

This is a good point, and one of the things that makes calculating odds using traditional methods difficult. It will tend to predict odds as lower than they actually are.

 

[madtinker]

Seems like alot of over thinking going on for something that appears rather straightforward.

I am definitely over thinking it. But I am a dyed-in-the-wool grade A nerd, and the mathematical and coding challenge was a fun diversion.

 

[roadrunner]

Extreme example:
What if someone else put a 100% draw tag as their first choice and 16A and 16D as their second and third choices. The odds of them drawing their second and third choices are 0%.

This is an example of why the 2nd and 3rd choice wouldn't carry any weight as far as outcome. You would want to put your first two choices as 16A and 16D with the 100% guarantee as a third.

100% draw hunt codes in NM are like that for a reason. It's just to have a tag in your pocket to go hunting. With hunt codes like these, there may be 25 tags available with a total of first, second, and third choice applicants equaling less than or equal to 25.

As mentioned in post #59 that once the applications are "shuffled", the system looks at your first choice. If it's full, it goes to the second and then third. I could have a 6B muzzleloader bull (Valles Caldera) as my third choice; which would be "dumb", and you could have it as your first choice; which is normal, but because my application comes before yours and my other two choices were filled up, I draw an extremely difficult to draw hunt as a third choice because no other, or not enough, applications before mine had that as any of their choices.

This is why you cannot truly estimate "odds" with the NM draw system. All you can do is look at the likelihood of drawing a tag as that hunt code is distributed throughout the distribution of all applications that chose it as a first, second, or third choice with each award event being affected by the previous event. Eventually, that hunt code will run out of gas as the applications with that hunt code as a choice are looked at from 1 to how many chose it as a choice down the list of applications submitted from 1 to whatever the number is for that year.

The numbers I look at as a resident are the 84% available to me because that's who I'm competing against. I ignore the total available tags for a hunt code because 16% aren't available to me because I don't play the outfitter wellfare game.

FWIW: 2025 had a total of 262,063 applications between Resident and Non-Resident combined that were "shuffled", and if someone applied for everything they could, their 8 applications are distributed somewhere in the mix that was "shuffled" only one time. The metered or evenly spaced distribution would be an application showing up one time every 32,757 applications.

Simply put; load your application with the hunts you want in the order you want them and hope for the best...