ID is a state I’ve never applied or considered, especially in recent years with all of the issues come tag sale date. When I heard it was going to draw, it jumped onto my radar, until I saw the non refundable hunting license cost. A $185 gamble (ID) is a lot different than a $65 gamble (NM). Yes, other states you pay more, but you get a preference point in return. I don’t know, maybe my view is skewed.
It will be interesting how the first few years shake out. If odds are close to your prediction, the cost/value would not be there, personally. If it’s closer to 40% for a decent, not premium, unit, maybe there is value.
I’m also not a fan that you only can put in for a single limited draw species when applying. Just my opinion and if it works for ID and its residents, that’s great. It’s probably what keeps odds for certain limited draw hunts good, relative term.