New GoHunt Predictive Odds

[Zzyzx]

GoHunt has an amateur statistician in charge. And often doesn’t even get the data correct on what actually happened last year.

And now they want to sell a look at the future?

Too many unknowns in the calculation to think these hobbyist statisticians have it figured out.

The guy in charge of stats at GoHunt has an I.T. tech degree. Not even a 4 year stats degree. Much less the advanced degree it would really take to manage a project like this.

Saying “95% confidence interval” over and over doesn’t make you smart.

 

[desertdwellerdyl]

I got their trial to compare their numbers to the odds I was getting with a code I built (I was just using 2024 odds, not predictive) and the numbers are pretty similar to each other. I don't think their odds are as accurate as they are saying and coining their work as "proprietary formulas" is wild.

OnX's odds are even worse.

What's really blasphemous is how AZGFD tries to put out a document called "Draw Odds". That one should not be used at all IMO.

 

[Beendare]

There is a lot of info most people don't ever see. As an example, last year in WY there were ~27,200 full price NR Elk apps, and ~139,900 people who never applied for an elk hunt, only buying the point. Those 139K people are invisible, and don't show up on the odds reports. Having all that info, knowing the point levels of those 139K, and the draw databases for the last 5+ years, Gohunt could get a pretty good idea of future draw trends.

NE​	20026​
NSE​	6157​
NYE​	1050​
TOTAL FP Elk​	27233​
​	​
​	​
NEPF​	156973​
NYEPF​	10173​
TOTAL points​	167146​
​	​
POINT ONLY, never applied for a hunt​	139913​

You nailed it Bob....great insights as usual

 

[cnelk]

GoHunt has an amateur statistician in charge. And often doesn’t even get the data correct on what actually happened last year.

And now they want to sell a look at the future?

Too many unknowns in the calculation to think these hobbyist statisticians have it figured out.

The guy in charge of stats at GoHunt has an I.T. tech degree. Not even a 4 year stats degree. Much less the advanced degree it would really take to manage a project like this.

Saying “95% confidence interval” over and over doesn’t make you smart.

I was reviewing CPW stats against GoHunt today for a Rokslider requesting some help.

Definitely difference in data for the hunt code I looked at - i.e. 33%!!! In draw odds.

 

[Turkeygetpwnd38]

I bet I still won't draw!

 

[thegoosano]

I bet I still won't draw!

View attachment 842076

Oh shit


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